Wednesday

scojones

I have only looked at beverly today, if I find the time to look at the cards for the other meetings I will post more.
Beverly
2.10 Bailieborough
This fellow's form has been very consistant over the last two years. D Nicholls and A Nicholls combination today. He came 3rd out of 15 here in June of last year in a handicap race, and has improved quiet a bit since then. He didn't do himself any justice in his last race, and I'm willing to forgive him of that here today, where the ground is perfect for him.

Beverly 3.10 Artie
Still chasing that win for 2005 is Artie. I think the trainer has put him the the perfect races leading up to this race, and he is more than ready to take this lot on. I was very impressed with him on August 1st where he came second in a class 3 race. With this move up to class 4, i'm expecting a big win from him today.

Beverly 4.10 Real Cool Cat
I'm going to chance my arm here and go against fade's choice of Oblique, with Real Cool Cat. Although this will probably come back to bite me as this is his third race since August 1st. He did tire in last 200yrds of the last race, but that was after runing a 12f race a few days pervious. I'm expecting an improvement over his third position last time around, today.

Beverly 4.40 Bold Eagle && Elraawy Reverse Forecast
I'm not sure if pp will let me do a reverse forecast on this as there is only 4 horses in the race. I'll check it out. I don't really think there's a need for a reason for this selection tbh.

Morgans

I think Artie should win as well, but I find it hard to believe that connections were readuying him for this race. His draw is by far and away the biggest factor in his favour. Probably wont get cuaght.

You should be allowed to do the reverse forecast in that race. But I wouldnt do it with stolen money. There is every chance that you might lose on the bet, even if they finish first and second.

masterK

While agreeing that Artie has a great chance in this race I wouldn't be rushing into backing him at 5/2. His record on Good to Firm or faster ground leaves a lot to be desired. He has only won once in 21 starts on GF or firmer and that was a chester maiden where he was well drawn back in 2001.

At the odds I think I'll be having an each way bet on Winthorpe, well drawn and although difficult to call right is useful on his day. He is also 5lb below his last winning mark, 10/1 looks a decent price to me.

scojones

Salisbury 3.30 Celtic Spa
Great form in it's last four races, three of which were at Salisbury. I have no idea why the RP are overlooking this horse. It has finished very strongly in the three races at Salisbury, and did not finish outside of the top three either. The ground today is perfect for it.

I'm calling the bookie's bluff on Percy's Pearl who is 6/4 at the moment. You can get Celtic Spa at 9/1 from 10s.

Morgans

You are right MasterK. There is no secret about the draw at beverly and 5/2 is too short, but he is the most likely winner.

scojones

Salisbury 4.00 Polar Jem
A jockey change today to let McEvoy take over a job well done from A McCarthy. I'm ruling out La Persianna straight away as Polar Jem beat her in Yarmoth, however it has been on the improve since then, so I do admit this is a bit of a risk. That aside, Polar Jem's form is consistant, as a class 1 runner's form should be. With McEvoy on board today, I think she has it in her to overcome La Persianna and call the bluff on Something Exciting. Polar Jem had a well deserved rest after Ascot in September to come back and win at Newmarket in mid July, and I think she will do it again here today.

masterK

Has anybody any strong feelings on Something Exciting in the big race today? At first glance a classic runner up dropping to listed class should be a good thing.
But, I'm prepared to oppose her today, a form line through Asawer points to her having bit to find with Polar Jem, another line through Red Bloom leaves her with something to find with La Persiana. Her last two runs have indicated that she's gone off the boil so I'm quite happy to side with Polar Jem at around 9/2 as opposed to the 11/8 on offer for Something Exciting.

Only just noticed you post there sjones, great minds eh?

scojones

Hehe, great minds indeed masterK.

Bailieborough wins @ 3/1

fade2black

2/2 so far...impressive stuff

masterK

Well done sjones, hope you got an early price on Artie.

scojones

Artie wins @ 7/4

Cheers lads

Crumbs

Gowran Park, 5:20 - 2yo nurseries aren't usually my thing but I know one of the owners of Distant Piper. It's not a strong tip but she's "expected to run well". She ran in three 7f maidens, finishing strongly each time for 3rd, 4th and 3rd. Unfortunately it's 7f again today when obviously a longer trip would suit but this time she has Kinane up. I'm pretty confident that she'll place, so at around 5/1 - 6/1, we can afford an each-way bet.

scojones

Celtic Spa didn't win, however I was right with highlighting Percy's Pearl as a false favourite.

scojones

Well done there fade. Great stuff. Real Cool Cat was 2nd.

scojones

Bold Eagle and Elraawy come in for the forecast. Not a bad day in Beverly. Best of luck with Distant Piper, Crumbs, I hope it comes in for you

Crumbs

sjones wrote:

Best of luck with Distant Piper, Crumbs, I hope it comes in for you

Damn it sjones, now I can't delete my post after you've said that.
Errr, what can I say. I've just spoken with the owners and they say that the horse has almost reached the furlong pole.

Good work today, sjones!

scojones

Haha, I can delete my post if you like, then you can remove it

Cheers mate.

Morgans

sjones well done on the winners, just be careful with those reverse forecasts. The beverly one you recommended paid £1.85 meaning that you would have lost 15c for each euro stake you put on. For it to be profitable, we needed the second fav to win. Well done on the profitable day.

scojones

Aye, If I had have went for the straight forecast.... but everytime I have done that, it has always burnt me, so whenever a forecast is in sight, I do a reverse on it because to be honest, I'm sick of being burnt on them. The race itself was a two horse race, and when I picked it out I did not even take the prices into consideration. That's just me, I rarely look at the actual prices when I am selecting my horses.

Thanks a million for everyone's input today. There was a good few insights to the races today and alot of your opinions made me think about the races from a totally different point of view.

cheers lads.

Morgans

My advise for betting on forecasts.

Only do them in Ireland - the dividends are a lot bigger here as the outsiders are shorter prices. 100/1 shots in England would be 25s here. It effects the forecast pool and the betting percentages.

Only do straight forecasts. Reverse forecasts are a throwaway bet, doubling your stake, essentially because you havent decided who will win. There are som exceptions, two horses you fancy in a big field handicap - in which case most of the time its tricky enough to come up with the winner - and it might be a better option to have two single bets - and there's no point being greedy.

Where Straight forecasts can be used, is it you have a clear idea of the winner, but think there is no value in the favourite, if you have a good idea of the second, it is the online way of punting on the 'betting without the favourite' that you will get at the track. Generally maidens and conditions races, uncompetitive races where only a handful have a chance, are best.

Also, straight forecasts are useful in laying off a bet. If you have a big punt on a horse which you can see only one possible danger, its not a bad policy to do a forecast with the danger beating your selection. Its a cheaper way of recovering some if not all of your outlay.

Summary
Only in Ireland,
Only in non-handicap
Only straight forecasts
Only where there are a max of four possible winners on the formbook - where you oppose two for whatever reason

pro_gnostic_8

Morgans wrote:

Only do them in Ireland - the dividends are a lot bigger here as the outsiders are shorter prices. 100/1 shots in England would be 25s here. It effects the forecast pool and the betting percentages.

Respectfully, Morgans, you have lost me there. And I ask this for my own enlightenment rather than in argument. Are you referring to a scenario where an outsider would be a component of the forecast? If that were the case, then surely, an outsider with a bigger price would be reflected in a higher CSF return.
And in the Bold Eagle/Elraawy forecast referred to in this thread the return of 1.85 is CSF ............ which is entirely independent of the betting pool. CSF is, as you are aware, a bookmakers formulaic structure based on SP's of the two horses concerned and irrelevant to the size of the betting pool.

Regards,
pro

Morgans

no argument there.

The formula used to come up with the straight forecast takes into account the betting percentage of the race. I cant claim to know everything about betting percentages, maybe someone else will enlighten us both.

my understanding so far would be in a simplistic example, that in a 2 horse race, if the bookies were running an even book should one horse be 1/2 then the second horse should be 2/1. This is 100 betting percentage. This rarely if ever happens. Bookmakers set prices to ensure that they have something in hand mathemtically. It prevents some clever lads betting on every horse and coming out a winner on occasions, in general bookies have a 10-20% mathematical favour built into them.

At Salisbury yesterday the betting percentage is each of the seven races were
111%
121%
110%
113%
120%
119%

Horses with an 100/1 chance of winning a race are priced up as such for the most part in England. PLus the widespread use of betfair also means that bookies dont get the business on track if they dont price up fairly.

In Ireland it is very much different, the betting percentages of the races at Gowran yesterday are

152%
125%
117%
153%
138%
145%
147%
127%

Remember that the greater the percentage above 100 the greater the mathematical advantage for the bookmaker.

Whatever the formula used by the computer to generate the Forecast, i dont think anyone knows for sure what is used, it takes into account the prices of all horses in the race, and the fact that outsiders in Irish races have sps less than they should have, a horse that should be 50s in England would be 25s at most in Ireland - more wary of huge gambles being one reason. To the computer the outsiders have a better chance than they actually have, as a result when you back two shorter priced horses in a forecast, you get a bigger return.

It doesnt just take in the sps of the two horses in the forecast. In which case, you would now know the forecast for each combination of sps. Other factors are considered.

pro_gnostic_8

Indeed, there has long-term been a noticeable disparity between Irish and UK over-rounds. As you say the Betfair influence has much to do with this ......... on-course books in UK now more or less take their tissue and and follow the real-time prices from the Betfair trades. However, it is also arguable that in many races in Ireland only 2 or 3 horses are actually being backed to any kind of money. The outsiders are in effect no-hopers that the dogs in the street know haven't a snowball's. The Irish higher over-round isn't a fair reflection of the true market ............. the margins are in fact extremely tight on the top 3 in betting for the bookmaker. Many Books have simply walked away from the Irish on-course scene in recent years and sold up.

It might be interesting to note that the take-out by Tote Ireland is only 10% for races of less than 10 runners as compared to the approx 20% deducted by Totesport UK. The lesson here is that if you have a penchant for doing forecasts then it is worthwhile to get a Tote Ireland account. Last night at Gowran seven of the eight races had a substantially higher Exacta return than the equivalent CSF.
4.50 ....... Ex 39.00, CSF 39.94
5.20 ....... Ex 548.30, CSF 156.94
5.50 ....... Ex 115.50, CSF 50.06
6.20 ....... Ex 78.20, CSF 54.43
6.50 ....... Ex 140.70, CSF 56.59
7.25 ....... Ex 129.20, CSF 118.52
7.55 ....... Ex 23.50, CSF 18.23
8.25 ....... Ex 40.90, CSF 24.12

Morgans

isnt the exacta to a 2 unit stake? I genuinely have never put one on.