Very cold winter ahead?

Trotter

Just spotted this on sky news,
I can't argue, the holly outside has tonnes of berries on it, an ancient indicator of a cold winter ahead because the birds will need more food! (Or so I was told!)

What do the boards.ie experts think of the chances of it being a cold winter in Ireland??


BIG CHILL TO HIT BRITAIN
"Weather experts fear Britain will be gripped by the coldest winter for a decade - and it could endanger energy supplies.

The Met Office has put the energy industry, the NHS and the Government on high alert.

There even are concerns the nation could run out of fuel - gas supplies are much lower than elsewhere in Europe.

The Times says the government will hold an emergency meeting of industry and energy company leaders next month.

Sir Digby Jones, director general of the CBI, said: "If we have a cold winter, we are going to throw the switch: businesses will shut down."

The National Grid has reportedly formulated emergency plans to ensure supply is maintained to homeowners.

Manufacturers and other large gas consumers will be required to shut down factories on particularly cold days."

Dotsie~tmp

the holly outside has tonnes of berries on it, an ancient indicator of a cold winter ahead because the birds will need more food!

Who tells the bush the birds are hungry?

Trotter

Dotsie~tmp wrote:

Who tells the bush the birds are hungry?

lol.. Ive no idea!! It was my old primary teacher that told me that. Maybe its one of those myths.. MAYBE.. its true.

CrowdedHouse

Trotter wrote:

Just spotted this on sky news,
I can't argue, the holly outside has tonnes of berries on it, an ancient indicator of a cold winter ahead because the birds will need more food! (Or so I was told!)

More likely an indication of a good growing season just gone.........

RuggieBear

where's weathercheck? I'd like to hear his [strike]expert[/strike] opinion on this...

mike65

We did this thread already, about 3 weeks ago.

The coldest winter in a decade hardly qualifies as much to write home about!

Mike.

Scubadevils

Where did that last thread go? - was looking for it the other day. Over on netweather we seem to be going the route of a normal mild and cr*p winter again, although there are still some positive posts.

I agree that we need weathercheck to post as to why we will have a severe winter that will takes years to get over and that its not all fun, we need to think about the older folk

ninebeanrows

Im going to post my thoughts for the coming winter in about
2-3 weeks. This part of the year is crucial in determining what we
can expect over the coming winter.

Look for cold moving to the east of Europe/Russian
High Pressure to the north and a flat Atlantic..

The coming few weeks might meet all these criteria..

Im expecting a cold middle to end of October .. (ending up app .8c above average)
And i think a below average November is possible..

We look for trends and at this stage simple ones. Cold air bottling to our
east is always a good sign..

Scubadevils

So you are feeling somewhat positive I take it?! I can't believe I am falling into this rollercoaster in Oct, it was mid Dec last year, so many up and downs already on TWO and netweather. Anyways, look forward to your winter thoughts.

Riamfada

WIth any luck it will be a stormy one. Loving the weather the past few days btw

lucernarian

I laughed when I saw this thread. There will be plenty of posts in the months ahead. Not naming anyone, Weathercheck, but I get that feeling that we will see a lot of ramping soon. It would be even more laughable (and unlikely) should Weathercheck say that we will have a Mediterranean winter... Mind you, Athens got a fair dose of snow not too long ago (2002).....

Danno

Well, I feel that this winter could turn out to be colder on average with quite a few sharp cold snaps - more than last year. I feel that a cold January is definately on unlike the mild Januarys of the last 9-10 years...

Oh and as for the birds/berries link - nature always knows!!!

You know.

I've seen it all before.

Theres plenty of technical reasons for suggesting that theres going to be a late cold winter-but it's only speculation.
The met office gave up long range forecasting moons ago for a reason, it's lack of reliability.

Mother nature will not be told by models what she wants to do.She has a mind of her own and can be petulant about changing it at the last minute.


That said, I expect to have the crunch of snow under my feet this winter*


( the fact that I plan to be in the french alps at some point may have something to do with this-I do not rule out feeling it here in wicklow though,a bad cold snap is long overdue and the simple law of averages means that one will happen sooner or later in the next decade, theres no reason to suggest that this wont be the winter for it-I expect a busy late season in the current indications thread.....)

Franky Boy

I'm looking forward to this cold winter.

CerebralCortex

What about yhe north atlantic oscillation?NAO

A senior meterologist(mCClelland I think was his name) from the UKMO was on the today programme on BBC radio four this morning talking about the NAO.

Basically the reason why they are so confident of a very cold winter is that the Atlantic sea temps are colder than usual which suggests less winter time activity over them.
That should mean more easterlys and less westerlys during the winter and hense the cold air from the continent should visit more often particularally after Xmas.
If you see a predominence of that in mid january with shallow low pressures and wave disturbances coming in from the East-you could see a lot of snow.

We shall wait and see.

Gonzo

they were just talking about this coming winter on Sky News today, they mentioned something along the lines of the possibility of the coldest winter in 65 years with a possible easterly freeze lasting from boxing day till April.

I dont think this will happen, maybe in eastern england but certainly not Ireland we're just too influenced by the winterwarm Atlantic ocean all the time. - perhaps we mite see a bit more snow than usuall which over the past 10 years is a very easy target.

But the point they are making is that the Atlantic wont be active.
Ergo there will be more Easterlys than westerlies.
I can say with absolute certainty that if you get one of those lasting more than 4 or 5 days ie suffecient to drag a continous feed of icy air fro Russia or somewhere then it will be very very cold and precipitation would be wintry/snow.

My late father remember 1947 and that was a constant easterly, it snowed regularally from january to April and there was still snow on the wicklow mountains in mid june-something I've never seen in my life.

The other thing he recalled was that the lane to the farm was blocked by drifts several times and at one stage for the whole of february.

If we had a repeat of whatever caused that winter,I'd suspect that even weathercheck might eventually get fed up with it

That said, there are two things about these predfictions-they are 50:50 at best and as you say they mightnt happen at all.

That said when the UKMO are saying less Atlantic activity-and if they turn out right(they think it has a 50:50 chance) then you can be assured of having more than just a dusting this winter,particularally later on into it.

Jury's out because Mother nature never did anything we told it to-that said the UKMO arent eejits-though they have had some spectacular mistakes like the south of England 1987 "hurricane" I'd still listen to them and if they are saying this,I'd be stocking up on my coal tbh(it can always do for next winter if they are wrong)

Trotter

Earthman wrote:

But the point they are making is that the Atlantic wont be active.
Ergo there will be more Easterlys than westerlies.
I can say with absolute certainty that if you get one of those lasting more than 4 or 5 days ie suffecient to drag a continous feed of icy air fro Russia or somewhere then it will be very very cold and precipitation would be wintry/snow.

My late father remember 1947 and that was a constant easterly, it snowed regularally from january to April and there was still snow on the wicklow mountains in mid june-something I've never seen in my life.

The other thing he recalled was that the lane to the farm was blocked by drifts several times and at one stage for the whole of february.

If we had a repeat of whatever caused that winter,I'd suspect that even weathercheck might eventually get fed up with it

That said, there are two things about these predfictions-they are 50:50 at best and as you say they mightnt happen at all.

That said when the UKMO are saying less Atlantic activity-and if they turn out right(they think it has a 50:50 chance) then you can be assured of having more than just a dusting this winter,particularally later on into it.

Jury's out because Mother nature never did anything we told it to-that said the UKMO arent eejits-though they have had some spectacular mistakes like the south of England 1987 "hurricane" I'd still listen to them and if they are saying this,I'd be stocking up on my coal tbh(it can always do for next winter if they are wrong)

And dont forget the berries on that holly tree! Ive never seen so many on it before. I really believe in that mother nature stuff!! Generations ago, they used all that "if the cows sit down, it'll rain" kinda stuff to predict the weather, and often got it right!

mike65

Just to add to this cold business is the side effect of also being dry (cos of the easterles) so we can look forward to drought conditions next summer/Autumn. Whoopie. May I suggest everyone buying a water butt redirecting a downpipe from the guttering.

Mike.

Mike.
Low pressure systems and fronts can come in from the East and North East too and they often did in the 80's.
If you had a prolonged Easterly, and or a regular one with few breaks then that possibility increases.
I can recall january '87 when a system blew down from scandanavia and brought snow all the way down to Valentia before disappearing off into the Atlantic.
The snow was wellington deep in Dublin and I remember yer man from Met Éireann saying that Dublin was the warmest capital city in Europe despite the snow.It's max that day was minus two.The UCD lake was frozen and you couldnt break the ice with stones(a frequent occurance in the mid to late 80's) in fact you couldnt see the lake at all much as the snow had drifted over it-also a frequent even in the 80's.

The other thing to consider is that very cold air from the East travelling over the Irish sea and St Georges channel does produce showers.
Drop the pressure a bit and it will produce lots.
I've seen it cold enough obviously last winter for it to do this but not cold enough for it to stick as well as it did in the 80's and not prolonged enough to be in any way comparable.


I do believe this might become a ramping thread

mike65

Know all! I recall the spring/summer of 1985 which was wall-to-wall easterlies and cloudy with it for about 90% of the time (or it felt like it) but very little real rain as far as I remember.

Of course the sea can act as a shower generator but you need more than showers to gather together enough rain for the 'high' season surely?

Mike.

ps that flash site looks very cool!

mike65

mike65 wrote:

Know all! I recall the spring/summer of 1985 which was wall-to-wall easterlies and cloudy with it for about 90% of the time (or it felt like it) but very little real rain as far as I remember.

You need the Easterly to be cold to produce lake effect showers.
The cold northerly down the Irish sea produced massive lake effect thunderstorms in the East in October 2003.
It's a mild easterly at that time of the year.

For to maximise the chance of snow you need your easterly ideally in january to mid february.You can have it later than that and indeed be cold enough for snow , but unless theres a big disturbance involved producing a lot of precipitation, you are going to get other environmental factors like longer daytime sunshine etc and slightly higher temps affecting the snows stickability ie you are more likely to be stuck with slushy sleety stuff at sea level.
You'd be ok if you are a snow lover a few miles inland though and with a few hundred feet or more in height.

Scubadevils

With all the hype in relation to the coming winter and how cold/snowy it might be I was just wondering does anyone know what the winter here was like in 62/63. Seeing as there have been some references to that winter in the UK and how bad it was I was just curious really as to what it was like here. Neither of my parents can remember it as such, they just say they remember a lot more bad winters when they were young. I gather though from what I have read that the winter in question was exceptionally bad (good:D ) in the UK.

sunset

And we were told global warming was irreversible, that the Atlantic was warmer. None of this fits. The UK met office must be very serious about this.

ninebeanrows

sunset wrote:

And we were told global warming was irreversible, that the Atlantic was warmer. None of this fits. The UK met office must be very serious about this.

The sad truth is the October release of their long range forecast
is for a milder than average wiinter here and in the UK. They have
stuck somewhat to their forecast of a cold winter in their written
section. But if their not following the model which is why they started
all this hype in first place in September it's very worrying. Expect
a dumb down over the coming month..

Gonzo

yeah were prolly gonna get the usuall generally mild wet rubbish anyway yet again this winter, the predictions on sky news etc over the past few days seemed daft anyway - I seem to remember similar reports last autumn also and looked how mild last winter was, Already the end of this October is so mild, temperatures of up to 21C were forecast for southern England and up to 18C here, we seem to be getting milder and milder each and every winter.

CerebralCortex

Weathercheck wrote:

The sad truth is the October release of their long range forecast
is for a milder than average wiinter here and in the UK. They have
stuck somewhat to their forecast of a cold winter in their written
section. But if their not following the model which is why they started
all this hype in first place in September it's very worrying. Expect
a dumb down over the coming month..

Thanks I knew i'd be right.

flowerpotman

Well, I wasn't around for 1963 (and wouldn't arrive for a few years ;o) ), but apparently it was very bad. It was worse in the East of the country than in the West as far as I know, but still very cold throughout.

(My parents arrived home to their home in the Mid-West after a trip to see family to discover major pipe damage and a flooded house.)

RuggieBear

wasn't there a winter when the powercourt waterfall froze or is that a (peri-)urban myth?

billy the squid

I know the shannon froze in Limerick in 1963.

1947 was supposed to have been colder to the best of my knowledge.

I can remember ice on the beach in arklow in the 80's a few times.It was common enough in Eastern England.
I remember often brining in washing off the line in the afternoon and it was frozen and that was with an East wind.
There hasnt been anything like that here in 20 years.

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote:

The sad truth is the October release of their long range forecast
is for a milder than average wiinter here and in the UK. They have
stuck somewhat to their forecast of a cold winter in their written
section. But if their not following the model which is why they started
all this hype in first place in September it's very worrying. Expect
a dumb down over the coming month..

Yeah I read that-they've kind of like regionalised their alert though -in other words they are trying to be more specefic.
They still say it will be colder than '95-96 which was much colder than last winter and lets face it a 1.5 c drop in temperature at the crucial times when there was sleet and wet snow here last winter would have made all the difference.

That said, and given that we all read the same sources-Norwegian met services expecting there and near Europe to be a degree or two above average this winter doesnt auger well.
They mustnt be expecting prolonged Easterlies- the only decent january/Feb snow givers in Ireland.

Anyway, its pointless talking about january's weather in October other than possible influencing factors as the certainty of it is zero.
There are a lot of unknown knowns about it to borrow yer mans phrase.

On another note New york got a lot of snow this week.

LFCFan

February '91 was extremely cold in Meath. Started snowing around 4pm one day on our way to get the bus from Drogheda after school. Took us and hour and a half to go 9 miles where most kids got lifts. The rest of us ended up having to walk when the bus was unable to get up a hill in Garristown. I remember a burst water pipe in the garden that had been spewing water ended up freezing and the water just froze in the air. Now that was what I would call a cold winter. Nothing has come close since. Not even frozen washing on the line. I'm beginning to doubt we'll ever see it again.

yes thats actually the last serious one a cold one that peeped out from the 80's-we also had a good 6 inches here iirc round then.
There was another one briefly around the foot and mouth time that closed Dublin airport.
I had a pajero jeep and drove up the hills just 4 miles from here and the snow in the road tracks was up to the wheel arches on the jeep.

Mind you last winter,(during our snow watch february on this board) the snow on croghan mt near me and up the wicklow mts drifted several feet deep.
But that was only above 1500 ft.
Twas fine powdery stuff too.

Gonzo

LFCFan wrote:

February '91 was extremely cold in Meath. Started snowing around 4pm one day on our way to get the bus from Drogheda after school. Took us and hour and a half to go 9 miles where most kids got lifts. The rest of us ended up having to walk when the bus was unable to get up a hill in Garristown. I remember a burst water pipe in the garden that had been spewing water ended up freezing and the water just froze in the air. Now that was what I would call a cold winter. Nothing has come close since. Not even frozen washing on the line. I'm beginning to doubt we'll ever see it again.

Thats the last proper winter I remember too, most winters previous to that were similar also, all the way through primary and secondary school I would get at least a week off school because of snow, sometimes it happened twice in the one winter season. Since Winter 1992 I cant really think of any decent winter we've had apart from maybe a few days of light/moderate snow (3 inchs max) and that may have only happend once or twice over past 12 years in my area. My friends young brother is in 1st year now and he can't remember a day that he's gotten off school because of snow since he started school. things have really changed. Im not expecting this winter to be much different but will gladly welcome a major snow event if one comes about:)

lucernarian

I am not an expert in meteorology so all I can rely on is instinct. I think that continuall absences of snow cannot continue indefinetely. Even if there is global warming and/or 40 year cycles in the atlantic ocean, snow will arrive here sooner or later.

If I claim that widespread >150 mm snow at 50 m alt at least 4 miles from the sea occurs 1 in 5 years in Ireland on average in 2000 then that means that there is an evens chance of snow arriving in Ireland in 2005 I think. Of course, this would be only true should there be no significant snowfall in the preceding 4 years.

I feel that optimistic (for a snow-lover) forecasts have a feel of the above idea to them in that "there hasn't been significant snowfall for a decade so it will have to come soon".

The Eurpoean forecasts that Earthman mentioned bodes ill for us. I wonder though how important a freezing continent was for past legendary snowfalls.

My only meterological forecast is that cold air pooling around Scandanavia and beyond will be the most critical factor and a stable Greenland High will be as important. I am leaning on the pessimistic side about those two things as we have a pretty warm continent at the moment and will make it ever harder to cool down later in winter. My money would be on a Northerly delivering the goods this winter, from an LP.

Scubadevils

I would be of the same belief, I know very little about meteorology but gut feeling would be that we are due a good cold winter, or if not a full-on cold winter, at least a few decent cold blasts with some proper snow. Last year was an improvement on previous years in that at least there were a good few attempts. Snow did fall on a few occassions even though it didn't last long so maybe it was a build up to this year where we get something special Although here in Lusk we got little or nothing, it seemed to miss here each time :mad:

Ok if ye need something to grasp.
The guys who are saying near Europe and Scandinavia are going to be a little warmer this winter are only looking as far as mid january at most.
The first UKMO warning referred to mid january and february.

In all my years and all the cold winters I've seen since I was a kid, the really cold stuff started in siberia and Russia.
The RTÉ and BBC forecasters would point to the blue out above moscow on day one eg monday.
It would have reached berlin by day 3 and by day 5 it's with us.
By Day 6 and 7 (and you do need it to still have an uninterupted source) you're in business.
Near Europe can be as warm as it likes but, it wouldn't be long freezing up in mid january if there was a sustained Easterly or Northerly with a source in the very far East of Europe.
For us an easterly is best of course.

Piusno1

Well I can remember 1982 I think when we were told to go home from work (steel factory) as it was to cold to handle,(steel) so I went skating on the local lake, it was Jan. and -13 degrees at around 2 o clock in the day.

full forward

Danno

Brits - nearly as daft as the yanks!

Well.

The windows were open here tonight and the kitchen is full of midges flying about the place.
I've never seen summer flies like that this late.

I'm a believer in nature being a great leveler.
For instance, theres been a lot of rain in the last 6 weeks after a relatively dryish and sunny summer.

We are going to pay for this warm autumn with cold-thats a hunch.

Danno

What I see happening in the last 10 - 12 years is Irish weather becoming more defined.

For example:
Rain is becoming more intensified in to a few weeks of the year. The Irish rainy seasons are:

Mid Jan (2 weeks)
End of March/Begin April (2 weeks)
Mid/Late May (1 week)
Mid July (1 week)
Last week August (1 week)
Second half October/first few days Nov (3 weeks)
Last week Nov and first week Dec (2 weeks)

So 12 weeks outta 52 weeks.

Snow/Cold season seems to be:
Late Dec/Early Jan (2weeks)
End of Jan/Mid March (6 weeks)
8 weeks outta 52.

RuggieBear

Earthman wrote:

We are going to pay for this warm autumn with cold-thats a hunch.

Sarah Connor: What did he just say?
Gas Station Attendant: He said there's a storm coming in.
Sarah Connor: [sighs] I know.

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

Danno

Things sould cool off nicely for mid-month with the first wintery showers expected into Donegal in my opinion.

Gonzo

I was looking at a chart and it looks like we are getting colder weather from around the 5th/6th of November onwards with a brief cold snap around 8th/9th of November. This could give wintry showers on the mountains in Donegal/Northern Ireland? http://www2.wetter3.de/animation.html look at that for around the 8th and a zone of blue is moving into Ireland - tho thats still a week from today so anything can change.

Strasser

Metcheck.com have just issued their winter forecast, quote

2005/6 Forecast
The overall indication for this coming winter is for temperatures to be average to slightly above average for the season (December-February). However, the consistent forecast for Europe to be colder than average indicates that any Easterlies which do occur this year will be markedly colder than seen during recent winters.

Danno

I feel that it is quite an open forecast, nothing too specific in there, kinda - if it happens then it will be cold, if it dosn't then it will be no different,

logical yes - informative no.