Can someone explain this hand to me please...

Iago

Taken from the 2+2 forums...

Evaluate if my push was correct. Table image was very agressive since becoming big stack, but I had never shown any of my agressive all in pushes (except winning with QQ earlier to obtain my big stack).

***** Hand History for Game 2279344893 *****
NL Hold'em $50 Buy-in + $5 Entry Fee Trny:13491655 Level:9 Blinds(250/500) - Tuesday, June 28, 22:06:27 EDT 2005
Table Table 12122 (Real Money)
Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: Mystraised ( $4185 )
Seat 4: msnuts3 ( $1700 )
Seat 8: RoyalCrap ( $1375 )
Seat 10: Mulperi ( $2740 )
Trny:13491655 Level:9
Blinds(250/500)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Mystraised [ 5h 3s ]
RoyalCrap folds.
Mulperi folds.
Mystraised is all-In [3935]
msnuts3 is all-In [1200]
** Dealing Flop ** [ Jh, 8s, Td ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ Th ]
** Dealing River ** [ Kc ]


He doesn't say what the caller has just that he was beaten. He went out 4th after going all-in again with A5o and getting beaten by the same caller as the first hand. Now what gets me about this is that a reasonable number of respondents have justified his push here, and he's tried to justify it himself by saying that his folding equity justified the move...and I don't understand that at all.

Firstly I think that the BB is unlikely to fold almost any two cards here, as they are about to commit another 250 chips on the SB in the next hand bringing them down to less than 2*BB's. Secondly, surely as chip leader you don't need to make that move here with 53o?

I'm hoping that Hector, Shortstack or DeV (or any other budding mathematicians) in particular may be able to educate me as to why this would be considered a good move, because I just don't get it...

BigDragon

This is not maths. This is pure and simply an agressive chip leader trying to bully the BB with position after the UTG and Button have passed. The BB is risking his tourney calling here and that's what he is gambling on.

If the others had pushed ahead of him he folds here.

It's simple aggressive short handed play from an aggressive player. Not knowing what the BB had to call is really the problem with the post.

Iago

you see that's what I was thinking as well, but regardless of the aggresion of the chip leader, the BB almost has to call here. In the next hand the other shortstack is likely to push from the BB anyway if he calls, and if he folds the SB then he's in a huge amount of trouble.

From that point of view I think the move was ill judged, as you're almost always going to get a caller, and you'll be way behind. What's got me intrigued about this is the fact that there were quite a few people who thought it was a good move, and I'm wondering whether I'm missing something...

Shortstack

'tis a poor move by the chip leader. It is not necessary to get involved with this hand and even if there is, there are better ways to try and play it. Think about the big blinds odds here. He has to call 1200 to win 1200+1000=2200. He is getting almost 2:1 and because the chipleader is being aggressive he knows he is not neccesarily strong. I would probably call with any 2 here.
If he wanted to play he could have used a stop go. ie: call and move in on the flop. Chances are if the BB has missed the flop he will fold. There is a chance doing this that the BB will move in pre-flop, in which case the chip leader is probably right to call anyway.

Hectorjelly

The reason that the push can be justified is that the BB might well fold because allthough hes getting great odds there is a smaller stack than him who will hopefully go bust soon. If you were the BB and you had 63 or T2 would you call? When you take into account the times that the BB folds, or 53 sucks out, its not such a bad play at all. I would be much happier with the play though if the shortest stack had a lot less chips, or the BB had more.

Hectorjelly

Shortstack wrote:

If he wanted to play he could have used a stop go. ie: call and move in on the flop. Chances are if the BB has missed the flop he will fold. There is a chance doing this that the BB will move in pre-flop, in which case the chip leader is probably right to call anyway.

This definitely is a bad idea, the only reason you can play 53 is the hope of not seeing a showdown, you definitely dont want to engineer a situation in which your calling all in with it.

BigDragon

Iago and Shortstack

The question is why this guy did this. Not whether we agree with his move. I would not move here but wait for the button or CO to bully with a better hand.

Looking at it from his own point of view, he has been the aggressor all the game, he acted fast and the BB is likely to be unsure of the SB's hand. Because of the previous aggression the SB has to be comfotable calling here. We don't know if he has been TAG and has looked like he wants to hang on for a better hand or hope one of the other 2 get knocked out first.

Again, I think the post is misleading and the play is correct in the 'head' of the SB.

If the BB folds then he is still on parity with the next player on the next BB who might not be as patient and lose moving this guy up the money. The SB is using aggression to gamble on these factors to steal chips. He thinks it was the right move for his image and I don't think we have enough info to slate his play here.

I still would fold here. No need wasting chips with a stop'n'go with that hand. The chance of the BB going all-in after you flat call is to high 4-handed, i think.

NickyOD

At a guess...
35o will beat a random hand about 36% of the time.
Its dificult to say that this is an automatic call for the BB because we don't know what kind of player he is but the next player will have 875 left after posting the BB next hand and he will have 950 after posting the SB IF he folds. At a guess the BB will call here 85% of the time with a random hand that beats 35o 66% of the time.

EV = .15(750) + .085*.337(1950) + .085*.663(-1450)

(112.5) + (558.5) + (-817) =-146

So at a guesstimate on average he would lose under a third of a BB every time he makes this move.

Given the fact that the player in the BB next hand will be even shorter and that the shorties will most likely push into the eachother or the player on his right I don't think this is clever at all. In SnGs I keep reminding myself that doubling shorties with trash is a really bad idea.