Swings/Variance in poker

Amaru

Can somebody(probably one of the pros/semi pros) explain why there's downswings in poker(and what causes them), as its something i've been curious about for some time? Why is it that cash game players go on long losing streaks, and stt players can go for 15-20 tournaments without moneying once. Is it psychological? Probability based? Can they be overcome by stepping away from the game for a while, or do you have play through it? (Also, i do understand why you can't win all the time, but this seems to be something different, long periods of time with consistent loss)

Lplate

One word sums this up for me. Confidence. Same as any sport, when you have confidence you play well, when you don't you do silly things that you should'nt. It's an inner thing that you can't quantify and when you're short of it you fail to identify. That's why you can go on losing streaks. When things are going well you take everything for granted, even when beaten, because you are confident you are making the right decisions. When things are going badly you persuade yourself that your luck is running bad or that the poorer players are sucking out. In reality, you're giving out the wrong signals and opponents are reading weakness and capitalising on situations that you would have tied down if confident.

Marq

I entrely disagree. Downswings do not occur because of confidence. True, if you're not playing well, you are more likely to lose, but to say that the only only reason a winning player would have a downswing is because his confidence is low is utterly ridiculous.

In the case of a good, winning player, downsings will occur becuase probability says so. Nobody (nobody) wins every session that they play. Bad beats and bad luck see to that. The smart players accept that they could have a large and unexpected downswing and bankroll themselves accordingly.The idiots go broke.

In answer to some of the questions by the original poster:
Psychology can play a part, confidence does play a role, as you wouild expect it to, but someone that never goes on tilt, and never varies their play whether winning or losing, and is a good, winning player, can still suffer a horrendous downswing. This leads me to believe that it is probability based.

If you play for a living, you must play through it. Step down a level or two, minimise your losses when you are running bad. change your game (stts for cash games etc). taking a break is always a good idea, whether you are winning or losing, but for those of us who play for a living we're going to have to hit the tables at some point.

In short, downswings occur because God is a bastard.

ocallagh

Poker is a game of skill and chance. Some players believe it to be 40% chance and 60% skill. In such a game, swings are inebitable..

A bad run of cards for a regular player may last a week or two.. This will in turn affect their confidence and it might take a few weeks to recover. In times like these you should take a break from poker or drop to smaller games. A lot of players dont take this advice.. and sometimes do the opposite.. they up the stakes and generally go bust.. Over time, a professional player will ride out the bad luck and the 60% chance they have over the fish will come through for them.. well, that's the plan!

ocallagh

Marq wrote:

In short, downswings occur because God is a bastard.

LOL! Next time i take a hit i'll remember that line to cheer me up!

Amaru

Marq wrote:

I entrely disagree. Downswings do not occur because of confidence. True, if you're not playing well, you are more likely to lose, but to say that the only only reason a winning player would have a downswing is because his confidence is low is utterly ridiculous.

In the case of a good, winning player, downsings will occur becuase probability says so. Nobody (nobody) wins every session that they play. Bad beats and bad luck see to that. The smart players accept that they could have a large and unexpected downswing and bankroll themselves accordingly.The idiots go broke.

In answer to some of the questions by the original poster:
Psychology can play a part, confidence does play a role, as you wouild expect it to, but someone that never goes on tilt, and never varies their play whether winning or losing, and is a good, winning player, can still suffer a horrendous downswing. This leads me to believe that it is probability based.

If you play for a living, you must play through it. Step down a level or two, minimise your losses when you are running bad. change your game (stts for cash games etc). taking a break is always a good idea, whether you are winning or losing, but for those of us who play for a living we're going to have to hit the tables at some point.

In short, downswings occur because God is a bastard.

This would seem to be a good answer, based more on fact than opinion. The reason i don't believe it to be psychological is that if you look at the top performers in any sport, they do not regularly have long periods of bad performance. This leads me to believe it has to do with the "luck" element of poker, where natural probability will throw a long losing streak to counteract long winning streaks. Confidence may play something of a part in it, but the top players in the world, who know they're the top players in the world, are hardly short on confidence.

Anybody else any opinions?

Hectorjelly

Its easy to understand if you break it down to the fundamentals. A good poker player is one who is constantly making good + EV decisions. But the edge that s/he has is never that great. In short they are flipping endless coins and getting paid slightly better that 1:1 on them, miss a few in a row and suddenly you have a downswing. Chess players dont go on bad runs (and if they do they are Psychological) because their edge in every game is so great.

xtrac

Hectorjelly wrote:

Chess players dont go on bad runs (and if they do they are Psychological) because their edge in every game is so great.

Is it also worth noting that this is also because chess is a game of perfect information, where are poker is a game of imperfect information? or have I missed the point?

-Roy

Hectorjelly

xtrac wrote:

Is it also worth noting that this is also because chess is a game of perfect information, where are poker is a game of imperfect information? or have I missed the point?

-Roy

The fact that its a game of perfect information is one of the reasons why there are no swings, if a player could take a pair of queens out his pocket at random intervals in a chess game they would be more similar!

The Troll

I think downswings occur as a result of more than one thing; namely bad beats, bad cards, bad luck and sometimes tilt as a result of any of these 3 things. I tend to stop playing for a half hour or so now if I suffer a bad beat.

I've recently started playing low blind cash games, as when I started atr 1/2 I was losing regularly, where as I was winning regularly in STTs. I've now moved down to 10c/20c and find that I'm in the green almost everytime I play as the standard at that lvel is quite poor(many many fish). I think if you play at a level where you're better than 95% of the opposition, then downswings won't really be that big of a factor.

Spiritus

Hectorjelly wrote:

.....if a player could take a pair of queens out his pocket at random intervals in a chess game ...

I am asking why he has the queens in the pocket.

Why?

hotspur

Hectorjelly is spot on about the coinflips metaphor, the most accurate description I've ever read about the edge in poker is that you all sit down and flip coins for your chips, and if you're a skilled player you have 120 chips compared to the less skilled players who have 100 chips. Nl hold em is inherently high in variance, and it is my belief that the very very vast majority of players who win money in a session do so because the the cards were kind to them.

Downswings as a temporal phenomenon depend on the amount of time one plays in a day. You are extremely unlikely to suffer a 2 week terrible beating downswing playing every day, 8 hours a day, multitabling, purely based on the variance. If you only play for 1 hour a day then a 2 week downswing based on the variance of the cards is possible.

Most serious downswings are psychologically based, rooted in ambivalence or downright psychological poker fatigue. I was always amazed at how better I played when I had taken a week or 2 off, it all seemed fresher and the right moves more urgently applied. Players don't forget how to play correctly, they just sometimes don't care enough to make the right move - they get bored, frustrated, and annoyed with poker at times. Players can stop caring about winning hands, pots, and money. And this leads to "mysterious" downswings.

And also poker players can lose "it". The "it" you need to succeed in cash game poker above low limits is a sometimes ephemeral mixture of things which is closely linked to who you are, how you are feeling, and how your life is going for you. These are mutable things and so then is one's ability to really cut it at poker. Every poker player will go through upswings and downswings, run hot and cold, because that's the way people's lives run. You cannot abstract how you are running in poker from how you are feeling and getting on generally because in poker you bring yourself to the table like in no other game in the world, that's why I'm fascinated by it as a psychologist.

I advise that whenever you see yourself making a call when you *know* you're beaten because "well whatever", then stop playing straight away, and take a week off. The game will be there for you a week later, and so will your bankroll.

ps I disagree that chess is a game of complete information (the most important information is what moves your opponent is going to play in the future), and chess players do run bad. I know I used to tilt viciously at chess

Daithio

Normally I'd disagree with Marq, as I think alot of swings are more to do with the psychology of poker and not the beats. But after the beats I've taken over the past two days I think I'll have to change my opinion. The last 3 tournaments I've gone out of I've been ahead by as much as 95.35 % and the 'least' I was ahead was 91.31%, when my AA got cracked by Q8 on an 844 flop. The worst was runner runner flush against my set, and my 1010 against A33 on a 1033 board. All in all they've cost me about €1000 and a really good shot at an EPT ticket. Sick. Bad runs are all about the cards.

Doc Farrell

yeah, that was a nice flush..... er, i mean, sorry about that chief.