Value bets on the river

RoundTower

Somewhere in Stewart Reuben's Omaha book he says something like "you will notice that very few of these hands have a bet on the river. Even fewer have a bet and a call." He was describing a loose and aggressive game here, so one would expect that in other games, there would be even less river action.

Here are two hands I've played recently where I had to think about the river.

1. 1-2 online game. Table is quite tight. I haven't seen much of MP's play so far. I have about €300, he has about €200. He open-raises to 7 preflop and everyone else folds. I call in the big blind with 458T, one suit. Flop is 773. I check and he checks. Turn is a 4. I check and he checks. River is another 4. I'm almost certainly ahead. Do I bet? What if I had T985?

2. Live €50 game, €1-€1 game. Extremely tough table, one or two bad players, but it wasn't really worth playing. I have about €425. UTG limps and I limp with QQTT one suit, diamonds. Next player raises to €5. MP raises to €20, there is one call from a very strong player in late position, I call, and the player on my left makes it €75 all in. He is the worst player at the table, and certainly doesn't need a monster to do this. Everyone calls and there is €300 in the pot.

The flop is A97 with two hearts and the 7 of diamonds. I check. MP, a loose aggressive good player, checks. The strong player bets €60 all in and we both call.

Turn is the J of diamonds giving me a straight draw and a flush draw. I check and MP checks. I believe he would have bet by now with any two pair.

River is a black Q. The pot is €480 and I have about €300 left. MP has about the same. I have second trips and the straight blockers. Do I bet?

RoundTower

Something is wrong there. Maybe the 4 of hearts came on the flop. It isn't all that important, the details are correct.

Hectorjelly

Hand 1 Bet, you have nothing to lose

Hand 2 Its looks like you have MP3 beat, But do you think you will get a call from a worse hand? Will he ever fold a better hand? I think the answer is no to both of them. Hes unlikely to bluff either with 2 people all in, and he knows you are unlikely to bluff either, so I would check.

Marq

Hand One: Bet. You can be almost positive that you are ahead, and given how the betting (or lack thereof) has gone, you may well get called by someone holding any overpair to the board.

Hand Two: Much tougher. The presence of the blockers in your hand originally pushed me towards betting, but the more I think about, the more I think this is a check. Without the nut straight, how many hands can he have that are going to call any reasonably sized bet here on the river? The only reason I might bet is because I doubt that even if your three queens are beating him, they may not be beating everyone else in for the main pot (three aces seems likley considering the pre-flop action, plus there are two tens still out there, one of which may well have just made a straight). this is a difficult decision. Check.

RoundTower

Marq wrote:

The only reason I might bet is because I doubt that even if your three queens are beating him, they may not be beating everyone else in for the main pot (three aces seems likley considering the pre-flop action, plus there are two tens still out there, one of which may well have just made a straight)

This is flawed logic. If I'm winning the main pot, I would like an extra bit in the side pot. If I'm not winning the main pot, I would still like an extra bit on the side. You can't just think "OK the pot is big enough, I'm happy with it". The pot is never big enough if you're going to win it.

mewso

RoundTower wrote:

This is flawed logic.

mmmmm Flawed Logic. Never loses.

Marq

RoundTower wrote:

This is flawed logic. If I'm winning the main pot, I would like an extra bit in the side pot. If I'm not winning the main pot, I would still like an extra bit on the side. You can't just think "OK the pot is big enough, I'm happy with it". The pot is never big enough if you're going to win it.

You've misunderstood me Dave. What I'm saying is that I was originally inclined to bet because of your second point here "if I'm not winning the main pot, I would still like an extra bit on the side." You don't honestly think that I ever think the pot is big enough do you? Sorry if my original post wasn't clear. I had written a reply advocating a call, but then the more I thought about it, the more I thought you wouldn't get called by anything but the nuts, as the likelihood of him having any sort of hand that could call a river bet is so low.

RoundTower

I still think the answer is the same whether or not I expect to win the main pot.

In the end I decided to bet €125, an amount that gives him a chance to call with AQ or 77 or the like if he hadn't bet by now. He folded, showed the nut flush draw in hearts and gave out to me that it was a stupid bet, and suggested that he could easily have had 3 aces. I don't believe this is true - whatever about 3 sevens he would have reraised preflop or raised the flop with aces.

It's a close decision for me, probably so close that if I didn't have TT I wouldn't bet. Perhaps I made the wrong decision.