PlanetRugby.com preview for 2nd Test

Eoin

From this page:

Their prediction:
Prediction: Carter to get the upper hand, and New Zealand to win by 5 points.
sportingodds.com prediction: New Zealand by 15 points.

I think they are being too generous to the Lions, but hopefully I am wrong.

Preview - New Zealand v Lions, II
Something cooking in the Caketin

Quite a week it has been, and not all of it good for the game. The Lions' cavalcade has rolled into Wellington and the circus is ready to continue. On Saturday, finally, we will get 80 minutes of what the tour was originally planned for - rugby.

Take Two: Can the ABs keep the Lions under the cosh?

The stereotype of whingeing poms is difficult to refute, given the quantity of press afforded to everything but the disastrous display of rugby by the Lions last Saturday.

As Graham Henry remarked when denying usage of the motivational tactic of pinning hostile clippings up on the wall, "There would not be enough wall space to put all that crap on anyway, so why bother?"

It has been a pretty forgettable week for the game. Alastair Campbell has applied so much spin to the Brian O'Driscoll 'speargate' affair that he should move on to England's Ashes campaign on his return to Blighty - his wrist action is too good to ignore.

Of the changes needed in the Lions' ranks, we have heard not a great deal. Of the brilliance of the All Blacks in atrocious conditions, almost nothing.

The spin has been wholly concentrated on Tana Umaga, and has frequently neglected the fact that there were in fact two players who made that tackle.

So concentrated has the campaign been on Umaga in fact, that you can't help but wonder if the storm whipped up was an attempt to pressure the All Black captain into falling onto his own sword over the incident.

Whatever the motives, Umaga has stood up to be counted rather than receding into hiding, and could well have done his team a favour in the process.

The only real danger facing the All Blacks ahead of Saturday was complacency, but Umaga's testy press conference on Wednesday and the overwhelming public and media response to the Lions' stream of negativity ought to have put pay to any navel-gazing.

"I don't think there will be any complacency from us," continued Henry, referring to his team's cool build-up this week.

"The opposition have certainly talked this Test match up, which has been helpful."

So at last we can return to the rugby - ignoring the risk that the bad feeling stirred up between the two camps will spill over into violence on the field.

The match promises to be a thriller. Both teams have been chosen for the ability to run with the ball, and the expected conditions are dry and mild, a distant cry from the hail and biting chill of last week's Antarctic storm in Christchurch.

Woodward's Lions selection for the second Test bears out just how wrong he believes he got it for the first. Never before has he made so many changes from one high-profile match to another.

Gone are the ageing Englishmen who deleivered the Webb Ellis trophy a full 20 months ago and nothing since, and into the backs come the handful of cocksure Welsh who ran home a thrilling Grand Slam earlier this year.

The line-out problem has been addressed to a certain extent, although why Donncha O'Callaghan was selected above Simon Shaw is a mystery - as was the omission of the steady-handed Gordon Bulloch, although as one wag pointed out, Steve Thompson rarely failed to hit either of the Irish jumpers during the Six Nations.

The back row has been completely transformed from last week's plodding gargoyls to a slick-handling, mobile, and altogether prettier trio. They will be led from the base of the scrum by the revelatory Ryan Jones, who is following a great tradition of late Lions call-ups who became players of the tournament - a tradition previously maintained by Rob Andrew and Martin Johnson among others.

There are still question marks though. Jason Robinson's inclusion over Geordan Murphy or even Mark Cueto, and Matt Dawson's selection over a cursing Chris Cusiter show that more than anything else, come what may, the legend of 2003 is just too much for Woodward to let go.

The biggest question mark is hanging over the number ten shirt. Gone are the days when a fly-half like Barry John could walk onto a pitch and demand only of his scrum-half "you pass it and I'll catch it!"

It remains to be seen if Jonny Wilkinson can provide the same ignition for the Welsh centres that Stephen Jones does. Wilkinson is an English link in a Welsh chain that stretches from 8 to 13, and given the importance attached to familiarity and forging of unit partnerships in a team these days, it could be the weakest link.

But wherever the weaknesses, the team has - at last - been chosen on grounds of try-scoring form and mobility. Whereas last week the tactic was to 'play our own game', this week ploy appears to be based on a desire to fight fire with fire.

Graham Henry's changes have been purely ornamental. The interchanging of Justin Marshall and Byron Kelleher will barely be noticed, as will Mils Muliaina's exchange for Leon MacDonald.

Rico Gear adds a different kind of finesse on the wing to Doug Howlett, but merely alters the threat from the position without making it any weaker. Greg Somerville, in late for the bitterly unlucky Carl Hayman, adds more mobility than his squatness of frame gives away and provides a fascinating square-up to the equally mobile Gethin Jenkins in the front row.

New recruits aside though, this game will be won or lost by the fly-halves, and not just because they provide the points from the boot. Dan Carter was mesmerising last week, and was every bit as responsible for the Lions defeat as the weather, line-outs, roughness of tackling, cut of grass, mean local fans or whatever else the Lions management team have tried to blame it on.

Carter said when assessing the tour a couple of months ago that he wanted to measure himself against the best, and for him, that meant Jonny Wilkinson.

Assuming the new-model Lions deliver and increases the speed of possession and the frontness of foot, the focus will be on Wilkinson to provide Carter exactly that sort of benchmark. The most threatening talents in both teams lie in the backs. Whoever gets their backs firing will win this game - and if they both do we are in for a real spectacle.

It sounds simple, and a free-running thriller - a celebration of our sport - is just the tonic this tour needs.

Let's hope it will happen, and by Sunday everybody will be talking about the game - something which Alastair Campbell freely admits he knows nothing about. Let's hope that next week the players will be left alone - or better, congratulated for their efforts. That would be easy. Wouldn't it?

Players to watch:

For New Zealand: He is an old head of the game, and this is not the first time he has been victimised in the media, but the spotlight will be firmly on Tana Umaga this weekend as his every move is scrutinised either for possible foul play or weakness under the enormous pressure. Then we will know whether or not the despicable spin campaign has worked.

For the Lions: Nobody has impressed more than Ryan Jones on the tour so far, and his full Test call-up is wholly deserved. He now gets a full eighty minutes in the heat of the second Test to show just how much his mobility and enterprise can add from the base of the scrum.

Head-to-head: Byron Kelleher v Dwayne Peel: The Wilkinson-Carter clash has already been spoken about, and Rico Gear v Shane Williams promises to be a high-speed dance out wide, but Byron Kelleher's match with Dwayne Peel brings together the two quickest-thinking scrum-halves in the world. Both are renowned for not wasting either milliseconds or millimetres when it comes to taking the initiative and sneaking through a gap. Kelleher came on last week and looked to have the measure of Peel physically, so Peel has a point to prove in that area. If he can, another great Welsh number nine will have truly arrived.

Prediction: Carter to get the upper hand, and New Zealand to win by 5 points.
sportingodds.com prediction: New Zealand by 15 points.

Date: Saturday, July 2
Kick-off: 19.10 (07.10 GMT)
Venue: Westpac Stadium, Wellington
Weather: Frosty then fine, northerlies freshening - min 8°C, max 12°C
Referee: Andrew Cole (Australia)
Touch judges: Jonathan Kaplan (South Africa), Stuart Dickinson (Australia)
Television match official: Mark Lawrence (South Africa)
Substitute controller: Paddy O'Brien (New Zealand)

jank

That sums it up alright. The all-blacks have something to prove not the lions. Mr spinning campell has done the lions that favour.

All blacks to win by 6.

youcancallmeal

Kick-off: 19.10 (07.10 GMT)

I though it was 08.10(GMT) for this match?

Eoin

youcancallme>al wrote:

I though it was 08.10(GMT) for this match?

GMT is an hour behind BST, which we are currently in. So, it will be 8:10 fo kick-off. i.e. GMT at time of this post is 13:12, where as BST is 14:12

youcancallmeal

I swear i'm not an idiot

Eoin

youcancallme>al wrote:

I swear i'm not an idiot

I only twigged to that a couple of weeks ago myself, never realised that we weren't on GMT for some parts of the year...

pred racer

although as one wag pointed out, Steve Thompson rarely failed to hit either of the Irish jumpers during the Six Nations.


ROFL!

youcancallmeal

I keep thinking how amazing it would be if the lions actually won but then reality sets in and i know its just not gonna happen.