What do you do?

BigDragon

PokerStars $30 Freezeout

400 runners. Down to last 26 with 40 paid.

You have only ever shown Top 10 starting hands to the table. On the button you are dealt AKs are in 10th position with a healthy stack. Chip leader is on SB and has just doubled up with AA. There are 4 limpers so you want to eliminate the rubbish and raise 1/3 of your stack. The SB goes over the top for everything you have.

Do you fold or call?

NickyOD

BigDragon wrote:

PokerStars $30 Freezeout

400 runners. Down to last 26 with 40 paid.

You have only ever shown Top 10 starting hands to the table. On the button you are dealt AKs are in 10th position with a healthy stack. Chip leader is on SB and has just doubled up with AA. There are 4 limpers so you want to eliminate the rubbish and raise 1/3 of your stack. The SB goes over the top for everything you have.

Do you fold or call?

What position will folding leave you? (How many BBs will you have and when does the next level come in?)
What position will calling and winning leave you? (I presume all the limpers folded)
What's your read on the SB?
What is the next level of payout and how important is it to you?
What shpae are the shortstacks in?
Why is the sky blue?

ollyk1

IF I think the SB is a good player I fold. He knows you're not messing and neither is he - AA in the previous hand doesn't come into it unless it means he now has an absolute monster stack. In fact it makes him more likely not to be messing as he knows he's more likely to get called in general.

If he's a lucky player - then it's a toughie.

Presuming he's a good player I fold unless I want a race with TT, JJ, QQ or maybe a split pot with AKs (although sometimes the flush comes down ).

Did you fancy a race at a reasonable price or was there enough soft chips out there to be hoovered up by you subsequent to folding??

Also payout and your position having folded etc. etc. come into it but going on the evidence and the fact that in your case there is a good chance you can recover why race?



On reading this back I've realised I'm a rock...... :eek:

ionapaul

Was semi-following your progress in this tourney last night (was playing a couple of STTs at the same time) but missed when you went out. As far as I remember you had a good healthy stack and the payout levesl for 26th through 10th were fairly poor. I have a feeling that some of the mathematicians will run the numbers and tell us that, given the range of hands you put the SB on, folding was +$EV. I might have put him on ace-picture card or a low-to-mid pair here and so you're either well ahead or 50/50 - its a 'final table' hand and you really want to come in the top 5 in this tourney to make anything decent. I would have called here, but partly that is because the stakes are comparatively low, might be a different call at the WSOP

Fatboydim

With that kind of raise he's probably holding a small pocket pair and doesn't want the call. With AK you're more than likely facing a coin toss situation. The only hands you'll dominate are AX AJ AQ. Is this player likely to raise all in with that? He's taken the initiative away from you - he's asking you to call for all your chips, even if he's bluffing I think it's a fold.

However it depends on what you want from the game... If the tourney pays the same for 20th -30th with only a slight increase for 10th-19th then you have to ask how likely is it that you will make the final table with the stack you have? If it's a workable stack with 2/3rds of your chips then fold. If it isn't call and hope for the best.

NickyOD

Fatboydim wrote:

With that kind of raise he's probably holding a small pocket pair and doesn't want the call. With AK you're more than likely facing a coin toss situation. The only hands you'll dominate are AX AJ AQ. Is this player likely to raise all in with that? He's taken the initiative away from you - he's asking you to call for all your chips, even if he's bluffing I think it's a fold.

However it depends on what you want from the game... If the tourney pays the same for 20th -30th with only a slight increase for 10th-19th then you have to ask how likely is it that you will make the final table with the stack you have? If it's a workable stack with 2/3rds of your chips then fold. If it isn't call and hope for the best.

There is a hell of a lot to consider here, which is why I LOVE the PS timebank. There is a time to take a coinflip and there is a time to stay away from it. Whether or not this is the time to take one really depends on where folding will leave you. From the looks of it, it would leave you a little less than average so the payout structure should be a major factor in your decision here. Also remember if you fold you will have an aggressive chip leader on your left which is the worst possible position to be in. I would imagine you will get atleast $2.5K for first place in this tourney. Considering winning this hand gives you a chiplead and almost guarantees you a final table finish I am probably calling here. If I lose I will shrug and move on. At the end of the day you are playing for top 3, not to blind into the next payout level.

Culchie

You're damned if you do, and damned if you don't.

You call, lose, and keep going over the hand in your head, driving home or whatever.

You fold, and maybe scrape onto the final table, dodging all-ins every hand lowstacked, no real chance of winning.

I think you've made your own mind up here, 33% of your chips are already in....Drive On !!

Hectorjelly

Stack sizes would help!

This is an interesting hand. Once you have raised 1/3 of your stack, and taking into account the 4 limpers, folding a coin flip is very very bad. Not taking the limpers into account, you have to call 2/3 of your stack in order to win a pot thats 6/3 of your original stack. So your hand has to be good at least 1/3 of the time. When you take the limpers into account this fraction will drop even further.

Aks equity against a hand range as tight as AA - KK, AK is 40%.
If you include QQ is 41%.

Against AA/KK its 23%.

Best case scenario is its some idiot with AA - 99, AK - AQ; then its 51%.

Normally this would be an autocall, but the small blind is showing a huge amount of strength by not only reraising you (who should normally be pot committed at this stage), but by raising those four limpers, the first too of which could both have big pocket pairs.

Im making two assumptions here, firstly losing this pot would hurt the small blind (at least 1/4 of his stack). If it wouldnt then you should call, and secondly that all of those limpers are unusual. If they are limping every hand then again you should call.

Taking those into account, if he is a very good player and has recognised that you are a good/tight player, then perhaps you can narrow his range down to AA/KK and fold. However this would be a huge laydown and against most normal players this would be big mistake, but based on the info you provided its defenseable.

To explain how big a fold this would be, the only circumstance in which you should fold here is if you feel you are up against AA/kk. AKs has an equity of 23% against AA/KK. KK has an equity of 22%. So you are in fact making a slightly bigger fold than KK preflop. Two posters have already advocated a fold and I would be very surprised if they had folded KK preflop to a single reraise in a tournament, because I havent.

BigDragon

A few points

The blinds are big so calling the BB is substantial. Any move has to be all-in or fold. The limpers have similar stacks to me and know they are laying down marginal hands if I raise. The SB has a little more than me so he is committing himself here. He has been loose agressive.

Top 2 share the guts in this tourney so I'm playing for a decent stack on the final table.

The limpers have all been calling stations that bet big on a flop that they have hit so I'm not too worried about them.

The SB has previously pushed on Ax too a big raise behind him and I believe he is playing to build a stack like I am.

Spoiler:

I called and he had AA two hands in a row! I was out and got $77 for 26th out of over 400 so you need to hit top 2 to be in the real money $2.5k and $1.5k. I do not regret calling. Poker.

Culchie

What were your comments in the chat box ?...other than gg of course.

ollyk1

If there were no circumstances in which you would have folded Dave - why not go all-in? Especially since you have the limpers pegged as calling stations.

Also since the blinds are big. How many times the BB was a 1/3rd raise?

Very interesting point about the KK Hector - I'm not a huge fan of AK online. I'm more of a sneaky little limper with AK and then I call based on the player who raises, unless the blinds are massive and in which case I go all-in so I get the five cards rather than having to fold on a bad flop for my AK....

I'm probably very wrong in this method of playing AK - in fact its a certainty I am but I just don't like AK (except for Sunday when it hit KKA on the flop for me - I was all-in preflop). How much money am i losing by this play? I feel I get paid of more when an A or K falls but i don't have the fold equity unless I feel its a good time to bully and in those circumstances the fact that the cards are decent is only a secondary consideration.

This is in relation to tournament play only - cash game I play AK differently.

In a real world tournament my read on the players would have a huge weighting on my decision. (why I prefer real world..... )

BigDragon

Culchie

Just exited program.

Laptop doesn't look the same tho