Stormy Wednesday...

ninebeanrows

Model consenus has now firmly pointed Wednesday out to be one of the
stormiest August days in decades. A main low to the north of Scotland
will begin to form at T+72hrs but prior to this a secondary LP orbiting the main
low pressure will develop to the west of Ireland. GFS swings this to
the south but with a less developed system but UKMO develops quite
a severe situation for some Irish coasts and a very windy day countrywide.

Nonetheless whatever scenario is correct Wednesday will be a througly
miserable day with upto 40mm of rain in places and wind gusts of upto
70MPH up the Irish Sea and along the Western Seaboard.

Im worrying most about a swath of winds which is expected to extent
up the Irish sea during Wednesday morning. Model guidance suggest
40mph sustained winds 20 miles inland of the eastern coast. With
gusts of toawrds 65-70mph.

I reckon if your getting a ferry to the UK on Wednesday morning to stay
tuned to weather updates as at the current stage i don't see any
sailings living any of the Irish ports before 2pm Wednesday.

UKMO's picture of the late Summer Storm
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm961.gif

And then when it bombs to the North of Scotland
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif

billy the squid

UKMet FAX chart
http://217.160.176.95/wz/pics/brack4.gif

it doesnt look like it is going to be a pretty week weatherwise. worth watching that though.

ninebeanrows

O.K guys as this storm fires north past Scotland a Triple
point front will cross over Ireland. Around the area of this triple
point is deep instability and the possibility of Tornadic and serious
thunderstorm activity is raised.

The area's that should be on the watch stretc from the middle
west of the country to the middle east of the country.

A line from Clare to Dublin.

The triple pointed front should pass over from 0100z - 0800z on Wednesday.

It will nevertheless be very windy as this front passes by. Land gusts good
reach 50mph with sustained winds of 25-30mph. Coastal areas could
see gusts to 60mph with sustained winds of 30-35mph for a time.

billy the squid

having looked at the current UK charts, i would lay a bet that things will start to deteriorate before nightfall on tuesday. circa 7-9 pm.

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote:

Around the area of this triple
point is deep instability and the possibility of Tornadic and serious
thunderstorm activity is raised.

The area's that should be on the watch stretc from the middle
west of the country to the middle east of the country.

A line from Clare to Dublin.

ó_O

DapperGent wrote:

Nail up some storm shutters and hide in the basement with your family. Better bring the dog in too. God willing you'll make it through the night. I'll be praying for you.

Hopefully the blizzards won't have snowed you in by tomorrow. Maybe go to the supermarket and stock up on canned food just in case.

Mothman

OMG

I just got a serious case of Déjà Vu ....

billy the squid

Whilst the tornado alert business is a little Over the Top, fair dues he called this depression fairly early on.

As for winds, I would gues that it will mainy be a northern affair, although we can expect bucketloads of rain.

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_06_UTC/12_30.gif
http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_06_UTC/18_30.gif
http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_06_UTC/24_30.gif

ninebeanrows

Earthman wrote:

ó_O

You know you may think im mad when i mention tornadoes but
it's worth mentioning that the possibility of them is heightened
considerably in this situations, That's where you get a real
mix up of different air at the point on the front.

As for the winds. Gusts of 60-70mph around the coasts and up
to 40-50mph over land. Quite something for late August.

And have a look at the satellites as she rapidly develops tonite

ninebeanrows

Getting very windy here now.

Gusts already exceeding 50mph in the west

billy the squid

Today FM were predicting gusts of 80-100 in their forcasts, I'm more or less only in the door so havent had a chance to look aroung the web to see how accurate that is.

fatherdougalmag

That'd be in the new-fangled Km/h. Or is that KM/h?

Mothman

Belmullet has already had 67 mph (107 km/h) gust with 10 min avg up to 46mph (74 km/h).

billy the squid

http://www.metoffice.com/weather/europe/uk/radar/

some heavy rain coming off of that low, hitting scotland though, wonder how long before we get some of that.

Mothman

Met Eireann has 56Ks (65mph) as strongest gust at Belmullet. Malin Head recorded 63mph.

With me it was a mild, damp and at times windy night. Max 10 min speed of 28mph with gust of 48mph. Strongest gust since 48mph on May 23rd and before that 61mph on March 5th.
6mm rain last night

Now it's very quiet. Cloud is only 1/8 so lovely sunshine. No sign of last nights wind in garden.