poker theory question

Washout

Ive been playing NL heads up quite a bit to try and improve my heads up game. but i guess this applies wheter its heads up or not.

Heres the question. similar situations arise all the time in heads up.

Your BB dealt JsTd. and you flat call a 2x raise
Flop comes down with Ks Qs 8c
so now your sitting on the flush and straight draws.
Im not the greatest at calculating odds and such so i was just wondering what is the correct play based on EV, Pot Odds and implied odds and how you go about calculating them. the one im most interested in is EV as if you make the correct play based on EV all the time then the theory of poker teaches you that you should be in profit over a long period of time, and not look at short term loses/gains. all u should concern yourself is making the correct play.

I usually try and do the quick math by saying the hands im looking for are straight and King high flush which gives me 16 outs.
16*4 with 2 cards to come and 16*2.2 with one card to come.

Im hoping an explaination of the above from you guys would help me better understand, as there are some pretty decent players amongst you guys.

Iago

I'm not one for numbers so I'll leave that to others who are far more qualified. But my own opinion is that you only have 8 outs really. You're looking for a straight draw, not a flush draw.

The straight draw is around about 32% on the turn and 16% on the river, or thereabouts. Before you decide to go for the river you have to consider the likelihood of the turn card improving your opponents hand enough that your straight is no longer a winning hand. If it's a K Q 8, have they hit a full house or trips, what kicker have they got. Say they've hit three Q's on the turn and they have an A or 9 kicker, now hitting your straight gives them a full house on the river and you're in big trouble.


To hit your flush you would have to hit a card on the turn and a card on the river so you're odds are higher you have a 32% chance of catching one of the cards you need on the turn and a 14% chance of catching one of the cards you need on the river. If you're still chasing your straight at the river stage and you've hit a spade on the turn then the odds increase to 26% (7 remaining Spades and the remaining 3 A's and 3 9's)

but again if a spade hits you have to hope that your opponent doesn't have either a full house or the A of spades and has you drawing dead. Generally speaking I would call on this flop if the bet was a small percentage of my stack and I believed that the opponent would keep betting after I hit my straight on the turn, if I haven't hit the turn then I'm folding.

Imposter

As Iago said your straight draws are your only real outs.

Calculate it as follows.
The number of outs * 2 * number of cards to come = percentage of hitting your outs.
So getting all-in after the flop with a open ended straight draw means 8*2*2 = 32% so you'd need better than 2-1 odds to call. (that's if all 8 cards give you the best hand)

That's a rough method for calculating it and is accurate enough. The chance of hitting a runner-runner flush is about 4% too although you only have the J so you could be beaten by somone with the A.

Lafortezza

Edit: oops misread, I thought the flop was all spades. Carry on.

Shortstack

lafortezza wrote:

Why is his 2nd nut flush draw not counted as outs?

Because he does'nt have one, well only a backdoor one. Maybe a typo though

Washout

lafortezza wrote:

Why is his 2nd nut flush draw not counted as outs?

because i needed two of em in two cards.

in that particular hand i did get a low spade on the turn though so it made matters far more interesting.

before i never thought about hitting an out of 2 cards with the turn and river to come. but the particular hand above when the turn hit the spade it raised the question and thats why i asked.

Lafortezza

Damn you mike you were too quick for my ninja edit.

Doesn't he initial question depend on who else is involved in the pot and what action has taken place? If everyone limped and its a multi-way pot between 4+ players then betting would be good.
If it's headsup against a preflop raiser then you'd have to play it differently.

lol Waylander

Hectorjelly

Im a bit confused as to the specifics of the hand, so in general these are the things I contemplate when considering a draw

Am i drawing to the nuts. If the pot is heads up or three way Ill draw to medium/low flushs but thats about it. If the board is paired/three cards to a flush or whatever then drawing to a hand that might be already beaten is beyond awfull.

Am I getting the right odds to call and make my draw on the next card, or next two if its all in. It doesnt have to be exact, a quick aproximation is ok. If I am then I will nearly always call. Remember to count outs that arent obvious (ie ace outs etc). Some of these outs might have reverse implied odds though, (ie they arent really outs).

If not am i likely to get paid off if i hit. This means I want the player im against to have a strong hand, or it to be multiway pot, or for the player in question to be a moron. Straight draws are much better than flush draws in this regards because they arent so obvious. Being in position is much better than being out of position, which is why JTs utg is a loser, but JTs on the button is a winner .

Is it possible Ill win this hand without a showdown? If so then Ill be much more likely to call

Quick example, you have JQ and limp in mp. No one raised and its three to a flop of TK2 with 2 spades. The bb bets out whatever the pot is. Its folded to you. This is a clear fold, there is no indication he has a strong hand and you are not getting the odds to call and see the next card. The flush draw complicates things. If you regularly call here it is a leak and you will lose money because of it. If he is a terrible player then calling is ok because you figure to get paid off. Also calling to raise the turn can be good as well.

Sorry about that, I felt like writing an essay.

Washout

Hectorjelly wrote:

Im a bit confused as to the specifics of the hand, so in general these are the things I contemplate when considering a draw

Sorry about the confusion. I was trying to get info on calculating pot odds the EV of the hand and so forth...ie the maths behind making the decision.

Hectorjelly

Ok sorry I kind of skipped the maths. First of all just learn the odds of draws, here are the common ones

Flush draw Around 37%
Straight Draw Around 35%
Overcard Draw Around 25%
Gutshot Around Around 20%


So first of all work out if you are getting odds to call. If the pot is $100 and someone bets $100 then you will have to win the hand 33% of the time to make that call break even. Thats because 1/3 of the time you get 300 back (200 profit), and 2/3 of the time you lose 100 (which is 200 loss). However that is only if the bet is all in, most of the time you only get to see on card. So its not exact but if you halve the % and work it out that way.

If your not getting the immediate odds then you have to figure are you getting the implied odds. This means that should you make your draw will your opponent pay you off. To do this properly you need to know your opponent, and also realise how obvious your drawis. In general the worse your opponent the better your implied odds are.

This is only touching the surface!