Martin Cullen...the 34 Billon Euro Man

DublinWriter

34 Billion Euro? Let’s be realistic here.

What single large-scale state project *ever* came in on-time and on-budget?

None. Using the LUAS as a template, It won’t be 34 Billion Euro, it will cost over 100 billion Euro and will only deliver two-thirds of what was initially presented (remember, the Airport metro link was promised under the original LUAS project and factored into the original optimistic project costs).

Consider the careers of most of the politicians making the announcements today. Most will be retired in the next 10 to 15 years and won’t be there to be accountable for failed projects.

Turning St.Stephen’s Green in an underground Grand Central Station? Remember the chaos that putting a couple of rail line downs was?

The lesson I think that FF have learnt is that if you’re gonna lie, lie big. Remember, all this is from the party that promised to end waiting lists by Spring 2005 at the last general election. This from the party that promised 2000 extra guards in 2004, then promised 3000 extra guards in 2005. We still have roughly the same amount we had in 2003.

Most of todays announcements were baubles promised before. The plan to extend the M50 to six lanes was announced at the 2004 Ard-Fheis.

However, what we got today wasn’t a single bauble, it was the whole effin’ Christmas Tree.

What we say today was final-orders at the last chance saloon by politicians in their mid-50’s trying to secure that last election at any costs, even to their junior-ministers and their party.

sceptre

DublinWriter wrote:

What single large-scale state project *ever* came in on-time and on-budget?

AFAIK the Shannon hydro scheme came in on time and within budget. Mind you, it wasn't yesterday and the government didn't have much to do with constructing it apart from saying "go" and sending someone in a suit to open it (which sounds similar to the current PPP movement but in those days there wasn't an open chequebook to pay extra if Siemens couldn't finish it by the time they said they would). And for the wags who are going to point it out anyway, FF weren't in government either.

Most will be retired in the next 10 to 15 years and won’t be there to be accountable for failed projects.

There's half of an episode of Yes Prime Minister dedicated to this. Regardless of whether they've retired or not, even if they're still elected and still in government, Jimmy Chancer won't be the Minister for Lollipops at that point unless something odd happens to move him back into the role after being switched around every two years (at most) in reshuffles so he can just blame the other guy. It's win-win.

dahamsta

I was laughing my ass off watching him on the news earlier, there was an awful lot of looking up and to the left. There was probably something off-screen distracting him, but it still made him look very dodgy indeed.

adam

DublinWriter

sceptre wrote:

AFAIK the Shannon hydro scheme came in on time and within budget. Mind you, it wasn't yesterday

No, it was in the mid/late 1920's, almost a hundred years ago. You might as well start talking about Victorian engineering projects and Roman Roads.

Sparks

Well, the Aquatic Center was supposedly in on time and on budget.
(Pity it's now leaking, but hey, what can you do? :rolleyes: )

tba

Well Rome wasnt built in a day either. I think I will reserve judgement untill a tender package has been drafted. €34b seems like good value... too good.

Nuttzz

Since the fixed priced contract scheme came into place projects have been delivered on time or earlier and on budget

Recent examples Dundalk Western bypass, Monasterevin by pass

Because of these scheme road building contracts arent the gravy train the used to be, these same will apply to this project.

However for this to get off the ground planning laws must be changed to prevent every tom dick and harry who objects to the amount of daisy's being destroyed by the project.

To write off an project the day after it was launched? Well they do say the Irish love to knock their own....

http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=9&si=1498081&issue_id=13211

Five reasons why it will work:

1 A 10-year plan ends the stop/go pattern of previous major investment scaled over shorter timeframes.

2 Ireland now pays only €1 in every €25 on debt relief, compared to €1 in every €6 raised by the public finances.

3 The numbers at work have jumped by half in a decade - we now have the population to pay for it all.

4 The scale is such that even if the Government was replaced by an FG/Lab coalition, they wouldn't dare scrap the grand vision.

5 It will work, because it must work. We have no option but to build now for future generations.


It won't work
Five reasons why it won't work:

1 Construction inflation can fluctuate notoriously. It was nearly five times inflation in 2000.

2 We've never taken on a capital investment job of this scale before. It's like imagining Ireland could put a man on the moon in the same timeframe.

3 Making different parts of the jigsaw dependent on delivery of other pieces is a recipe for knock-on delay and failure.

4 We have some of the most bureaucratic planning laws in Europe and a Constitution that guarantees the right of every nature lover or heritage-hugger to fight major development through the courts.

5 It can't meet need. All such plans grossly underestimate the eventual capacity required, so that a whole new transport mesh will be needed when this one finally arrives

Zombrex

DublinWriter wrote:

No, it was in the mid/late 1920's, almost a hundred years ago. You might as well start talking about Victorian engineering projects and Roman Roads.

The point he was making is that teh Shannon power plant was built cause we needed a power plant, not so some politicon could look good and destract from the sh*t storm his party is in. And it also wasn't a "sure lets give it to my cousin larry's construction firm in Trim, Larry and Co.", they gave it to a German crowd who knew what they were doing, did it well and got it in on time and on budget (afaik). Lets see how the new Metro is handled shall we ... :rolleyes:

Dimitri

The single biggest problem facing this problem is land aquisition. He evaded this question twice when asked on prime time if it was sorted. Simply they dont yet have the land it is standard proceedure in city and county councils that before their proposeals go to the board they get the land or else get and actionable agreement to be sold the land. Whatever about the budget we wont see anything like what was displayed yesterday.

Also Spain showed the world how to quickly cheaply install a proper metro system by making a constitutional amendment that all land more than 10 metres under ground is state land therefore no compensation for tunneling. Of course they tunnelled properly when making the madrid metro so no one needed compensation for damage caused to their property by the tunneling either.

Cork

It is about time Dublin got an intergrated transport system.

It is about time the western rail link was opened.

It is about time that this country got decent roads.

This plan was needed.

DublinWriter

Nuttzz wrote:

Since the fixed priced contract scheme came into place projects have been delivered on time or earlier and on budget

Recent examples Dundalk Western bypass, Monasterevin by pass

All greenfield projects and using what'd I'd term Turkish 'slave' labour. Do you seriously think that Gamma will come back and bid for RFTs here knowing that they'd actually have to pay their workers a decent wage next time around?

Firstly, they're seriously proposing to build 'Grand Central Station' underground in St. Stephen's Green.

Harcourt St. looked like the Somme for the two years it took to lay down a couple of rail tracks.

Can you imagine what St.Stephen's Green will be like for years if they are seriously proposing to build an underground version of Grand Central Station? One of the city's greatest amenities and tourist attractions will be turned into a crater.

Nuttzz wrote:

To write off an project the day after it was launched? Well they do say the Irish love to knock their own....

Well I see you fell for Cullen's slick PR then. 80% of what was annouced yesterday wasn't new. It was just a re-release of the same old FF guff, promises and fairydust.

DublinWriter

It kind of annoys me everytime someone mentions how cheaply Madrid got their Metro and how cheap everything is over there.

....the reason is....duh....the wages are equally low there!

Plus as Dimitri pointed out, the legislation the Spainish passed giving the state right to land underground. (this can have a flipside - a US state, Utah I think, recently did this, and evicted hundreds of local farmers when a large oil field was found on under their land).

But this won't happen here given the enormous power of property developers in this country and the political culture of brown-bagism

Cork

DublinWriter wrote:

But this won't happen here given the enormous power of property developers in this country and the political culture of brown-bagism

Are householders that the Dublin port tunnel is going under crackiing the champagne corks yet?

This county needs a decent transport system, an intergrated transport system for Dublin is urgent.

With all large projects you'll find plain old fashioned begrudgery. All developed countries have decent infrastructures.

For Foriegn Direct Investment - this is essential.

DublinWriter

Cork wrote:

With all large projects you'll find plain old fashioned begrudgery. All developed countries have decent infrastructures.

I agree, we need this infrastructure badly, but it just won't happen for the la-la-land figure that FF project (34 billion) and in the time-scales that FF promised.

Cronus333

I think that it's a bid for re-election. a pretty desperate one. like almost everyone else.....

But it would be nice when (or if) its finished.

It would be funny if it was finished under time and under budget- when the opposition get their hands on the half finished project next election! hilarious stuff.

Cork

Cronus333 wrote:

I think that it's a bid for re-election. a pretty desperate one. like almost everyone else...

But better transport systems are needed. They are not an optional extra.

It is about time that a government will invest money in the infrasture of this country making up for years of neglect.

I personally would have brought the western rail link to Sligo. More rather than less is needed.

Cork

DublinWriter wrote:

I agree, we need this infrastructure badly, but it just won't happen for the la-la-land figure that FF project (34 billion) and in the time-scales that FF promised.

It is pretty common that projects in both the public and private sector are not either delivered on time or on budget.

DublinWriter

Cork wrote:

It is about time that a government will invest money in the infrasture of this country making up for years of neglect.

Years of neglect, meaning the last ten years maybe? *grin*

DublinWriter

Cork wrote:

It is pretty common that projects in both the public and private sector are not either delivered on time or on budget.

Since when did two wrongs make a right?

Lots of projects in the private sector get completed on time and under budget. The problem is that it's not a major news item when an organisation actually get a multi-million Euro project right.

Projects, especially IT ones are like personal hygiene. Get it right and no one notices, get it wrong and everyone notices.

Nuttzz

DublinWriter wrote:

All greenfield projects and using what'd I'd term Turkish 'slave' labour. Do you seriously think that Gamma will come back and bid for RFTs here knowing that they'd actually have to pay their workers a decent wage next time around?

Plenty of construction compnaies in the country not to mention europe, fix price contracts are the way forward

DublinWriter wrote:

Firstly, they're seriously proposing to build 'Grand Central Station' underground in St. Stephen's Green.

Harcourt St. looked like the Somme for the two years it took to lay down a couple of rail tracks.

the is a large difference between laying overground tracks and having to divert utilities compared to digging underneath them

DublinWriter wrote:

Can you imagine what St.Stephen's Green will be like for years if they are seriously proposing to build an underground version of Grand Central Station? One of the city's greatest amenities and tourist attractions will be turned into a crater..

shows us the links that actually prove they will make the green look like a crater

DublinWriter wrote:

Well I see you fell for Cullen's slick PR then. 80% of what was annouced yesterday wasn't new. It was just a re-release of the same old FF guff, promises and fairydust.

Nice to see some integrated public transport plans though, I have get to see the oppositions plans if they come up with a sensible one I'd happily support it, after all I think we all want to see proper public transport in this country

jrey1981

I have visions of Stephens Green becoming another Eyre Square fiasco...

All the contractors and materials suppliers must be rubbing their hands with glee at the thought of more taxpayer funded, high profit-margin infrastructure work

pete

this is all well and good but i want to know why the turkey's main election promise was left out

BRINGING THE DART TO DINGLE

invincibleirish

2 We've never taken on a capital investment job of this scale before. It's like imagining Ireland could put a man on the moon in the same timeframe.

i think we should have this,the US, USSR/Russia,China and ireland in a space race is far more exciting, i dont live in Dublin or its hinterlands so a space program would have the same impact on me as the main provisions of the plan.

Dimitri

invincibleirish wrote:

i think we should have this,the US, USSR/Russia,China and ireland in a space race is far more exciting, i dont live in Dublin or its hinterlands so a space program would have the same impact on me as the main provisions of the plan.

Nor do i live in Dublin but if €34 million euro's of my taxes is going to be spent i'd like to think its going to be spent properly, and as yet without fixed contracts which penalize the contractor if the job runs over time and without the land aquired its just not going to happen. I dont think any of us have to be reminded that the price of land never drops, the speed with which it increases in value may slow down but land never drops in value.

cyclopath2001

Dimitri wrote:

Nor do i live in Dublin but if €34 million euro's of my taxes is going to be spent i'd like to think its going to be spent properly,

Well, just look at Dublin's Strategic Cycle Network. €30 million was allegedly spent on that & it's a shambles. The C&AG was unable to find out just how much was spent on cycle tracks & gave up.

Dimitri

cyclopath2001 wrote:

Well, just look at Dublin's Strategic Cycle Network. €30 million was allegedly spent on that & it's a shambles. The C&AG was unable to find out just how much was spent on cycle tracks & gave up.

If the picture in your sig is anything to go by i'd say not one penny was spent on a strategic cycle network:)

extragon

Is there anyone who thinks this is a terrible plan?
A city the size of Dublin needs a single "hub" - so you can get from anywhere to anywhere with one change. ( Connolly Station? )
Forget NYC, look at any medium sized European city; it's all been done before, properly.
And what if they only half build it - leaving a disconnected metro line and other passengers deposited in the new station out near the Point depot?
And where else would they think of tunneling under low density suburbs like Glasnevin to reach an airport that is surrounded by green fields, and could be connected to the DART?

invincibleirish

i think its a poor plan, it does nothing for the NSS, only increases urban sprawl around dublin,i think the department of finance takes alot of the blame here. what i would like to have seen done would be transport plan done for each region,e.g. greater Dublin, Cork metropolitan area, Limerick-Shannon-north Tipp., Waterford-suir region.

whilst a great deal of imagination and forward thinking(or making up for backwards planning you may say) was applied to dublin and its potential needs, it was not the case elsewhere. alas the department of finance were pretty stingy so the money that was released had to go to the main benefactor.

some of my own personal criticisms of the plan include:

No buses-disastrous for all the cities,no new buses for 10 yrs at least.

Dublin airport- it does not make sense to me that a metro passes under greenfields and smaller density suburbs, a DART spur would more then suffice,people talk about the WRC as a purely political motivated project but to my mind the airport swords metro is just as bad.

Orbital Metro(metro west)/luas from lucan to city centre- surely it make more sense for there to be an orbital LUAS for west dublin and a metro for Lucan to city centre,

WRC- as mentioned elsewhere, the WRC appears to be nothing but a politically motivated project, a white elephant if you will, bar athenry & oranmore to galway, i cannot see any justification for this line being re-opened.

-as last poster highlighted, Dublin will have Connolly,heuston,pearse st., Spencers dock and stephens green as rail hubs, Cullen spoke of joined up thinking but does a fistful of main stations in a small-medium size capital city make any sense?