Thoughts on this STT hand please

Iago

5 handed in a STT and you're in the SB with JJ blinds are 100/200, small stack has 1200 left and the rest of the stacks are fairly even around the 4.2K mark.

Small stack is button-1 and goes all-in, button then reraises all-in for 200 less than you have. Call or fold?

My contention is this, if you want to win the STT and you think you have a good read on what hands they have you should call here. If you want to finish in the money then you should fold.

I put the short stack on a huge range of hands, anything from QJs to QQ with any two broadway cards or any pair up to QQ. I felt if he had KK or AA he would have flat called or min raised hoping to intice an over the top bet.

The move from the button screamed isolation bet. I felt he had either a medium PP (TT, 99 or 88) and was hoping he was up against two overcards or a lower pair. Or even Ax. Or he was holding AK or AQ and was pushing to get heads up and have a race.

So having thought it through and deciding I wanted to win rather than finish in the money I called...what do you think?

Ste05

I'm sure you'll get lots of people saying to wait for a better spot. But as I read the post, I had the exact same thought process as yourself. I'd put the small stack on any A, or a pocket pair, if above JJ the good luck to him. The button I would have thought had AK or some such, alternatively a smaller pair. But it did scream of an isolation bet.

There's a chance one of the opponents has QQ and above, and if they do, good luck to them, but this hand could effectively win you the tournament and for that I don't mind this call at all. At some stage you need to take risks and I like this one. Just my 2c.

Ollieboy

With 5 players left and this been a 9 seat, with 3 getting paid, I would fold. The player on the button, seems to be sure he as has the strongest hand, I would guess the bullets or KK, or Ace King, hence the over the top bet to make sure the SB and BB dont call. So this shows that he as a high pair, as he doesn't want anymore action on the flop. If he had fold, it would have been a easy call. The other player, could have a pair of 9's or some other mid pair. Even a Ace 9 would be common here, if he's trying to steal the blinds. This is a bet of intention and a signal to stay away in my eyes. I would only call this bet with AA or KK, or maybe AK, but otherwise fold. Your now only one player away from the money and thats what matters, not how you won it. If you called, they both could have overcards and I would give good odds in one of them hitting if not both.

Its a pity, because you have a nice starting hand and it would have been great to see a cheap fold and than take it down with no overcards hitting.

So what did you do? Fold

ionapaul

Did have any read on the button? I think my decision if in your situation would depend to some extent on any read I had of this player. Both players could have any two cards from a fairly wide range, and it is very possible both have Ax and as such might be blocking one another to some extent.

If they both have Ax where x is a 10 or lower, your JJ are a massive favourite to win. If the short stack has Ax (10 or lower again) and the button has AK, you are still big favourite to win. I think there are far more circumstances in the situation you outlined where the JJ are big favourites, than otherwise. I would definitely call, unless my read on the button had him as an ultra-tight player pushing to isolate with AA-QQ.

careca

I would probably call based on the same assumption, that the second player has AK and is trying to isolate. Even if the small stack has you beaten you will still get a profit from the hand it you beat the larger stack.

I don't agree with you Ollie that the larger stack would reraise with KK, AA. I think he would try to intice others into the pot, certainly with AA. I also can't see how you might call with AK but would fold JJ.

As Ionapaul said they could also be holding the same cards, meaning you are a big fav to win it.

Culchie

I would have folded, with a raise all-in and a caller you got to think by the time the 5 cards are dealt that JJ is going to be behind, there is going to be no post flop play, so unless you hit one of the two remaining Jacks, it's hard to see that overcards won't come and beat you up.

Only 100 invested in pot so far, I would have folded.

mewso

It's an interesting question. I hear people saying this all the time- "You want to be a winner you gotta call in these situations". To be winner it's got to be a profitable move. If we make some assumptions. For example before this hand the 4 similar stacks have an equal chance of winning it at say 23% whereas the small stack has a 7% chance, assuming we put them all at the same skill level. Now lets assume if you call and lose you are out. You virtually are anway. So the possibilities are:-

You fold and the low stack wins:
You - 23%, Player 1 - 23%, Player 2 - 23%, Button - 16%, Button-1 - 14%

You fold and the Big Stack wins:
You - 23%, Player 1 - 23%, Player 2 - 23%, Button - 30%

You call and knock out 2 players:
You - 53%, Player 1 - 23%, Player 2 - 23%

You call and only beat the large stack:-
You - 39%, Player 1 - 23%, Player 2 - 23%, Button-1 - 14%

You call and lose to both:- You - 0%

It's gets messy from here working out likely hands, EV etc. but I think the call is only worth it if you expect to beat both hands most of the time. Now I don't know what level this is but if 2 players are all-in I suspect your JJ is behind or will be to at least one of the hands by the river. If you have the best hand and it holds up great but I'm not certain it's a profitable play. Hector get in here.

Ste05

musician wrote:

So the possibilities are:-

You call and only beat the large stack:-
You - 39%, Player 1 - 23%, Player 2 - 23%, Button-1 - 14%

but I think the call is only worth it if you expect to beat both hands most of the time.

I disagree with your post, and based on your own reasoning, I don't think you're folding for the right reason. Based on your analysis all you need to do is beat the button player for this move to be profitable. With this over-bet he quite obviously has only one of two possible holdings, a pair under j's or AK - AJ. His bet is obviously a protection bet, not disguised at all, plainly obvious, he wants to get be heads up with the original raiser on a coin-flip or hopefully better!!! In such a case it's either a 50:50 or you're a big favourite,
The original all-in is more than likely in desperation mode and would have pretty much similar holdings and perhaps a rag A thrown in as well.

padraig_f

What the short-stack has isn't that important since his chip-stack is relatively small and it's a 3-way pot for that one (on average you probably profit 100 chips from that pot). You should really be concerned about what the reraiser has and where your hand stands in relation to his.

Coin-flips for all your chips close to the bubble in a SnG are significantly -EV. Even situations where you're slight favourite are -EV. This is because the chips you gain have less value than the chips you lose. To stick in all your chips near the bubble with no fold equity, you need to figure to be a significant favourite over his range of hands. Probably greater than 60%.

Whether you have this kind of edge is a judgment call. Although he's up against a short-stack, he's still reraising. He has a far better range than someone just opening the pot. Me I'd typically put him on something like 88-AA,AK,AQ,AJs. You're a little over 50% against this range, I don't think this is enough to make the call.

ionapaul

edited to say: this post is in response to Ste05

Well, that's back to our read on the button, isn't it? Which would then factor into muso's calculation. The button's raise might *seem* a protection / isolation bet, but alternatively it could be a player with AA who belives that 'winning a small(er) pot is better than losing a big(ger) pot'! Or any number of possibilities.

However, on any given day, without a read on either player and playing an online STT at the €50 level or below, I think my JJ will be big favourites much more often than not, and I'm calling here.

Culchie

Ste05 wrote:

I disagree with your post, and based on your own reasoning, I don't think you're folding for the right reason. Based on your analysis all you need to do is beat the button player for this move to be profitable. With this over-bet he quite obviously has only one of two possible holdings, a pair under j's or AK - AJ. His bet is obviously a protection bet, not disguised at all, plainly obvious, he wants to get be heads up with the original raiser on a coin-flip or hopefully better!!! In such a case it's either a 50:50 or you're a big favourite,
The original all-in is more than likely in desperation mode and would have pretty much similar holdings and perhaps a rag A thrown in as well.

With 3 players seeing all 5 cards, an all-in and a re-raiser entered the pot, I can't see how JJ will stand up without hitting a third Jack.

I also think that it's impossible to make absloute categoric statements such as " his bet is obviously a protection bet ", because I don't think it is an obvious holding myself. With only my SB of 100 invested, I would fold this hand under these circumstances.

Can we hear how the hand worked out, and who was holding what?

Ste05

I see your point that he might have a very strong hand and so would prefer to win a small pot, but I just don't see it being played like this. I'm sure the end results will show that I'm wrong, but I think this play does have +EV.

I might have over-stated slightly when I said it's obviously a protection bet, but it is the most likely reason for this overbet IMHO, I would not be suprised to find out either he was up against one under-pair and two over cards, alternatively, two to three over cards with each sharing the A. The worst case scenario is that you're up against AK and AQ, giving three over cards,

But if as I suspect you're up against two over cards and an underpair, I like this spot to put you into a situation where your chances of winning the whole tournament are significantly increased.
I'm not sure if this all made sense, typing quickly in work, but without a read on the button telling me he would play AA or KK like this, I'd call each time.

Iago

ok, so some interesting points, all of which have merit.

Firstly this was a $25 STT on PPP

From my point of view as I mentioned originally I felt that if I called and beat the button I had a great chance of going on to win the tournament. If I called and beat both players then I would have to try very hard not to win the tournament. Normally I play to finish in the money first and win the tourney second, but I decided that this was a good chance to do both in one go.

After that it became hand prediction. I felt the original raiser had a wide enough range to make a call against him profitable. I genuinely felt that the Button was weaker than me, I discounted KK and AA immediately and that only left QQ ahead. They could have been blocking each other with Ax or better again lower pocket pairs. In the circumstances I felt good about calling here so I did...

Button -1 AQo
Button 88
Me JJ

Flop K 7 2 rainbow
Turn 8
River 5

Button wins both pots and 9,600, knocking out the shortstack and leaving me with 200 chips and going out in a hand or two.

preflop I was 45.9% to win button-1 was 36.1% and button was 18%



In retrospect, I'm still happy with my call because I made it for the right reason, if I was going to concentrate on a money finish then I would have folded the hand in this position, but I think the call was the right move for the goal in mind.

Ste05

Worked out badly, and you were unlucky he hit his 8, but hey that's Poker, I'm sure we can all take comfort from that one. I feel I read it right, and others will say they would have been right to fold, so everyone wins - except for poor old Iago.

Ollieboy

Very unlucky, but a good call.

I can see what everyone means by him overbetting. He must have hated to see you also go all-in. In hindsight, you could say he played it wrong and overbet the preflop. But if you had fold, is bet would have been correct. Tough call.

Ste05

I think his bet was fine too, he wanted to go heads up against the all-in, he was just unlucky (or as it turned out - lucky) he ran into JJ. He wanted to scare off any other drawing hands, that could beat him, or to prevent anyone else coming back over the top of him, as I would have done with the JJ in this situation had he smooth called.

Culchie

Well, I guess this is the beauty of Poker, more than one way to skin a cat. If I was Button and had AA, had an all in before me, I would still be re-raising.

I want one opponent not two.

Looks like it's an 'agree to disagree' situation.

mewso

Well my point was that only one of the winning possibilities seemed worth the risk. Ste you think all you have to do is to beat the big stack for it to be profitable but I'm talking relatives here and if you only beat him the gain and added likelihood of winning outright is not enough. Beating both provides the only improvement in chances of winning I am interested in as Iago has stated that as his aim. What I wanted to show was that calling here is not necessarily the move to make to win the STT as Iago seems to think but it's a tough call anyway. I could well have called here too but even at the $25 STT level the play can be so bad that it could be well worth folding. With bad players I want 1 on 1. On a final note in recent times the $25 level has players that wouldn't know what an isolation bet was never mind make one. The bad players get over excited with strong hands and push very often. The idea of calling to enlarge your stack considerably is a valid aim but doubling it is enough. I'm not looking for opportunites to triple through.

Ste05

Culchie wrote:

Well, I guess this is the beauty of Poker, more than one way to skin a cat. If I was Button and had AA, had an all in before me, I would still be re-raising.

I want one opponent not two.

Looks like it's an 'agree to disagree' situation.

I never disagreed with this point, I would do the exact same thing if I had AA or KK on the button.

My feeling however in this situation was that if he has AA or KK good luck to him I'd just pay him off. If you're afraid that the button will only re-raise all-in here with AA or KK then that is just way too tight IMHO, obviously it's just different styles.

Ste05

musician wrote:

Well my point was that only one of the winning possibilities seemed worth the risk. Ste you think all you have to do is to beat the big stack for it to be profitable but I'm talking relatives here and if you only beat him the gain and added likelihood of winning outright is not enough.

I agree that this would have been a hard call to make, and my opinion was that in a situation like this where I felt that I was about a 40 - 50% favourite to win this hand had my read been correct, with the potential pay-off at the end this would have been a call. In this situation Iago's read was right and I think a good call, one that I would also make. Either way at some stage of this tournament you're more than likely going to have to flip a coin to win it so why not now when you're getting about 2.5:1 on your money for an roughly an even money shot. (Obviously all assuming your read is right).

I can see many good and logical arguments for folding here, as JJ is only a medium pair and not as pretty as it looks, but in the exact situation Iago described I think either a fold to try sneak into the money and wait for a better spot to double-up would have been fine, but equally taking a shot at this, although the riskier play is what I would have done, but one that will increase your chances of winning the tournament outright if it works out.

I'd be interested to see what NickyOD thinks about this situation??

mewso

Heres a 2 dimes analysis for your delectation (suits assumed):-

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1202685
pokenum -h as qd - 8h 8d - jh jc
Holdem Hi: 1370754 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Qd 493729 36.02 873681 63.74 3344 0.24 0.361
8d 8h 245337 17.90 1122073 81.86 3344 0.24 0.180
Jc Jh 628344 45.84 739066 53.92 3344 0.24 0.459

ionapaul

The above relates to the main pot I think - Iago was a big (80%-20% I think?) favourite to take the sizable side pot.

Interesting discussion, thanks for posting the hand Iago

Hectorjelly

Id usually fold this unless the big stack was playing quite loose, or I was getting to desperation stage. If I knew for a fact that that the big stack didnt have QQ - AA (because he might play them differently) then I might be inclined to call, but if not Id fold. 4k chips is enough to sustain enough pressure to pick up chips without having to call all in.

Iago

musician wrote:

Beating both provides the only improvement in chances of winning I am interested in as Iago has stated that as his aim. What I wanted to show was that calling here is not necessarily the move to make to win the STT as Iago seems to think but it's a tough call anyway. I could well have called here too but even at the $25 STT level the play can be so bad that it could be well worth folding.

A valid point muso, and one that I have thought on quite a lot over the last couple of days. Normally in this position I would fold, and while I don't think that this was the hand that would have guaranteed an outright win on the table, it would certainly have greatly multliplied my chances had it worked out.

I think in part my decision was made based on hands I had seen played out on the table leading up to that one. At one point there was a raise, re-raise and re-raise all-in before me and I was holding AJs. Figuring that at least one and possibly two of the players had to be miles ahead of me (read QQ-AA or AK/AQ) and so folded without hesitation.

All 3 ended up all-in and turned over 22, JTs and A7s respectively!!! An A landed on the flop and won the hand. I think as you mentioned there is more and more loose and just downright poor play at this level, and you have to try not to be influenced by it.

My biggest money drain at the moment is calling in bad spots purely because of previous plays on the table and running into guys who either genuinely have a hand or outdraw me. All the while I know I shouldn't have been involved in the first place.

Great to see different points of view on this hand though, it'll certainly make you think in similar circumstances

Lafortezza

Late to the thread but anyway, the person you have to worry about is the Button, if you are pretty sure to be ahead of his possible hand range then it's an auto-call.
I'd normally re-raise to isolate a shortstacks all-in with AA-QQ, AK, and I'd tend to flat call and see what the flop brings it JJ or worse. But that's just me.