Putting someone all in with the 14th nuts

Hectorjelly

Villain is a bad player, Ive only been at the table a few minutes so no betting pattern tells. I think he either has a flush draw or a Q, maybe 2 pair and a slim possibility of a set. If he has a set Im happy to lose all my chips. Should I bet the river? He has almost exactly $50 behind and the pot is over $100, so if I bet Im putting him all in.

[Jul 26 21:47:56] : Hand Start.
[Jul 26 21:47:56] : Seat 2 : hectorjelly has $150.38
[Jul 26 21:47:56] : Seat 3 : carroll has $158.75
[Jul 26 21:47:56] : Seat 4 : opedia has $70.75
[Jul 26 21:47:56] : Seat 5 : ballycastle has $107.16
[Jul 26 21:47:56] : Seat 6 : babyace has $171.16
[Jul 26 21:47:56] : carroll is the dealer.
[Jul 26 21:47:57] : opedia posted small blind.
[Jul 26 21:47:57] : ballycastle posted big blind.
[Jul 26 21:47:57] : Game [59428] started with 5 players.
[Jul 26 21:47:57] : Dealing Hole Cards.
[Jul 26 21:47:57] : Seat 2 : hectorjelly has 4s 4h
[Jul 26 21:47:59] : babyace called $1
[Jul 26 21:48:00] : hectorjelly called $1
[Jul 26 21:48:04] : carroll called $1 and raised $1
[Jul 26 21:48:07] : opedia called $1.50
[Jul 26 21:48:08] : ballycastle called $1
[Jul 26 21:48:08] : babyace called $1
[Jul 26 21:48:08] : hectorjelly called $1
[Jul 26 21:48:09] : Dealing flop.
[Jul 26 21:48:09] : Board cards [8d Qs 4d]
[Jul 26 21:48:12] : opedia checked.
[Jul 26 21:48:16] : ballycastle bet $4
[Jul 26 21:48:16] : babyace folded.
[Jul 26 21:48:21] : hectorjelly called $4 and raised $8
[Jul 26 21:48:24] : carroll folded.
[Jul 26 21:48:25] : opedia called $12
[Jul 26 21:48:25] : ballycastle called $8
[Jul 26 21:48:25] : Dealing turn.
[Jul 26 21:48:25] : Board cards [8d Qs 4d 3c]
[Jul 26 21:48:27] : opedia checked.
[Jul 26 21:48:29] : ballycastle bet $4
[Jul 26 21:48:34] : hectorjelly called $4 and raised $40
[Jul 26 21:48:36] : opedia folded.
[Jul 26 21:48:42] : ballycastle called $40
[Jul 26 21:48:43] : Dealing river.
[Jul 26 21:48:43] : Board cards [8d Qs 4d 3c Kd]
[Jul 26 21:48:49] : ballycastle checked.

Lafortezza

I'd check behind, his betting pattern is weird, looks like a set of 8's maybe or more likely QdXd, top pair plus flush draw on the turn.

Tourneque

My initial feel, is that if I was playing the hand I would've checked it .. but NLH cash is not my best game.

I sure hope you're going to enlighten me with some good maths on this one as I've almost got a headache now after firing up the pokerstove but this is what I think:

Since you mentioned he's not a great player we'll give him a large range of hands.. including lots of diamonds and for argument sake, lets say your equity in the pot on the river is about 75% (?) - so that's around $100

From my messy matchbox, I figure if you put him all in, and we say he folds around 30% of the time, you still need him to call with a worse hand at least ~50% of the time to make it more profitable than checking. I'm not sure how likely that is on a flush board but then if it wasn't that board it wouldn't be interesting.

C'mon, lets see the numbers....

NickyOD

I can't see him smooth calling that raise on the turn with a stronger hand. I'm putting him all in for sure. If you tell me he has 88/KK or called that river bet on a flush draw I'll kick the dog.

Tackle

Looks more like top/two pair to me, he would've reraised you all in on the turn with a set. I think top pair is more likely than a flush if he's bet the flop and is a poor player. So I'd stick him all in here and fair plate to him if he's got the flush.

Ste05

I'm looking forward to see how this turned out for you.

His play is very very confusing, and without a read on how he's playing at the moment, me being a conservative player I think I'd just check it.

That call on the turn is absolutely melting my head, I think I agree with Iafortezza and that he probably had top pair with a flush draw, possibly QJd.

Lafortezza

It's the $4 bet on the turn after HJ raised the flop that confuses me. On the turn the pot is about $46? It seems like a bit of a blocking bet by someone with a reasonable hand plus a draw, 1 pair with 2 diamonds maybe.

Hectorjelly

On the turn I thought his most likely hand was the flush draw, as lafortezza mentioned thats often a stop bet by a draw. However it would be an awfully brave check on the river with a made flush, 9 times out of 10 im checking this behind but crucially I didnt fear a check raise so I put him all in. He called with QJo the silly monkey.

Daithio

I was going to say you should do exactly what you did on the river before I saw your post. Nice bet. People very rarely check a made flush on the river (especially heads up) because they know you will be afraid and they want to get some value from it. If he has 888 or KKK that's just tough luck really.

Waylander

Initially I would have thought top pair plus flush draw, but with the check on the river I agree with Daithio, he would have had to bet it. I think I would have pushed here.

NickyOD

Hectorjelly wrote:

He called with QJo the silly monkey.

Woohooo! Free Money!!