Euro/Dollar Exchange rate

atDendOFdDAY

Currently a euro gets 1.2 dollars or thereabout.

What do you see happening over the next few months?

Obviously your opinion will be pure speculation, but I'm interested in seeing what some wiser-than-me people think...

nesf

We're closing on August. That will be slow as always.

September. Hmm, well I'm not keeping tabs on it at the moment, but I'll be interested to see if how both economies fare in the autumn.

Sorry I can't be specific, but I've not got the time to watch the markets atm so anything I say would be totally uneducated guesswork for the most part.

chump

I was watching that CNBC channel yesterday, just as luck would have it there was a discussion on the strong (relatively I know) dollar (vs. euro).

One lad thought it would stay the same for a while, maybe dip to 1.17

The other lad could see the dollar trading for 1.10euro, as he reckons thats about an honest market price...

I'm hitting the states in a little over a month, may well exchange some moneys now!

dearg_doom

1.10! Jeez that's a good deal for the yanks!

If the rate falls anywhere below that, the US multi's will probably have record profits come year end!

The currency markets are mental, a couple months ago everyone was cacking themselves that the dollar would fall to 2pounds sterling!!

Chipboard

I heard the dollar will strengthen to about 1.15.

When you think about it though, you might as well be guessing which way the wind will blow. None of us knew what was coming when we got out of be on 11 Sept 2001 and look at the repercussions that followed.

Bluehair

Buffets got €21 billion bet aggainst the dollar long term based on US fundamentals (primarely but not exclusively the defisit).

Thats good enough for me and my crystal ball

Thomond Pk

dearg_doom wrote:

the dollar would fall to 2pounds sterling!!

Don't you mean one pound to $2?

As Paul Brady said in 1989 'The answer is nobody knows' what is going through the minds of the Asian central bankers who decide where that continents foreign reserves reside. I would speculate that if the republican rhetoric continues in relation to the chinese currency that the dollar looks seriously overvalued.

Easily_Irritated

The dollar and the sterling will stay as it is with little variation for a while, Id say. There has been little or no change for a long time (as in about 4 months) for the rates to change the euro would have to pick up majorially. Which probably won't happen any time soon. I'd say we'll stay as we are for the next at least 3 months.

So if you're goin to England or America be prepared to pay more than you did for your monies!

Thomond Pk

Easily_Irritated wrote:

The dollar and the sterling will stay as it is with little variation for a while, Id say. There has been little or no change for a long time (as in about 4 months)

US expects Chinese currency revaluation
By Demetri Sevastopulo and Andrew Balls in Washington, and Richard McGregor in Beijing
Published: July 15 2005 02:08 | Last updated: July 15 2005 04:16

The Bush administration has told key senators that it expects China to revalue its currency in August ahead of a planned visit to Washington by President Hu Jintao in September, according to people familiar with the matter.


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Senators Charles Schumer and Lindsey Graham, co-sponsors of a bill that would impose a 27.5 per cent tariff on Chinese imports, agreed to delay a vote on their bill after receiving what they regarded as an assurance that China will move on its currency next month.

In a June meeting attended by Alan Greenspan, Federal Reserve chairman, John Snow, Treasury secretary, told the senators that he believed China would allow the value of the renminbi to increase against the dollar in August, the people familiar with the discussion said.

“Senator Graham and I believe that the administration is convinced that China will begin a revaluation process this summer, forced by our bill's success in the Senate,” Mr Schumer told the FT.

Asked how Congress would respond if China did not move over the summer, Mr Schumer replied: “Every day support grows [for our bill]”.

The US Treasury has told Beijing it needs to revalue the renminbi by at least 10 per cent against the dollar. Mr Snow reiterated on Thursday that the US wanted China to move “as soon as possible.”



China’s forex reserves increase to US$711bn



China’s foreign exchange reserves increased by just over US$100bn in the first six months of this year to US$711bn, nearly double the rate at which its store of overseas currency rose in the same period last year.

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China is considering introducing a currency regime similar to the managed float operated by Singapore. Under this system the renminbi would be pegged to a basket of currencies reflecting the country's trade, but the details of the weights of the basket would not be made public, a person familiar with the Chinese administration's thinking said.

Tony Fratto, Treasury spokesman, said: “Secretary Snow did not provide an assurance on a specific time-frame for when China would reform its currency regime. Targeting a specific date or time-frame is counter-productive. That said, it is clear that China is prepared to move now. It would be in the best interests of China, and the global financial system, if these reforms came sooner rather than later.”

At the June meeting Mr Snow and Mr Greenspan argued that the bill would be counter-productive because it would make it politically more difficult for China to act.

In an interview Mr Graham said the White House went “bonkers” after an April procedural vote in which an unexpected 67 senators expressed support for the bill, and asked the senators to delay a vote. “There is a good faith on both sides now that might develop into something of substance,” he said.

The debate over the renminbi will be fuelled, in China as well as in the US, by news that the country's foreign exchange reserves increased by more than $100bn in the first six months of this year to $711bn.

China's foreign reserves are on track to break $1,000bn by June next year if it continues to expand at the present rate.

jay567

america does seem to be getting things back into shape. Yet europe is still feeling issues relating to germany and france. This year has even seen talk of the euro itself failing as a currency.

When the euro was launched it was seen as a new currency that would compete with the USD, which im sure in time it will. However the honeymoon period is coming to a close with the euro with the problems related to trying to get several different countries/cultures to agree on fundamentals.

I see the dollar improve over the next yr. But long term it will weaken.

my 2 pence

Victor

I can see it going either way. The American deficit is hurting and a rise in the strength of the Yuan will see the dollar fall.

Flip side is maybe we are coming to the end of the oil cycle and the dollar will rise.