Monster Draw plus Pair but no folding equity

Hectorjelly

Real Money Ring Game
Table Name Hand ID Game Stakes
The Fast and the Furious 3451735-69114 Holdem No Limit $0.50/$1
[Aug 5 13:03:53] : Hand Start.
[Aug 5 13:03:53] : Seat 1 : craigy boy has $238.25
[Aug 5 13:03:53] : Seat 2 : fab001 has $85.25
[Aug 5 13:03:53] : Seat 3 : el valiente has $126.08
[Aug 5 13:03:53] : Seat 4 : hectorjelly has $175.25
[Aug 5 13:03:53] : Seat 5 : asajay has $82.57
[Aug 5 13:03:53] : Seat 6 : pattaya has $80.37
[Aug 5 13:03:53] : fab001 is the dealer.
[Aug 5 13:03:53] : el valiente posted small blind.
[Aug 5 13:03:54] : hectorjelly posted big blind.
[Aug 5 13:03:54] : Game [69114] started with 5 players.
[Aug 5 13:03:54] : Dealing Hole Cards.
[Aug 5 13:03:54] : Seat 4 : hectorjelly has Ts 9s
[Aug 5 13:03:56] : asajay called $1
[Aug 5 13:03:59] : pattaya called $1 and raised $4
[Aug 5 13:04:00] : fab001 called $5
[Aug 5 13:04:38] : el valiente folded.
[Aug 5 13:04:39] : hectorjelly called $4
[Aug 5 13:04:45] : asajay folded.
[Aug 5 13:04:46] : Dealing flop.
[Aug 5 13:04:46] : Board cards [7s 4h 8s]
[Aug 5 13:04:49] : hectorjelly checked.
[Aug 5 13:04:52] : pattaya bet $5
[Aug 5 13:04:54] : fab001 called $5
[Aug 5 13:04:56] : hectorjelly called $5
[Aug 5 13:04:58] : Dealing turn.
[Aug 5 13:04:58] : Board cards [7s 4h 8s 9h]
[Aug 5 13:05:00] : hectorjelly checked.
[Aug 5 13:05:03] : pattaya bet $5
[Aug 5 13:05:06] : fab001 called $5 and raised $40

If the stacks were shorter Id check raise on the flop, so I thought Id do the same on the turn, but fab ruined that plan. Here are my notes on Fab:

idiot
total idiot, mtt. Limped with 35, bet A J 3 flop and called all in

But in this case I doubt he is making this move with air.

Whats my plan?

dropsy

Are all your notes that cryptic HJ?

You've got to figure that you're behind Fab at least (and probably behind the pf raiser too - overpair?) at this point so, assuming that Fab would call a reraise, for me it's call or fold. If Fab really is as bad as you say then I think you'll get better opportunities to get his money later given that you've got position on him too. Worst case, your only outs are a spade if you think he could call the pf raise with TJ. You have $10 invested in a $75 pot and are getting just less than 2/1 to call (maybe 3/1 if pf raiser calls). I think I'd dump this and wait for a better situation.
(Having said that, if you dumped it I guess you wouldn't be posting so I look forward to reading how it played out )

roryc

I know its probably the wrong move but I'd call. Gotta love those open-ended straight flush draws!

Imposter

I think you have to fold. There's still the initial raiser to act and your pair is probably beaten at the moment by at least one of them. Your flush is not very strong and either of them could be drawing to a better flush. Similarly JT could be out there so your straight could also be behind or equal if it hits.

Too much risk imo when pretty much any of the hands you are drawing to could be beaten.

Dave

Are straightflush draws marginally ahead in this situation. As in aren't you just above 50:50 against an overpair before the turn and river? I know this has nothing to do with the topic, sorry

impr0v

It's probably an indictment of my abilities but I'd call this, given what your notes say and the fact that you have top pair plus the afore-mentioned monster draw.

Pattaya could mix it up a bit with a re-raise if he (he/she) thinks he's ahead but I don't think it would be in his interests to do so even with TJ as if both you and fab bet 40 now you're likely to call another 30 odd whether it's made now or on the river.

Tackle

When vc gives you a flush draw on the turn you take it, end of story

Unless he's in that special 1% category of retarded retard (I saw a guy call an all-in today for $35 with Q high), he's ahead of you here. I think it's about evens odds-wise, just looking at it, so the correct move would probably be to fold as you'll have a greater than even money chance of taking his money later. Although I probably couldn't resist calling it.

careca

The fact that he only called the flop and then reraised the turn, plus your notes would lead me to believe he has two hearts. Possibly A7h or A8h. He would call the original raise with this (idiot), would call the flop bet with this (not too bad a call if he put ye on AX) and would think his second/third pair with a flush draw is a monster.

Ok, thats the wrong answer out of the way , whats the right one.

Waylander

I'm thinking Pataya has a high pair or AK, so I would expect Pataya to fold to this bet. If fab is as much of an idiot as you are saying it is very hard to put him on a hand, but I think I would put him on a high flush draw, with possibly a pair on the board also, so you could actually be ahead with the top pair on the board. On the downside he has about another $30, with position on you in this hand. I think I would be tempted to call.

Iago

I'd raise all-in here. It's insanely aggressive with the emphasis on insanely and yes, yes I know it's the wrong move for a number of reasons but I'd do it anyway, and then come here and complain about how unlucky I was, not to mention realising that I'm not half as good as I think I am but...

Firstly if you flat call here you'll find it hard to drop your hand on the river unless another heart comes out, and even then it'll be difficult. You're looking for a spade, a jack, a six, a nine and maybe a 10. of course none of these is guaranteed to win it for you but it's a chance I'd be willing to take.

Secondly if you are going to get involved then you don't want to invite the initial raiser into the party, he's probably ahead of you both at the moment. There's a lot of value for him if you flat call, but if you force him all-in he may drop a better hand. There's a significant raise and a push after he acted after all, unless he's holding a set he has to be very worried.

Thirdly if the player fab is as loose and bad as you think then it's entirely possible that hes chasing a heart flush draw and maybe holding Ah 7h or Ah 4h, in which case you're ahead and want your chips in the middle.

Last but not least even if you lose here, if Fab wins he'll get an overinflated sense of himself and you should be able to get all your chips back from him. Not to mention that the rest of the table is going to add you to their notes as a loose flush chasing monkey and you can use this to your advantage until they cop to the truth...

...also if he's as bad as you think he is he may still fold here, sure it would be a stupid thing to do but so were his calls in your notes.

Ste05

To put it simply I think I'd call or go all in based on your notes, it looks slightly like a strong positional move, but he wouldn't risk half his stack with nothing

So, as an analysis of the possibilities I think it's unlikely he has trips, very possibly J10, and called for an inside straight draw, leaving you with 2 outs.

I'd say the range of hands he could have would be J10, 910, A/Kxs (very possibly 4 or a 9) and small possibility of 77, 44, 88, 99. I can't see him really having less than these unless he's a complete maniac. And so I'd probably be inclined to fold,

You also have to factor in the original raiser. Slow playing an over pair?? (more than likely than likely AK suited and so there's a 50/50 chance he has the nut flush draw)

But as I started with because of the up and down straight flush draw I'd have to call just to see if I could hit it - you've got to love it. And no matter how bad shape you're in at least you're not drawing dead. Which has to be a bonus.

Another play would be to go all in, lose the original raiser and hope fab has a small pair with an A or K kicker and was pushing - either way you'll get called I'm sure

I'm sure I'm way off but looking forward to see how it finished.

AmarilloFats

FOld. Yer hand was strong on the flop.It ain't strong no more
now, if you call u could be facing a re-raise...
A heart mite kill your action... or you are beaten by bigger flush...a and if you str8 it aint the nuts
.. Fold
Nice notes.
hope it worked out

Juan Pablo

Jap Saiii! Gamble gamble! Spade Open, Jack Open, Six Open! Nine or Ten maybe open too! Today, I play! 15 or so outs on the river and you are facing a pot sized raise? although i'm on the fence between calling here so as to allow pattaya in or pushing to get the last of fab001's money in. Its marginal between the two......or not, as I'm sure we'll find out!

roryc

well??

what happened:)

Marq

I disagree with Iago on raising all in. Despite the weakness of the betting so far, this is just a pot sized raise, although it looks like a vast over bet. I don't particularly care what fab is on, I think your hand dictates that you call. the reason I call and don't raise all in is that I don't want to knock the original raiser out of the pot. he has 66 dollars left. If you hit you want them all, and if he doesn't come into the pot on the turn you don't get any.

You have an open-ended straight flush draw, I think in this situation you want as many callers as possible becase while you can be absolutely sure that right now you do not the best hand, you're almost guaranteed that if you hit your hand, you will.

From your notes, fab's play in this hand, and the size of his stack compared to that of the pot if you call, I think fab will either bet or call on the river no matter what comes down. you're getting paid by fab if you hit, so your concern should be getting the extra forty (+26) dollars in the pot from pattaya.

Also, as you're sure that you're behind now, you save yourself 30 dollars should you not hit, as you can simply fold on the river. So even without pattaya to act behind you I think calling would be the right play.

Folding to a pot sized bet with this large a draw against this player is not an option.

Hectorjelly

Ok so I had three options, folding calling or raising all in. To decide which is best we first of all we have to guess what we are up against. I think its very unlikely that Pataya has a hand. From his small bet on the turn its probably likely he has missed overcards. Even if he has an overpair (which I think is unlikely) Id say he would probably fold it if I call/raise. Fabs hand is much harder to figure out, but I think its most likely two pair, or one pair and straight draw, with a smaller chance of being a set, a straight or just a flush draw.

Now that I have picked up a pair folding isnt really an option. If he has two pair then I have half the deck working for me, and theres also a slight chance that we both have the same flush draw, in which case Im ahead as its unlikely he has hit a pair as well. Against most of his hand range calling here is +EV, and there are only a few hands in which it would be - EV. So if Im not folding then the choice is between calling and moving all in.

The advantage to calling as has been noted is that im going to need to hit one my outs to win, so there is no need to push the original raiser out of the pot. However I thought that it was so unlikely that he would call the $40 that it really didnt matter whether I called or raised to him. I decided to move in because some of my outs are going to put a 4 card straight on the board, or 3 to a flush; and there is a chance I might not get paid off. So I moved in knowing I was almost certainly behind and that he was going to call.

He had 78s for a flopped two pair, and the maths behind it is quite beautifull. I win exactly 50% of the time! So all the money that went in was exactly EV neutral, but folding would of been a mistake because of the dead money.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1126202
pokenum -h ts 9s - 7c 8c -- 7s 4h 8s 9h
Holdem Hi: 44 enumerated boards containing 8s 7s 9h 4h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ts 9s 22 50.00 22 50.00 0 0.00 0.500
8c 7c 22 50.00 22 50.00 0 0.00 0.500

The river was a 9 giving me a better two pair.

dropsy

Makes sense HJ but the only reservation I have is that you put a lot of chips at risk on a coin flip with a player that you are clearly superior to - the EV of it may work out but I think you have to factor your opponent into it too which, IMO, makes folding and waiting for a better situation a valid option.

Hectorjelly

dropsy wrote:

Makes sense HJ but the only reservation I have is that you put a lot of chips at risk on a coin flip with a player that you are clearly superior to - the EV of it may work out but I think you have to factor your opponent into it too which, IMO, makes folding and waiting for a better situation a valid option.

You realise this is a cash game right?

dropsy

Hectorjelly wrote:

You realise this is a cash game right?

Guilty, your honour.

RoundTower

Hectorjelly wrote:

If the stacks were shorter Id check raise on the flop, so I thought Id do the same on the turn, but fab ruined that plan. Here are my notes on Fab:

I don't understand why you can't check raise all in here anyway. I normally play pot limit cash games but surely this is one of the situations where it is helpful to be able to make a massive overbet, because you are unlikely to be far behind at the moment, even if called, but you will be behind after most turn cards.