Influenza Pandemic?

mike65

Forget random acts of terrorism or hurricains is a mutated strain of bird flu the big threat?

Q&A

Nature Journal

Time is running out to prepare for the next pandemic. There is a critical need for comprehensive medical and non-medical pandemic planning at the ground level (involving many in the private sector), that goes beyond what has been considered so far. National, regional or local plans based on general statements of intent or action will be meaningless in the face of a pandemic. Specific operating blueprints to get through 12 to 36 months of a pandemic are essential. For example, determining how food might be supplied to local populations when transportation and food-processing plants shut down will require a level of planning not yet included in any national or regional plans.

At the international level, world leaders need urgently to consider what they can do now. When the pandemic hits close to home, leaders will do their best to react and cope. But real leadership, particularly by the G8, means making tough decisions now. We must act with decisiveness and purpose if we are to create a pandemic vaccine that has a chance of making a real difference.

from examiner

Avian flu jab not expected until 2006
By Jim Morahan
VACCINES to protect against the killer avian flu will not be available in Ireland until early 2006, a senior Department of Health (DoH) official confirmed yesterday.

“We hope to have them as soon as possible,” said DoH principal officer Brian Mullins. “At this stage we would hope to get them possibly early next year. That would be the earliest we would secure them.”

Health experts warn an epidemic of the viral disease - which has travelled from south-east Asia to Siberia - could kill more than 25,000 people in Ireland.

A suspected case of bird flu H5N1 - which is carried by migrating birds - is being investigated in Finland. Final tests will not be known for some weeks.

There is concern wild birds such as geese, ducks and swans that spend the winter in Ireland may bring the virus here within weeks - well ahead of any vaccine becoming available.




Since 2003, the flu has killed 63 people in south-east Asia. In recent weeks, the strain has been discovered in Kazakhstan, Siberia and European Russia.

Mr Mullins, a member of the Influenza Pandemic Expert Group (IPEG), admitted his group had not met for nearly two years due to an industrial dispute.

This dispute related to the long-running refusal of hospital consultants to take part in department committees.

“It (group) didn’t meet due to an industrial dispute, but it probably would not have been meeting anyway because it would have awaited publication of the WHO (World Health Organisation) revised plan which details what national governments should be doing in terms of alleviating the worst effects of the flu,” said Mr Mullins.

He said the Irish plan to combat a pandemic flu outbreak was being revised and “should be completed in a month or two”. “We also have a generic public health emergency plan which details what is required to be done,” Mr Mullins told RTÉ Radio 1. The as yet unlicensed vaccine is almost straight from the laboratory.

Mike.

the_syco

[font=Verdana,Helvetica,sans-serif]http://home.eircom.net/content/irelandcom/topstories/6455996?view=Eircomnet[/font]

[font=Verdana,Helvetica,sans-serif]Scientists in the US have rebuilt the deadly Spanish flu virus that swept the world in 1918, killing up to 50 million people, writes Dick Ahlstrom, Science Editor.

Seemingly they think that the Bird Flu virus mutated from this, so by figuring out the original virus, they may find out a cure for the bird flu.
[/font]

geraghd

Hmm no I dont think they are looking for a cure (I think this would be highly implausible) but that seeing as they are similar they might be able to predict when and how the next pandemic occurs if indeed if occurs from this current avian strain and thus better prevent deaths...

geraghd

No considering the likelyhood of me or you dieing from it would be quite small. Unless you happen to be quite old, very young, or unhealthy you should be absolutely fine! I wouldnt worry bout it too much.

DrIndy

There are cures for bird flu, simply to let the body deal with it (which unfortunately means some people to succumb) or to vaccinate - if that can be developed and distributed fast enough.

The thing about bird flu is yes, it is deadly and yes it is spreading, but it is not a human flu strain - this is important. As it is not infectious and spreadable from human to human.

There are two key components which make an influenza virus infectious (and thus deadly) - the H and N antigens. These mutate naturally and what normally occurs is that one of those antigens changes in the next years wave of influenza. since people have partial immunity, then they only are sick for a few weeks, however if BOTH mutate then you have one nasty bugger of a virus which spreads really quick and infects really quick. This happened during the Spanish Flu and killed more people than world war 1 did.

The issue of Bird flu is that it has two novel antigens BUT it is BIRD flu, not human flu and thus replicates poorly in the human lungs. However, if someone were to have human flu and then simultaneously be infected with bird flu then the antigens could cross species and you would have a human flu with bird flu antigens and be one very nasty piece of work.

This is the fear.

I got my vaccine due to my job and so am not concerned.......