Ante Post Bet

Morgans

Two out of two so far this year with ante post bets posted here, and doubtless luck will catch up with me, as this is a far more speculative punt.

Alkaased for the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Diamond stakes - at Newbury this year - is currently 20/1. I took 25/1 ew last week with VCbet. I think that regardless of whether he wins or loses, or even takes part, that something should be put on the horse, as he is miles overpriced, and bookies deserve to be punished for making such a mistake.

He looks to be an improving animal, who lost at Epsom due to a canny ride from Fallon on Yeats. Alkaased made up an amount of ground in the straight with a nice turn of foot but with Yeats getting first run on him, he couldnt reel him in. Cumani was somewhat critical of Jimmy Fortune after the race, and hinted that the best horse didnt win the race. Yeats is 5/1 yet Alkaased is 20s. Lots of the better fancied horses may not turn up, Motivator, Bago, and Hurricane RUn will be aimed at the Arc, and even if they do, there are reasons for opposing all three, the 3yo having had a busy preparation.

Alkaased missed York deliberately in preparation for this ( as did Yeats) Azamour and Grey Swallow (despite winning the irish derby) have something to prove over 12f, and to me look beatable. North Light and Ouija Board now both miss the race, Doyen will probably do the same. If Alkaased gets to the 21st of July in tact, he will not be a 20/1 shot for the race, Ladbrokes have him at 14s btw. He could be hte best horse in the field on the day of the race, and represents huge value at the moment.

Thought I'd pass that on.

revo

when are these on? As im only new..

DaBreno

Thats interesting stuff there Morgans. Cheers for passing it on.

thewools

23 Jul 15:00 quite a while alrite!

But as Morgens already said alot of these wont take part!! thats good analysis however as he is overpriced and generaLLY grabs a place (mostly second) or a win!

But alot of the more fancied horses: Hurricane Run, Westener, Shamardal etc would proberly be more fancied but i agree they may not all run so'll will prob throw a few yoyos each way on this bad boy!!

Morgans

Now 6/1 for the race with PP after winning the Gp 1 at Saint Cloud.

fade2black

Just seen this now. Brilliant stuff morgans, win or lose you've done the business with this one. Keep it up!!

masterK

It's looking a nice bet now Morgans, I actually only backed it on Friday at 24/1 on Betfair. I didn't even know that it was running on Sunday until I heard the result on RTE.

It's no mean achievement beating Bago so comprehensively on French soil, only the second time it has happened.

fade2black

Only concern now is that Cumani is saying that he may not enter in the race....

We're seeing the two sides of the ant-post bet here.

Morgans

Yes, Cumani is stating that they may go for the arc, what is interesting is that they are adamant that the horse needs good ground or firmer. Keeping the horse for the arc, invariably run on soft ground on the first weekend in October, instead of the midsummer KG is a bit odd. Hopefully it will come down the right side. I've laid off the stake on betfair allready, but still hoping for a decent pay-day. Come on Luca, you know it makes sense.

Bago is completely overrated. He may well be suited to the arc test, but Cherry Mix, North Light, and Acropolis havent done the arc form any favours so far. Ouija Board did win the Breeders Cup, and may well have been an unlucky loser in paris.

masterK

Alkaased is definitely not going for the king George.

http://www.racingpost.co.uk/news/rp_std_page.sd?psection=racingpost.co.uk&page=latest4

Morgans

Ante post betting claims another victim. At least we did get the value and won his group 1 at 6/1 between the time I placed the bet and now. Shame. I think he was a good thing to have been at least placed.

masterK

It doesn't make sense at all, Cumani actually states that if the ground is too soft he won't run in the Arc. In all likelihood it will be, connections could be left with egg on their faces if Alkaased ends up missing all the major races towards the end of the season because of some bad planning.

Morgans

Alkaased withdrawn from the King george. He was as low as 9/2 with the bookies that kept them in their books. The perils of ante post punting. Gamut, a horse Alkaased hammered earlier in the season is one of the favs for the race now after winning yesterday. It was all coming together nicely, and trying to be as objective as I possibly can, I like MasterK think that the planning chosen by Cumani is illogical. Not saying that he would have won the KG, but we'll never know.

fade2black

While we're bringing up old threads to remind us about following horses....