Call or fold?

Daithio

About an hour into the Merrion €500 FO. I have 10k in chips, we started with 7500. Antes are 75 -150. The player I'm in the pot against doesn't seem to be very good and he has the same amount of chips as me. I've seen him play two hands, one he limped with QQ, and another he called my re re raise all in for 5.5k when it was another 4.7k to him with 1010, I had KK. So that's the info I have.

He limps from early position and I limp on button with K5d in a five way pot, flop comes K54 with two clubs. Checked around to me, I bet 800, he calls, everyone else folds. Turn 6, not a club. He checks, I bet 2500, he goes all in. What do you do?

Lafortezza

Call unless you think it's possible he has a set and might trap by flat calling the flop.
If he's a bad player he might have KT or KJ or even AA. Is he bad enough to be playing 32 or drawing to a gutshot with 78?

NickyOD

Daithio wrote:

About an hour into the Merrion €500 FO. I have 10k in chips, we started with 7500. Antes are 75 -150. The player I'm in the pot against doesn't seem to be very good and he has the same amount of chips as me. I've seen him play two hands, one he limped with QQ, and another he called my re re raise all in for 5.5k when it was another 4.7k to him with 1010, I had KK. So that's the info I have.

He limps from early position and I limp on button with K5d in a five way pot, flop comes K54 with two clubs. Checked around to me, I bet 800, he calls, everyone else folds. Turn 6, not a club. He checks, I bet 2500, he goes all in. What do you do?

If I'm adding it up right, did you bet 2500 into a 2350 pot on the turn?

I can't fold this. I think more often than not you'll be up against AK or Kx. If I knew more about his EP limping standards it would be an easier decision.

Hectorjelly

How many chips do you have left? I think you need to seriously consider folding. Whilst you have a strong hand, unless he is being a donk with AK or is bluffing you are behind all of his legitamate hands. There are four alternatives to his hand:

A) A set. The way the hand played out is how most people play sets, 444 and 555 are very likely here. Small chance he limped with KK
A straight. He could have 78 of clubs
C) Ak or KQ. I think think this is very unlikey. Who slowplays top pair! Especially with 2 clubs on the board. Same with AA
D) Semi Bluff. He could have flopped a flush and open ended straight draw, and the turn gave him a pair as well. This again is unlikely but possible.

His play just seems too consistant with a very strong holding - I think I would fold (assuming I hadnt just pot committed myself on the turn) unless I had a strong feeling that he wanted me out of the pot. There is always the chance that you are laying down the best hand, but such is poker.

Lafortezza

The fact that Daithio says that villain is a bad player who can limp with big pairs and is happy to call all-ins with TT makes me think that such strong holdings as HJ mentioned are unlikely.
Some players just hit a hand and stick their money in, doesn't have to be a big hand.

I predict villain had A6o!

Marq

I can't think of a hand you can beat here. I'd fold. His play is consistent with someone who has flopped a set and it's quite possible he could have limped with kings in EP hoping to backraise. With the blinds only costing you 225 a round a stack of 6.5k is still very playable.

Daithio

I did exactly all the same reasoning as you HJ, and decided that I was almost certainly beaten. I still had 7000 chips left with antes at 75-150 and average was only about 8k. I did all this reasoning, decided I was almost certainly behind, and still called! I've never been so sick leaving a tournament, because I was almost completely certain I was beaten. It turns out he'd called my bet on the flop and turned a set of sixes. I didn't think he'd looked that strong or comfortable with his hand on the flop, so that's maybe why there was a tiny little voice in the back of my head which convinced me against all of my reasoning to call. I remember thinking that possibly, now this is only possibly, he called me on the flop with 56 (he was capable of this) and this is why he hadn't looked so comfortable then but now seemed to really like his hand. A7 clubs was another hand I was hoping for.
Still an absolutely terrible call though, and its made me a bit concerned about my play. I called out of hope, I had absolutely no certainty I was ahead, in fact if I'd stopped and put it into percentages I would have said about 70 -30 in favour of his hand. It's something I never would have done a few months ago and I think it's from playing cash games a little too much. So I'm going to give them up all together and stick to the tournaments from now on.

Marq

daithio wrote:

So I'm going to give them up all together and stick to the tournaments from now on.

Would you ever make up your mind?