Elan share price on the up!!

kluivert

About time!!

I am hoping that they ll go all the way to €20+ again.

I bought some @ €6 each, bloody tax man and the brokers will get me profits.

Selik

Yeah good to see although pharmaceutical stocks by their very nature (esp Elan) are extremely volatile so if I can make a 100% profit on Elan I will sell. Bought around 450 shares at approx 5.65euro each after they plummeted a few months back.

kluivert

I was at college last year - final year of an accounting and finance degree, one class was where we had 10000e to invest in shares, i stuck the whole lot in Elan, the share price rocketed when it was announced that Elan received a license to test to new wonder drug. The share value was 25000e after three months. Sweet!

That doesnt happen every day that was a once id say.

FBD is continuing to grow but if have to stop at some stage.

nesf

You paper invested your entire sum in one share?

I assume you know that this is not a good idea in real trading in a portfolio situation.

Selik

nesf wrote:

You paper invested your entire sum in one share?

I assume you know that this is not a good idea in real trading in a portfolio situation.

Yeah it go only one of two ways at the same time, up or down!

kluivert

Yeah i invested everything into one share, and it worked, if i had the money i would not do it like that.

It was a short term investment and i went with a high risk stratgery that at the time paid off, not because i was lucky because i knew what i was doing.

Jivin Turkey

kluivert wrote:

It was a short term investment and i went with a high risk stratgery that at the time paid off, not because i was lucky because i knew what i was doing.

What you were privy to insider information in Elan?

Fitzer12345

kluivert wrote:

not because i was lucky because i knew what i was doing.

Fair play to you! I have made money on Elan at their current price but it was just luck. The company is a rollercoaster running on TYSABRI. In my opinion it will make or break the company. :eek:

nesf

kluivert wrote:

Yeah i invested everything into one share, and it worked, if i had the money i would not do it like that.

It was a short term investment and i went with a high risk stratgery that at the time paid off, not because i was lucky because i knew what i was doing.

*nods*

I agree completely mate. But I'd maintain there was still a nice degree of luck involved. There always is. Otherwise all you'd need was a little experience and you could almost literally print money.

(This is more directed at other people than you btw, just trying to reinforce the dangers of the markets to any casual readers)

Selik

nesf wrote:

*nods*

I agree completely mate. But I'd maintain there was still a nice degree of luck involved. There always is. Otherwise all you'd need was a little experience and you could almost literally print money.

(This is more directed at other people than you btw, just trying to reinforce the dangers of the markets to any casual readers)

That's very true. Just look at the highest and lowest price of some of the top stocks on the ISEQ in the past year!!! No stock is safe from a bit of a tumble especially in the short-term. I bought Iona Technologies less than 6mths ago at around E4.45 a share and look at it now - just scraping 50% of that price.

jay567

as said earlier tybsil (spl) will make all the difference in the price over the next 2-3 yrs.
seems that they are dealing with it well in the sence that they are now being open about whats happening.
Would love to see it come back to 20, but its a risk that u shouldnt consider taking unless u can afford to lose.

Selik

At least one thing that can never be said about Elan as a stock is that it's boring... Sit back, belt up and enjoy the ride!

Selik

Nice jump yesterday for Elan after the Tysabri update.

Fitzer12345

It is good news alright Giles. But as we all know Elan is a rollcoaster. Hopefully it will stay going up though!

ArthurDent

Fitzer12345 wrote:

It is good news alright Giles. But as we all know Elan is a rollcoaster. Hopefully it will stay going up though!

Not if the FDA insist on a black box warning for Tysabri - will mean no off-label uses. I'd imagine given the data coming out on PML at the moment this is a possiblity

Selik

I'm keeping my fingers crossed on this one big-time.

I just invested another E6.5k in Elan there a day or two ago. Got the funds from selling all my stake in IFG (I bought them in March at E1 a share so I made a nice quick profit of 37% there!)

I know it's a gamble and I know I will either win or lose, probably spectacularly in both cases.

It's certainly more interesting and engaging (even from afar) than leaving money on deposit but of course it has to be said that the stock market is not for everyone.

Jivin Turkey

Giles wrote:

I'm keeping my fingers crossed on this one big-time.

I just invested another E6.5k in Elan there a day or two ago. Got the funds from selling all my stake in IFG (I bought them in March at E1 a share so I made a nice quick profit of 37% there!)

I know it's a gamble and I know I will either win or lose, probably spectacularly in both cases.

It's certainly more interesting and engaging (even from afar) than leaving money on deposit but of course it has to be said that the stock market is not for everyone.

What price did you buy at? Ill be keeping an interested eye!

Selik

Jivin Turkey wrote:

What price did you buy at? Ill be keeping an interested eye!

6.76 a share I think. Price went down straight afterwards! :mad:

I just have a hunch about Elan and that they're going to come good. In which case I'll be a very happy camper.

If it all goes wrong I've only myself to blame I know what I'm getting into here. :cool:

Kersh

Hmm, Im going to throw 4k on Elan. I should have done ages ago, but I backed out. I will now, worth the risk I think.

Selik

Kersh wrote:

Hmm, Im going to throw 4k on Elan. I should have done ages ago, but I backed out. I will now, worth the risk I think.

Why not? He who dares and all that...

Haha and if it all goes wrong we can moan about it here on Boards!

nesf

Giles wrote:

Why not? He who dares and all that...

Haha and if it all goes wrong we can moan about it here on Boards!

If it all goes right you can subscribe

Keep us posted. It should prove interesting. I'm still a bit cautious about Elan tbh.

kluivert

Its a gamble put if you long term, should its price drop again it will rise again. but its depends on how quickly it will rise again and you could be waiting a very good time.

Now thats it coming into the winter session i think ill be putting my money into an Umbrella and overcoats company for the rainy days ahead.

Selik

Just seen that Elan closed at E8.99 yesterday. Excellent news!

Presumably on the news that the latest trials involving Tybrasi have concluded without any further deaths etc. They're now applying for a licence to sell the drug in the US and Europe. Good chance they'll get it I'd say and it would appear that the market would agree considering the price rose almost 10% yesterday!

Already in profit by almost 4k and counting if I sold now.

Gonna hold on to them though I've got a good feeling about this as I've maintained all along...

AARRRGH

You know, when Elan's shares dropped after the scandals, it was so obvious they would at least double in the short term.

Markets are so fickle.

I wish I had the cash to take advantage of dumb humans.

Selik

dublindude wrote:

You know, when Elan's shares dropped after the scandals, it was so obvious they would at least double in the short term.

Markets are so fickle.

I wish I had the cash to take advantage of dumb humans.

So true...

Markets, especially financial ones, almost always over-react whether positively or negatively from a stock's point of view.

It's an old cliche but.... buy low, sell high!

hamster

Oh... well when they slipped to €2+/share I was already loaded with Elan so while I was tempted (company was valued at €4/share excluding) I decided not to over expose myself this share by buying again. Regardless of what price I got it at... I do think going forward next year the recent news that it should appreciate more. With it a warning label going on the Tysabri would wait for €20? hmmm.

But yeah, nice to hold on it with 10 or so other shares... a nice spicy one in the mix. Try selling a chuck of a house.

ublinia2

Elan is on the up again - how long will it keep going for ?

Selik

For a good while yet hopefully...

I've had a hunch for a while about them really so I feel the price may even hit 20 a share again. I could cash out now with a nice serious profit so I'm still in gamble territory. They could crash again if there's anymore bad news on Tybrasi...

dunkamania

From a technical analysis point of view,a lot of what has said makes sense.

From a fundamental Analysis perspective the firm is posting negative earnings this year and expected negative earnings next year.
With that in mind the company is looking overvalued,unless earnings increase dramatically over the next 12 months.

drdre

i should have invested in elan ages ago i was going to but then stopped because i was joung and didnot want to loose out at that stage.how well are u guys doing on shares.i have 5000 euro i want to spend but donot know where to start.hope somone can help.
thanks in advance or even pm me

CorporalCarrot

Dre

If that 5k is all the money you have to invest there might be better places to put it because Elan is an extremely volatile stock.

Anyone who invests here needs to understand that at the moment (until at least its Alzheimers and nano programs start to deliver meaningful results), Elan is effectively a one trick pony, dependent on the re-introduction of Tysabri.

Tysabri however if re-introduced will be a blockbuster drug which could see the share price back in the $20-$30 range (it was at $29 before Tysabri was withdrawn).

But understand that one more case of PML or the FDA requesting more data or something before approval could see the share price halved immediately.

I suggest if you are thinking about buying, you visit the Yahoo! message board for Elan, and check out posts by pinvestment and others. These folks are extremely knowledgeable at the scientific level about the whole situation.

http://messages.yahoo.com/?action=q&board=ELN

Another site that has lots of research on the subject is

http://www.tixx.com/elan.htm

So appreciate the risks, before you invest.

C

Disclosure; I am long Elan shares and options and holding.

drdre

thanks alot i will check out those sites, end of the day if it even falls it will rise at somestage.and if it goes to 20-30 they u can make alot of profit.thats the risk involved in anything.i think this drug is going to suceed

dunkamania

drdre wrote:

i think this drug is going to suceed

why???

drdre

dunkamania i just have a feeling it will succeed as elan wonot want to go downhill like last time.anyway i will research it before i invest.

irishunion.com

drdre wrote:

dunkamania i just have a feeling it will succeed as elan wonot want to go downhill like last time.anyway i will research it before i invest.

drdre i'm also interested to invest a few k . If you have 5k and buy shares in elan or Radison SAS you'll pay the normal price per share.
But if you have €3 billion you can negociate the price you want to pay for a share. Correct? But i know by the sound of it, you don't have €3 billion, or enough to buy Elan. I also have a friend who wants to invest some money. I propose to make a team and find other ppl interested to invest some money, and buy a company or start one.

irishunion.com

Well if there is anybody interested to invest toghether as part of a team, please PM me.

kluivert

And Elan keep going up and up.

Economic law that what goes up will come down again.

Lifecycle of a business is the key in comparsion with the lifecycle of the industry.

keep an eye on Elan for an updates on new products to be realised on the market very soon.

Selik

kluivert wrote:

keep an eye on Elan for an updates on new products to be realised on the market very soon.

Hmmm...

pmk19

kluivert wrote:

And Elan keep going up and up.

Economic law that what goes up will come down again.

Lifecycle of a business is the key in comparsion with the lifecycle of the industry.

keep an eye on Elan for an updates on new products to be realised on the market very soon.

....go on

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

Selik

daveirl wrote:

This post has been deleted.

Good point!!! If you invest for a long enough period of time and are prepared to slug out the (possible)lows and downturns you will come through it at the end alot better off...

dunkamania

Check out this article on the most overpriced stocks in the US

http://biz.yahoo.com/ms/060113/153588.html

Below is the section on Elan

Elan ADR (NYSE:ELN - News)
Price/fair value ratio: 533%
From the Analyst Report: "Elan is a broken company desperately trying to fix itself. Its success requires Tysabri's return to the market, but even then, the company faces an uphill path to become cash flow positive (let alone stay that way). We have incorporated some of the risks into our fair value estimate, but we would still require a hefty margin of safety before investing."

Do people still think Elan is a good buy?

SouperComputer

Thought id give this a bump.

I have €1500 to "gamble". Is elan worth a shot or would I be just throwing money down the toilet? Its trading around €12 ATM.

Blackjack

SouperComputer wrote:

Thought id give this a bump.

I have €1500 to "gamble". Is elan worth a shot or would I be just throwing money down the toilet? Its trading around €12 ATM.

I don't see it rising too much from current levels unless there are changes to how Tysabri is used. It's currently under some restrictions, however it's expected to seel reasonably well.

You may be better off looking elsewhere for investment for now, I think it's made all it's gains for a while.