laying bets

allin-king

I'm thinking of getting more into laying bets on betfair with a bank roll of a few grand,

Anyone ever try this? Things i need help on are knowing how to lay a proper book with a good spread, so that i should make a tidy profit (most of the time)

Any tips lads?

Healio

Dont lay (big) on horse racing.

ziggy

This post has been deleted.

Healio

Well then all i'll say is lay to the market/form, and not on an opinion. I know it sounds contradictory, but i should be able to explain it (better) when im sober.

masterK

In order to lay a horse it is not good enough to simply not think it will win. You need to quantify its chances of winning in your opinion and then convert the chance into a price you would be willing to lay at. For example lets say you give Horse A a 10% chance of winning the race. Then in your eyes horse A should be 9/1, if it is currently trading at 3/1 then according to your opinion on the horse it is seriously underpriced and is a worthwhile lay. However if this horse was 20/1 it would not be a worthwhile lay since it is overpriced compared to your opinion.

Since exchanges operate close to a 100% book it is almost impossible to lay a full book on a race. I would advise that you firstly decide which horses you feel cannot win in a race and then arrive at price you would be willing to lay each one at, then check the market and see which ones are currently laying at less than your price and go for these.

The biggest piece of advise I can give is to keep stakes to a minimum at first, you'd be surprised how quick you can lost that few grand you talk about when laying.

jobless

ive been laying horses now for a year.....some advice i can give is not to try and do every race.....be very selective and stop when you hit your target each day......the amount of times i've hit my target and then tried to lay one more horse and it wins losing all my profit is unbelievable.....you get greedy when your on a run!
also listen to william hill radio if your laying before a race, the lads on the show go through their fancies for the race and sometimes will say if a horse is a bad price for what he's done etc.....

keep your stakes small at the start until your comfortable....i dived straight in and got burnt......ive made it back though thank god!

Morgans

my piece of advise is not to rely on william hill radio. Only get involved if you know what you are doing, and if you can afford to lose the money.

jobless

Morgans wrote:

my piece of advise is not to rely on william hill radio. Only get involved if you know what you are doing, and if you can afford to lose the money.

i only mentioned the radio station because often times they will put me off laying a horse by their analysis (has saved me a few quid on occasions). These lads are experts and know more than i or you know. Its just an extra source of information for me to decide on what races/horses to do. its not the only source.....and its been going well for me.

Morgans

Best of luck using them. If you find them helpful and make you money, keep it up. I find them a good deal better than sportliferadio - ones on paddypower and many other bookmakers services. But in general on these bookies radio programs - 90% of what they come out with comes from the racing post and rest is cliches. Very little insight. My personal opinion is that there is at least a handful of posters on here who could do at least the job that they do. I find that the radio services are only useful for the commentaries. Seriously, if they are making you money, use them. I personally wouldnt rely on their opinion.

masterK

The very fact that they are on a broadcast paid for by a bookmakers would make me suspicous. I've listened to all the web based broadcasts and have never really come across anyone half decent. Most of the time they just go with the market or the favourite.

If you are looking for tipsters to follows, the only ones I have found half decent are Matt Boyle on the ATR website, Pricewise and Trading Post in the RP, Trading post is one of interest for the layers.

Morgans

well said master K. You have identified the same press people that I would take note of. Pricewise's record is phenomenal. He goes through the odd sticky patch but it is always reassuring when he selects one of your fancies - especially if you have got an ante post price. It is remarkable how often he gets the toughest handicaps read correctly. Tom Segal, like the previous Pricewise's in the RP (Henry Rix and Mervyn Collier) benefitted from having the best databases and systems at their disposal, and both Rix and COllier havent been as successful since they went independent telephone tipsters. It is noteable how many of teh big gambles that are highlighted as telephone tipster punts fail to come off. Still for Pricewise to be as successful as he is, it takes some doing.

Matt Boyle is a good example of someone who had no connections to the racing industry before he started out as a journalist and has proven himself a clever correspondent and a good tipster. David Duggan can overdo the schmoltz on ATR but he is worth listening to. Has banged in a couple of big priced winners lately.

There are plenty broadcasting on the sport who some watching would consider experts. Derek Thompson has his own tipping line, and was exposed as useless by a guardian study. Selecting favourite after favourite, with many odds on losers. Nothing more than a chancer. They might spent their working day watching races but it doesnt mean that they can raceread. McGrath and Francome are the only two worth listening to on C4. Luck, Hoiles, and Holt do sometimes come out with interesting comments but not as good as the other two.