WSOP Odds

Culchie

After receiving my Skimpy odds on Fintan Gavin, I checked Betfairs odds and compared them to Paddy Power

Too many runners to mention, so I took the top few favourites

Market = To make Final Table

PPP BF

Helmuth 18/1 60/1
Gus Hansen 28/1 42/1
Negreanu 28/1 50/1
Ivey 28/1 40/1
Lederer 33/1 48/1
Devilfish 40/1 80/1
Jesus Ferguson 40/1 55/1
Seidel 50/1 60/1


others of note

Harrington 50/1 55/1
Annie Duke 80/1 130/1
B Boatman 66/1 190/1
P Parkinson 80/1 170/1



The list goes on and on ....

BigDragon

WTF

I've just laid my bets with PP. I didn't even think of checking out BF.

PPP Pit Boss..any comments? PP is known for value so.......?

Rodge

You lads that have accounts on PP and Betfair shouldnt be giving out about such a difference in the odds. Arbitrage looks to be easily achievable using those odds.

Culchie

Rodge wrote:

You lads that have accounts on PP and Betfair shouldnt be giving out about such a difference in the odds. Arbitrage looks to be easily achievable using those odds.

I wouldn't call it giving out ... consider it as Punter Information Services

Rodge

Apologies

Culchie

http://odds.bestbetting.com/specials/poker/world-series-of-poker/to-make-the-final-table

Punter Information Services

Rodge

here's a bet

€100 on Phil Hellmuth NOT to make the final table with PP

Return = 105.50

€4 on Phil Hellmuth to make the final table with Betfair @ 60\1

If he makes it you get 240 - 100 = €140 profit
if he doesnt make it you get €1.50 profit

Now there's a freeroll for ye.

edit: was using the wrong figures, that should be more like it now

Culchie

:eek: Looks like I'm behind but....

Looks like Betfair is the place to go, gonna spread a few quid around.

It would be rude not to. I'll take it from erm..... Bankroll, have to add extra column to spreadsheet called " Arbitage "

PPP-Pit Boss

;0) it's novelty betting for ya! Their odds are a little longer I would be a little more concerned if we were off tilt from a hierarchical perspective...

ZZR1100

dont see a Not to Make option on PP.dont forget Betfair will take 5% commision on winning bets

Krusty_Clown

Yesterday they had a couple of other options, such as two player matchups, age of the winner, winner in group etc..

They seem to be gone today.. Must be this arbitrage thingey..
Bookies don't like certainties..

Culchie

Krusty_Clown wrote:

Yesterday they had a couple of other options, such as two player matchups, age of the winner, winner in group etc..

They seem to be gone today.. Must be this arbitrage thingey..
Bookies don't like certainties..

You can sing that !

Disappointing that 'The Real Deal' couldn't deliver some decent (fair) odds though.

Didn't like the 'novelty bet' excuse myself.....means poor value in English

PPP-Pit Boss

Culchie wrote:

You can sing that !

Disappointing that 'The Real Deal' couldn't deliver some decent (fair) odds though.

Didn't like the 'novelty bet' excuse myself.....means poor value in English

Hi Culchie. I am looking into the reason why group bets etc were taken down. "Novelty" bets are poor value but not to the punter. They are novelty bets. It is not an excuse it is fact. Bookies do not make money out of them as a general rule. In a tournament such as the WSOP it is more than a little difficult to raise odds with so many in the feild. So it is in fact pertinent to use track record as a guide line and afford odds hierarchically.

Culchie

PPP-Pit Boss wrote:

Hi Culchie. I am looking into the reason why group bets etc were taken down. "Novelty" bets are poor value but not to the punter. They are novelty bets. It is not an excuse it is fact. Bookies do not make money out of them as a general rule. In a tournament such as the WSOP it is more than a little difficult to raise odds with so many in the feild. So it is in fact pertinent to use track record as a guide line and afford odds hierarchically.

Baloney.

Under what rationale, hierarchical or otherwise , and track record (lol) can you place Doyle Brunson with his 10 bracelets at 80/1, whilst the likes of Fintan gavin, who I had to request a quote on is 66/1?

In a 6600 field, your odds are very skimpy, by the way so are the other major bookmakers as well.

The odds are very unfavourable compared to the exhanges ...taking your favourite Phil Helmuth as an example to get to final table

€5 Paddypower 18/1 = €95 return ....... €5 Betfair 60/1 = €289.75 return (after commission)

Sorry, but that is poor value.

Sorry if this upsets you, but it is the facts as they present themselves.

califano

Paddy power didnt give crap prices in this event on purpose imo. They gave crap prices because they simply didnt think it through. Sometimes if its not horses or something that they are very familiar with they put up prices(usually very late) based on some 'genius' from their race room that has a bit of cred imo. Sometimes the prices can be ridiculously good for the same reason that they didnt put enough effort into researching an unfamiliar event.
I always think to myself if its not a horse or a dog they are confused .
That said pp are my fav bookies because at least they try speciality bets in more areas than others generally.

Culchie

I didn't say they intended to, but they did, that is my view.

In fairness the other big players aren't up to much either, they probably just mark their prices off each other.

PPP-Pit Boss

Krusty_Clown wrote:

Yesterday they had a couple of other options, such as two player matchups, age of the winner, winner in group etc..

They seem to be gone today.. Must be this arbitrage thingey..
Bookies don't like certainties..

Other betting options for WSOP back up. Was only down as event being retimed.

Hectorjelly

Culchie wrote:

Baloney.

Under what rationale, hierarchical or otherwise , and track record (lol) can you place Doyle Brunson with his 10 bracelets at 80/1, whilst the likes of Fintan gavin, who I had to request a quote on is 66/1?

These odds are so bad its like a bad joke. Assuming 6600 entrants, the chance of random player getting to the final table. is 6600/9 or 733.3 to 1.

PPP-Pit Boss

I am going to stay fairly out of this guys if that is ok. I deal with poker not odds it is not my area of expertise. Sorry not trying to squeeze out of it. My personal belief would be be that with the Massive amount of entrants even previous finalists would never be at such short odds given the size of the field.

califano

No worries PPP-Pit Boss were not holding you to account at all and realise youre in the poker end of things an all.

PPP-Pit Boss

I checked the Fintan Gavin thing out... he is not listed in this event you should have been given an outsider price of 200 - 1 on him.
He is still not listed so if you were given 66 -1 ... well its kinda makie-uppy ;0)

Culchie

rounders123 wrote:

No worries PPP-Pit Boss were not holding you to account at all and realise youre in the poker end of things an all.

but (a) The feedback should be passed on to whoever draws up the odds

(b) The odds should be amended, why ignore the feedback.


Afterall, if the people on this board think their odds are ridiculous, then I'd suggest it is a bad -EV move for Paddy Power isn't it?

We are the early adopters, the pioneers the innovators, the dogs bolix !!

Culchie

PPP-Pit Boss wrote:

I checked the Fintan Gavin thing out... he is not listed in this event you should have been given an outsider price of 200 - 1 on him.
He is still not listed so if you were given 66 -1 ... well its kinda makie-uppy ;0)

Thanks, if he's on 'live' on the site, after all the bitching I've done, I'll put my money where my mouth is

Fintan, you better do it !!


P.S Put KP Nuts up as well !!

PPP-Pit Boss

God you are giving me a hard time today! ;0( Of course I went straight back to the department involved and passed on the feedback.
Regarding the rest however betting ends today so there will not be any further developements.