Definitely ahead - ever fold?

The Troll

Now i've asked a few people this question and i've got very different replies from them, so I'm interested to see what everyone here thinks.

Now this question relates only to STTs and only to preflop action.

You know you are marginally ahead and your chance of winning in a showdown with the next best preflop hand is somewhere in the range of 52%-58%.

UTG moves all-in and you're 2nd to act. You don't know what the rest of the table are going to do. All you do know is your ahead of everyone else.

So in a 9 handed situation would you call or fold when it is:

1. The first hand
2. 3 Players down - you've less chips than UTG
3. On the bubble - you've less chips than UTG

Quick edit: In situations 2 and 3 you have an average stack and UTG is chip leader.

careca

You have to call everytime. The only reason I would fold, is if its a flat payout with the first 2/3 players getting the same prize and its one of the (major) chip leaders who bets and I am nearly equal in chips. If its an STT, with a staggered payout, then call everytime. Otherwise whats the point of doing the odds in the first place ?

Is it omaha

Daithio

I don't know what hand you can have that you can know you are ahead by these percentages and in these situations, but assuming there was one I would fold in the first two and call in the last. This is because in the first two situtations you are essentially risking your whole tournament on a coinflip, but your chances of going on to cash if you do double up are not doubling. In the last situation you should call as it is significantly increasing your chances of cashing, enough to warrant taking a coinflip situation.

ionapaul

1. Fold - With 7 players yet to act and so early in the game, I think it would be a foolhardy to call here, even being ahead.
2. With some table knowledge, this suddenly becomes a harder decision! Are those left to act tight or loose? If I were fairly certain of no-one else becoming involved, I would probably act - of course, depending on the hands involved and my stack relative to everyone else's! If UTG and my stacks are much bigger than the remaining 4 players, I mightn't get involved.
3. I would probably call here unless my stack was a lot bigger than the remaining 2 players, in which case I would bide my time.

Will be interesting to see what everyone thinks.

edit* 3 near simultaneous replies! Cool...

Norwich Fan Rob

With no knowledge of the table, and an above average ROI on stt's, i see absolutely no need to risk going out on hand one of an STT, i would call here with aces, but not with anything that might be a near coin flip. Let the poor players take the coin flips and try and get lucky, and if u got a decent game, u will get a few opportunities throughout the first few levels to build up your stack.

Second one would depend on how the table and the all in opponent had played to date.

Third one i would probably call, the money is waited towards the winner, take a slight edge to double up at this stage, especially as blinds are usually big by bubble time. (i usually play 6 handed, 4.5 buys ins for first, 1.5 for 2nd, bubble is 3rd, and in these, a double up chance with 3 left would be a definite push if u thought/knew u had an edge).

www.norwichfan.blogspot.com

Hectorjelly

if your going to fold any of the three then fold the 3rd one.

The Troll

Interesting how everyone thinks differently. I'd almost fold all 3

The Snapper

I'd fold all three. No need to take a near coin flip when you have avg stack.
Re; #1
I read a nice quote recently on a similar issue. " Would you rather play 52 stt's with with 3000 chips or 100 with 1500 chips "

DeVore

What Hector said. Even I, who would be more concerned then most with making the money then outright winning would want to take a 58% vs 42% shot to double up. Thats a pretty wide edge!
The only one I might fold would be 3. If I could know these odds and be first to act, my chips would be in faster then rockets going in.

DeV.

DeVore

Actually, heres an interesting point.
Hector might be able to concur with this but something that would be in my mind is:

1. I'm ahead, time to get my chips in.
2. For situation 1 particularly, I'd probably call the reasoning being: if I double up then I'm in a strong strong position in a STT. If I get knocked out then I dont have to spend an hour sitting here folding before possibly going out before the money anyway.

My point is that my time is like a commodity I spend carefully. Generally I wont sit into 10-dollar STT's any more as even if I win them, its not a great return on time-invested. So, the opportunity to flip a coin and know "money finish or out" in the first few hands would come into my mind where as other people might think
"I want to get value for money for this entry price".
The only caveat would be if I felt my edge on the table was SO great that 58% could be turned down in favour of future opportunities.

DeV.

kpnuts

Don't be telling porkies, DeVore! You NEVEr fold!!!

kpnuts

oh, btw, in relation to the thread question, I agree 100% with Dave (DaithiO)

Lplate

1 and 2 I call, largely for the reasons DeVore gave. If it's an expensive STT, then it's reasonable to assume decent players and doubling up gives you a big advantage. If it's a cheap one, then the time element is a major consideration.
3 is determined by whether you want to give yourself a chance to win the tournament or limp into the money and wait for a better opportunity that might not come. I call.

Hectorjelly

Yes I would pretty much agree with that Tom. Situation 3 is the one Id be most likely to fold, the time for calling all in is not on the bubble.

Daithio

Well in each situation you're getting knocked out roughly 50 pc of the time if you call. In the first two I think it's a definite fold, because in neither situation is the improvement that this may make to your stack increasing your chances of cashing in the tournament by enough. So I think it's a fairly simple across the board fold in both of these situations. The tricky one is number three, because you're on the bubble.
The reason I call here is because your chips situation isn't great, the antes are normally very big at this stage of an stt, and if you fold there's still a very large chance you will bubble anyway. Now, if you call and win, more than likely you will go on to take either 1st or 2nd becuase of your favourable chip position. I'm not mad on the term EV but I think this is definitely positive. Lets say the buy in is x, and the usual payout system is in place, 2x, 3x and 5x. You are taking a fifty fifty which if you win will pretty much guarantee you 2x, and put you in a great position to win 3x or 5x. If you fold it's not very likely that you will get more than 2x, and even this is not guaranteed.

ocallagh

I agree with daithio here, why risk it all at the start of an STT?

Dev, you made a good point. In a $10 STT i would probably gamble because I'm only in the game while waiting for an MTT to start, or just messing around. But your logic doesn't translate so easily when you're playing a big game.. If I sat in on a $200 9 seater STT I would fold 1 & 2 every time unless I had AA or KK. If I was worried about m time, I'd multi table rather than gamble.

I would always call on the bubble if I thought I was ahead.. even with a marginal hand. At this stage as Daithio mentioned the blinds are quite big and a 50% shot is not a bad position to be in. What exactly are you waiting for? A 70-30 position? A 60-40 position? With 4 players it is tough to get that lucky..

The ONLY reason you would make the call in either the 1st or 2nd scenario is when you're playing for a lot of money against 9 professional players, all of whom are better than you.

And the ONLY time you fold when youknow you are ahead on the bubble is when one of the remaning players is very low stacked..

Happy Camper

Daithio wrote:

This is because in the first two situtations you are essentially risking your whole tournament on a coinflip, but your chances of going on to cash if you do double up are not doubling.

I'd have to disagree here. I'm pretty sure my tournament equity doubles if my chip stack doubles in a STT (even in MTT). In fact, I would argue that it more than doubles, since I would have "Chip Leader" advantages too.

Happy Camper

ocallagh wrote:

Dev, you made a good point. In a $10 STT i would probably gamble because I'm only in the game while waiting for an MTT to start, or just messing around. But your logic doesn't translate so easily when you're playing a big game.. If I sat in on a $200 9 seater STT I would fold 1 & 2 every time unless I had AA or KK. If I was worried about m time, I'd multi table rather than gamble.

I would always call on the bubble if I thought I was ahead.. even with a marginal hand. At this stage as Daithio mentioned the blinds are quite big and a 50% shot is not a bad position to be in. What exactly are you waiting for? A 70-30 position? A 60-40 position? With 4 players it is tough to get that lucky..

If you're playing in a $200 dollar STT with a sufficient bankroll, then you should be willing to exploit every edge you have.

There are other ways to survive the bubble, while still "waiting" for a 70-30 situation.