Group 4 Permutations

tetsujin1979 · 05-09-2005 12:07am #1

I've updated the permutations table, taking into account the weekend's results. You can see the updated table here - http://members.boards.ie/tetsujin1979/Group4Permutations.html - It's looking really good to be honest, although that one bright red square remaining is troubling.
A draw and win from wednesday's game and the Swiss match in October and we're good to go!

I've also updated the Group 4 spreadsheet, you can get that here - http://members.boards.ie/tetsujin1979/Group4.zip

[Jackass] · 05-09-2005 1:51am

tetsujin1979 wrote:

I've updated the permutations table, taking into account the weekend's results. You can see the updated table here - http://members.boards.ie/tetsujin1979/Group4Permutations.html - It's looking really good to be honest, although that one bright red square remaining is troubling.
A draw and win from wednesday's game and the Swiss match in October and we're good to go!

I've also updated the Group 4 spreadsheet, you can get that here - http://members.boards.ie/tetsujin1979/Group4.zip

Fair play tetsujin1979, i spent a fair bit of time studing your last table, i was also trying to eliminate all the redundant possibilitys following this weeks results.

I have to agree we're looking good to get at least play off. Im confident that we'll beat cyprus and switzerland. I would love if switzerland could nick a point off the French, as it's in Basel, but i dont think they will (especially not after seeing them Vs israel), so, for me, wedneday is the group decider.

I can't wait, it'll be a cracker...it's going to be a classic...biggest game since holland.

Chardee MacDennis · 05-09-2005 7:12am

it depends if we beat the french(big if imho) they might give it up and not really go at the swiss?

StickyMcGinty · 05-09-2005 8:31am

yea nice job on the table tet, but you its simple, we gotta beat either the swiss of french, draw against one of them and beat cyprus, and then we'll go through!

it would be so much easier if we'd beaten israel...

KdjaCL · 05-09-2005 8:38am

VinnyL wrote:

it would be so much easier if we'd beaten israel...

3 teams have said that 3 teams have yet to beat them.

kdjac

StickyMcGinty · 05-09-2005 8:54am

KdjaC wrote:

3 teams have said that 3 teams have yet to beat them.

kdjac

but we were 2 nil up....

tetsujin1979 · 05-09-2005 8:58am

VinnyL wrote:

but we were 2 nil up....

Cyprus were 1 up - lost 2-1
Swiss were 2-1 up and drew 2-2 away
1 up and drew 1-1 at home
France were 1 up - drew 1-1 away from home and didn't score against them at home.
Israel are a tough team to beat, I've no doubt some teams thought the same about us in the late 80's and early 90's

StickyMcGinty · 05-09-2005 9:06am

true true, but they we're brutal at landsdown, i'm still in sohck after that game. they were rolling about the place, leaving the boot in etc. i'd say kerr had more to do with them coming back in to the game than their tactics to be honest.

anyway, i dont expect us to beat france, but i'd be expecting at least a draw. we should beat the swiss at home, and easily beat cyprus. and i would have said we'd have definately done the above before i saw us play italy last month. all over the place we were.

LFCFan · 05-09-2005 9:40am

I've lost all faith in Kerr. Only a terrifc performance and result against France will put some of that faith back. The straw that broke the camels back was the Israel game. 2-0 up and cruising and he changes the game with his rediculous substitutions and tactics. If we don't qualify for the WC he has to go. He seems out of his depth at international level.

The Insider · 05-09-2005 9:46am

Have to say think that is a bit harsh, his hand was forced in the Israel game with Robbies injury its not like he just tinkered with the formation for the sake of it. In hindsight it was the wrong decsion but hindsight is a wonderfull thing who says Israel would not have scored 2 if Kerr had put elliot on for Keane?? Then people would have been saying he should have put on the extra midfielder. For me Kerr has done well so far, Mick got a lot more time to re-build after Jack's era I think Kerr deserves the same.

redspider · 05-09-2005 9:47am

Looking at it from a FR perspective, they would obviously like a win against IE, but a win against CH is probably easier. A draw against IE and two wins would leave them on 20 pts. For us, the CH game is also easier, so a draw against FR and two wins would also leave us on 20 pts. If CH lose both those matches and beat CY they will be on 16 pts.

Anything can happen, but for FR and IE, a draw would suit both teams in a way, it would mean everything would depend on the CH games for both countries. IE would have an advantage as we are playing CH here in Dublin and FR have to play CH away.

So, the difference between IE and FR if both end up on 20 pts will be goal difference, presuming the head-to heads are the same (ie: two draws). That will likely mean that FR will end up top on goal difference and us second, depending on how many goals are scored against CY ..... so the games against CY will have significance.

Overall, we are in an ok position. No need to panic. FR dont need to panic either. I think both managers will try and sneak a win, but its not a must-win game for FR, nor us, and that is a crucial factor. Maybe there is no need to go at them from the start, maybe keep this for the 2nd half.

I would take a 0-0 at this stage .... as would Kerr I'm sure, but dreams can happen .... up the boys in green.

redspider

Praetorian · 05-09-2005 9:52am

LFCFan wrote:

I've lost all faith in Kerr. Only a terrifc performance and result against France will put some of that faith back. The straw that broke the camels back was the Israel game. 2-0 up and cruising and he changes the game with his rediculous substitutions and tactics. If we don't qualify for the WC he has to go. He seems out of his depth at international level.

I agree completely.

Everyone is underestimating the Swiss. We were lucky to get a draw in the away game, and don't forget they beat us twice easily last time around.

Remember this? http://www.sportnetwork.net/main/s63/st26463.htm

[Jackass] · 05-09-2005 6:13pm

Israel are a decent team, but to be fair have been extremely lucky in a few of their results...none more so than in Dublin.

Swiss are decent, but we are better, and, as it's at home and a massive game (qualification), I am confident we will win.

No matter what happens against France, if we win that game and beat cyprus, we will at least get a play-off. I think that is what we will get. (we threw the group away....)

I think France will be a draw, so unless we can put 4 or 5 past cyprus or if switzerland can get something at home in Basel, we will finish 2nd. I would have taken that when the group draw was made, but we defenatly through it away.

So here are my predictions of the teams we could meet in the play-offs (without trying to jump the gun by getting ahead of ourselves of course, but just for the most probable scenario imo. The teams in brackets are the lesser likely team to be i play-offs):

Group 1: Czech Republic (Romania)
Group 2: Turkey (Greece)
Group 3: Slovakia (Russia)
Group 4: Ireland (France)
Group 5: Norway (Slovenia)
Group 6: Poland (England)
Group 7: Serbia & Mont. (Spain)
Group 8: Sweden (Croatia)

Some tough games in there!

jubbly · 05-09-2005 7:06pm

i thought we face countries like iraq in the play offs ? I dont wanna go there. we could face Spain and lose ><

what about the israelis , they only face the faroes home and away and thats a 6 point banker for them.

Wednesday is a draw. Anything else will be a MAJOR shock

Kingp35 · 06-09-2005 11:59am

Well first off Redspider am I missing something? Why are you calling Switzerland CH?

The game against France to all incentive purposes is not a must win game but in order to have a chance of winning the group it’s a must draw game at least. The draw between Switzerland and Israel couldn’t have been any better for us and to be honest at this point the top spot is between ourselves and France. I know the others could possibly nick it but its highly unlikely at this point. We have an easier run in than France in that we get to play the Swiss at home where as France have to play in Basle. I really fancy us to beat the Swiss in Landsdown because when it comes down to a huge game that will mean we qualify we usually win in Landsdown. We should beat Cyprus but I really don’t think it will be as easy as everyone is thinking and we certainly wont run up a big score against them. Ireland have a great reputation for slipping up against minnow teams so Im hoping it doesn’t happen this time. I do expect us to win though.

So basically what im getting at is that the biggest game for us in this group might well be a game where we are not even involved in - Switzerland V France. If the Swill can pull off a draw in Basle Ireland will be huge favourites to top the group. We will simply have to beat the Swiss which I fancy us to do. If France beat the swiss then I feel we will finsh second. Of course though this all depends on us avoiding defeat against the French which is very important. If we will be in a bit if trouble and we will only be able to grab a play-off spot but we could still pull it off.

So basically avoid defeat gainst the French and await the outcome of the Switzerland V France game. That’s is the game that could decide our fate in this group and I expect that it will. Then again if we beat France all is good. I cant wait for Wednesday night its going to be amazing!!

StickyMcGinty · 06-09-2005 12:11pm

Why are you calling Switzerland CH?

CH is their abbreviation like our IE - Ch = Confoederatio Helvetica = Switzerland

i reckon a draw tomorrow night, and hope for the same in the french/swiss game. we beat the CH'ers nd cyprus and we're top!

jubbly · 06-09-2005 12:36pm

i think your forgetting israel. They only have 2 games left, faroes home and away. thats 6 points for them

StickyMcGinty · 06-09-2005 12:40pm

jubbly wrote:

i think your forgetting israel. They only have 2 games left, faroes home and away. thats 6 points for them

bet ye israel wont take 6 points off the faroes... their luck will run out they're been so jammy through the whole group

jubbly · 06-09-2005 12:45pm

That stinky nation is riding on a wave of optimisim like we were back in 1990. Them making Germany would be a diaster.

Mark · 06-09-2005 1:02pm

That stinky nation is riding on a wave of optimisim like we were back in 1990. Them making Germany would be a diaster.

Do you wish we hadn't qualified for WC90 then? Christ, teams must have felt the same about us back the day, give Israel some credit and try and show a bit of perspective.

jubbly · 06-09-2005 1:29pm

I cant. They arent a european nation and i dont like their country or the way they play. At least we were the under dog back then and everyone gets behind the underdog.

Brian017 · 06-09-2005 2:41pm

VinnyL wrote:

CH is their abbreviation like our IE - Ch = Confoederatio Helvetica = Switzerland!

Is it not SUI or something for Suisse or something like that?

StickyMcGinty · 06-09-2005 2:47pm

check out www.swiss.ch, www.switch.ch its their top level domain too...

and its on their car redges

Kingp35 · 06-09-2005 4:00pm

VinnyL wrote:

CH is their abbreviation like our IE - Ch = Confoederatio Helvetica = Switzerland

You learn something new everyday!!

Necronomicon · 06-09-2005 4:07pm

Mark wrote:

Do you wish we hadn't qualified for WC90 then? Christ, teams must have felt the same about us back the day, give Israel some credit and try and show a bit of perspective.

I think Israel deserve more credit as well. Never underestimate the power of playing to your strengths. Just ask Greece that.
Just look at Bolton. They had a style of playing last season that wasn't flash or particularly exciting, but they were hard to beat and it worked for them. And they got into Europe. You could say that Norwich were more exciting to watch, and they ended up relegated. Israel are by no means the prettiest to watch but they deserve credit for still being within a shout of qualifying at this stage.

Group 4 Permutations

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