WSOP Betting

PPP-Pit Boss

Here I go trying to redeem myself. I know a few of you were interested so.. until 8pm tonight new WSOP betting is up ;0)

http://www.paddypower.com/bet?action=show_type_by_main_market&category=SPECIALS&ev_class_id=91&id=2868

Hectorjelly

This is all based on the cardplayers stats, including an average stack of 1 million.

Andy Black has .64% of the chips in play so a fair bet for him at this stage would roughly be 156 to 1. The only way 50 to 1 is even remotely fair would be if he was three times better than the average player left. He also shortstacked so will have less opportunities to us his skill.

Tiffany Williamson has 3.4% of the chips in play, so a fair bet for her would be 30 - 1, though from what Davey Devil was telling me last night this should be more like 300 - 1.

I dont know much about sports betting but would those markups be replicated in other sports? Ie would a racehorse whose true odds were probably 4:1 go for 12:1? I doubt it.

Healio

Hectorjelly wrote:

I dont know much about sports betting but would those markups be replicated in other sports? Ie would a racehorse whose true odds were probably 4:1 go for 12:1? I doubt it.

What you have to notice here, is that if a horse wasnt given true odds, the layer (bookie) would find out very quickly as there would be people backing the 4/1 shot at 12/1. Paddy Power bet on many horse races a day, i.e the odds compilers know what they are doing, at the wsop they havent a clue, sure they had odds on that guy who was dead for a few years.

Culchie

Healio wrote:

What you have to notice here, is that if a horse wasnt given true odds, the layer (bookie) would find out very quickly as there would be people backing the 4/1 shot at 12/1. Paddy Power bet on many horse races a day, i.e the odds compilers know what they are doing, at the wsop they havent a clue, sure they had odds on that guy who was dead for a few years.

I was typing out a reply to the yet again skimpy odds, and I said to myself, "what the hell ,leave it, only moaning and bitching again"....and abandoned post.

Can't resist though .....

Healio, your point would have carried more merit a week ago, but PP have been quite clearly advised to the error of their ways last week, and even given a fair enough method of calculating the fair odds.

Fact of matter is they are risk adverse, and don't want to give clued in punters a decent price ... they want mugs....hence the above pricing.

califano

would someone be good enough to paste the prices in as i cant access pp from my cage due to websurfer.

PPP-Pit Boss

To be honest.. And you know me Im as nice as razor wire and twice as sharp (that just came out sorry).. You are basing your theory on stack size.. stack size is dynamic it can be double trebled conquered in the blink of an eye. There are 58 contenders left in the WSOP and at this stage all are fairly even. IF we applied the same theory to horse racing as we did to poker betting we could only do so if we assumed it was possible for horse to improve x 10 after the first furlong..
There is a level (large level) of luck in this competition.. factor that in before making statistical leaps (with all due respect)
But fundamentally I guess the wonderful thing about odds is.. well ya dont have to take em ;0)
Now that is my two cents.. Im off to do more joyous things like setting up your BSOP HU championship page. bbye

PPP-Pit Boss

To win the No-Limit Hold'em Championship
Selection Prices
Andy Black (Irl) to win ($371,000) 50 - 1

Conor Tait (Irl) ($368,000) 50 - 1

Tiffany Williamson (UK) ($1,992,000) 16 - 1

An Irish Winner (Black or Tait) 22 - 1

To Make The Final Table
Other Bets





To Reach the final table (9 Players) in the No-Limit Hold'em Championship
Selection Prices
Andy Black 9 - 2

Conor Tait 9 - 2

Tiffany Williamson 2 - 1

An Irishman to make the final table (Black or Tait) 7 - 4


Match Betting
Other Bets





Highest Finishing Irish Player
Selection Prices
Andy Black 4 - 5

Conor Tait 10 - 11

Hectorjelly

PPP-Pit Boss wrote:

To be honest.. And you know me Im as nice as razor wire and twice as sharp (that just came out sorry).. You are basing your theory on stack size.. stack size is dynamic it can be double trebled conquered in the blink of an eye. There are 58 contenders left in the WSOP and at this stage all are fairly even. IF we applied the same theory to horse racing as we did to poker betting we could only do so if we assumed it was possible for horse to improve x 10 after the first furlong..
There is a level (large level) of luck in this competition.. factor that in before making statistical leaps (with all due respect)
But fundamentally I guess the wonderful thing about odds is.. well ya dont have to take em ;0)
Now that is my two cents.. Im off to do more joyous things like setting up your BSOP HU championship page. bbye

Stack sizes are simply the method of keeping score. Should football bets be priced outrageously because the score line is dynamic?

The fact that luck plays a part has no relevance. If it were a coin flipping contest and someone was leading the field by a wide margin they should still be a favourite, because they have the best chance to win.

Ive made no statistical leaps, if anything the odds I quote are conservative because of the many benefits that a bigstack enjoys. The players are not fairly even, by skill or stack size; but if you do believe that then let me put 10k on Ivey to win at 50 to 1.

careca

Hectorjelly wrote:

The players are not fairly even, by skill or stack size; but if you do believe that then let me put 10k on Ivey to win at 50 to 1.

The man has a point.

califano

Thanks

yeah i think the thing to note here is at least pp bothered their barney to compile prices at this stage of the tournament thats the main thing. who else is out there saying 'oh yeah lets not forget to put up prices on the wsop before it starts back up tonight', no one because they are too busy sorting out the bags forecast at monmore. imagine the looks you'd get if you went into stanley or hackets and asked for latest prices for wsop, yeah thats right the same looks you'd get from pp staff until they found the prices that is

Culchie

rounders123 wrote:

Thanks

yeah i think the thing to note here is at least pp bothered their barney to compile prices at this stage of the tournament thats the main thing. who else is out there saying 'oh yeah lets not forget to put up prices on the wsop before it starts back up tonight', no one because they are too busy sorting out the bags forecast at monmore. imagine the looks you'd get if you went into stanley or hackets and asked for latest prices for wsop, yeah thats right the same looks you'd get from pp staff until they found the prices that is

They'd be doing you a favour if they didn't "bother their barney" with these prices, better the money stays in your pocket.
And Paddy Power's 'Barney' must be pretty asleep or pretty stubborn, beacuase there was a fairly negative reaction to the odds they posted last week as well.

There pleny of fellahs that posted tourney details on this site, and deservedly got poor value pointed out to them.

If PP choose to post their odds on the poker board, then it is also up for critical analysis ...no?

califano

Culchie wrote:

If PP choose to post their odds on the poker board, then it is also up for critical analysis ...no?

ah yeah nobody would disagree with that point you make. its just good to focus on the positive side of things whenever possible though.
did you ever look into the markets where the punter is the bookmaker and vice versa like sporting index and betdaq, betfair and those places?.

PPP-Pit Boss

Why not ring up dial a bet and ask for a price on Phil ivy 10k... we are negotiable and excited about the prospect......

Culchie absolutely! You will never hear me complain of feedback good or bad.

Hectorjelly

PPP-Pit Boss wrote:

Why not ring up dial a bet and ask for a price on Phil ivy 10k... we are negotiable and excited about the prospect......

Culchie absolutely! You will never hear me complain of feedback good or bad.

Talk about high varience, Ill see if any of my rich americans friends want some action.

califano

Hectorjelly wrote:

Talk about high varience, Ill see if any of my rich americans friends want some action.

or maybe youre burmese workers have a touch on it and if they win they win they could afford a phone call home!

PPP-Pit Boss

rounders123 wrote:

or maybe youre burmese workers have a touch on it and if they win they win they could afford a phone call home!

Posting for those interested and running from the flack.....

Andy Black (Irl) to win ($2,090,000) 9 - 1

Conor Tait (Irl) ($1,265,000) 18 - 1

Tiffany Williamson (UK) ($1,125,000) 22 - 1

An Irish Winner (Black or Tait) 11 - 2

Thursday 14th July 2005, 20:00

To Reach the final table (9 Players) in the No-Limit Hold'em Championship
Selection Prices
Andy Black 4 - 6

Conor Tait 6 - 5

Tiffany Williamson 5 - 4

Thursday 14th July 2005, 20:00
Highest Finishing Irish Player
Selection Prices
Andy Black 4 - 9

Conor Tait 13 - 8

Thursday 14th July 2005, 20:00

NickyOD

PPP-Pit Boss wrote:

To Reach the final table (9 Players) in the No-Limit Hold'em Championship

Andy Black (Irl) to win ($2,090,000) 9 - 1
Conor Tait (Irl) ($1,265,000) 18 - 1

Andy Black 4 - 6
Conor Tait 6 - 5
Tiffany Williamson 5 - 4

WTF?

PPP-Pit Boss

NickyOD wrote:

WTF?

I keep coming back for more.. cant help myself... Bring it on. :0) latest betting on wsop
Outright Betting
Other Bets

Andrew Black Finishing Position
Other Bets





Where Will Irish Player Andrew Black Finish?
Selection Prices
1st - 3rd evens

4th - 6th 7 - 4

Worse than 6th 11 - 4



First To Go At Final Table
Other Bets





The World Series Of Poker
Selection Prices Selection Prices
Brad Kondracki 11 - 8 Maike Matusow 20 - 1

Scott Lazar 2 - 1 Andrew Black 25 - 1

Daniel Bergsdorf 4 - 1 Tex Barch 28 - 1

Steve Dannenmann 4 - 1 Aaron Kanter 33 - 1

Joseph Hachem 9 - 2






The World Series Of Poker
Selection Prices Selection Prices
Aaron Kanter ($10,700,000) 4 - 1 Joseph Hachem ($5,420,000) 6 - 1

Tex Barch ($9.330,000) 4 - 1 Daniel Bergsdorf ($5,270,000) 6 - 1

Andrew Black ($8,140,000) 9 - 2 Scott Lazar ($3,370,000) 12 - 1

Mike Matusow ($7,410,000) 5 - 1 Brad Kondracki ($1,180,000) 50 - 1

Steve Dannenmann ($5,460,000) 6 - 1

Bet you all wish you had done less complainin and more bettin at 150/1
forgive me its Friday Im having a silly half hour

califano

Good markets i like it.

Does anyone know if theres anyone under 29 at the final table i have no idea?. I done the 'age of winner' market hoping a few young internet qualifiers would make it. I have a feeling its not looking good.