Possibillity of a pro taliban uprising in Pakistan

Clintons Cat

Firstly,Appologies for my recent absence i havent felt much like talking about politics recently.:(

Worst Case Scenario

I was just wondering if anyone else was worried about the possibillities of Taliban uprising within pakistan given the Military Rulers descision to allow the US to allow US airplanes to use pakistan airspace and refuelling facillities within the country.There was also a piece on the BBC news stating the US were sending troops to "help supervise the defence of key military installations,including thier nuclear facillities".
Does anyone else see the posibillities of the United States is being manoevered into proping up an unpopular unelected government,who by their reliance on external help further undermines their own legitimacy in the eyes of their own population? Taliban guerrillas insurging through the afganistan boarder with pakistan, and within pakistan population <notably within the Lehoare and kashmir districts> would find plentiful targetsfor the hit and run tactics which proved so effective against the soviet Afganistan occupation forces in the 1980s.

The similarities with What happenend to the Boa Dai Government of South vietnam should be readilly apparent.And a Sobering Concept

It seems the US is Embarking on a Conflict without a clear set of objectives,no amount of saturation bombing will dislodge the Taliban,It will fail as surely as the saturation bombing of vietnam failed to dislodge the Vietminh,and north vietnam had a hell of a lot more viable industrial and military targets to aim at.
Sanctions against Afganistan have not helped Moderate the actions or policies of the Taliban,nor has the humanitarian lifting of the sanctions either.One might reasonably suspect that the recent arrests of humanitarian aid workers on trumped up charges might have been motivated out of a desire to have a few bargaining counters to bring to the table when the Post World Trade Centre Diplomatic wrangling began.
I do not believe The Taliban would hand oven Bin Ladden voluntarily or under duress.Though their calls for the United States to supply prove of his involvement as a prequisite for such action,will be used to great political propaganda advantage once the USA and Britain starts military action.


Best Case Scenario

As to the long term.
Even if the Taliban regime is toppled and forced into exhile and bin laden arrested and put on trial.What then?
The Russians are unlikely to accept US occupation of Afganistan.
US pressence On their borders close to their oil supplies in the Caucuses and threating oil supply routes into the middle east.
They have watched Nato encroach into eastern europe via crisis management,it is unlikely they will be willing to accept further encroachment into its former sphere of influence on its southern boarder with such pragmatism.It is likely that despite Putins words of support for International action against terrorism,his commitment begins and ends with his own policies within Chetchenia.Reports that he has recently mobilised 400,000 troops on the Afgan Boarder might be a policy to contain the Taliban, on the otherhand it might be a force assembled to take advantage of a weakened Taliban after a US bombing campain.
Throw into the equation chinas boarder with afganistan and the US detemination to site missile defence systems in strategic areas around the globe,and underlying hostillities between the US and China over Tia Wan,makes me sceptical that China would sit by and watch as America occupied Afganistan.

The Exact resons why,intelligent western educated men would voluntarily fly a planeload of innocent men women and children into a building probally died with the hi jackers.
Those that ordered the attacks must be brought to justice.But those who take the moral highground must be sure their actions conform to the ideals of international justice that they claim to uphold.
One might question if Mr Bush will be quite as quick to renage on international treaties and protocol in the future.
One might suspect his commitment to the notions of international order might quickly evaporate once he has exacted his pound of flesh against an impoverished and long suffering people.

...............

Missiles with Cameras strapped to them are so 20th Century,
What the public want is Cameras in Bullets.
Instant justice,replayable on TV
Over and Over again from various angles
..................

Clintons Cat

Rather than starting more threads or cluttering up other peoples.,here is some more information


For anyone interested in this here is the full statement issued in febuary 1998,purportedly by osama bin laden.

http://www.fas.org/irp/world/para/docs/980223-fatwa.htm


here is a run down of his Al-Qa'ida organization. this site predates the wtc bombing
http://www.fas.org/irp/world/para/ladin.htm
testomony of a former member of Al-Qa'ida
http://www.terrorism.com/analysis/analysis-russia-051200.shtml

also worth checking out
http://www.fas.org/irp/world/pakistan/threats/index.html

In January 1993, the United States warned Pakistan that it was under "active continuing review" for possible inclusion on the Department of State list of terrorist countries for its alleged support of terrorist activities in the Indian states of Punjab and Kashmir. By July, however, the United States had withdrawn its threat, having determined that Pakistan had implemented "a policy for ending official support for terrorism in India."

Note the phrase "implemented a policy for ending official support"
Sanctions imposed 1n 1998 against Pakistan and India following both states violation of the Nuclear Non Proliferation treaty have been lifted in the wake of their compliance with USA policy in dealing with the Taliban.The message sent out to the developing world especially those keen to develop nuclear weapons is clear.

here are some sites that are worth browsing for background infomation and editorial comment
http://www.terrorism.com/index.shtml
http://www.guerrillanews.com/
http://www.fas.org