Final Table Hand

DapperGent

I think I may have fúcked up here. I have no real idea of Kipper36's play but my own table image would be quite tight. Do you make the raise? Having made it would you call for most of the rest of your stack?


[May 27 14:50:26] : Hand Start.
[May 27 14:50:26] : Seat 1 : jeepinfool has $42,770
[May 27 14:50:26] : Seat 3 : SamuraiPie has $42,740
[May 27 14:50:26] : Seat 4 : coolabula has $94,440
[May 27 14:50:26] : Seat 6 : DapperG has $34,520
[May 27 14:50:26] : Seat 7 : Kipper36 has $30,800
[May 27 14:50:26] : Seat 8 : JAYPEELAW has $50,730
[May 27 14:50:26] : DapperG is the dealer.
[May 27 14:50:26] : Kipper36 posted small blind.
[May 27 14:50:26] : JAYPEELAW posted big blind.
[May 27 14:50:26] : Game [138] started with 6 players.
[May 27 14:50:26] : Dealing Hole Cards.
[May 27 14:50:26] : Seat 6 : DapperG has 7c 8c
[May 27 14:50:29] : jeepinfool folded.
[May 27 14:50:34] : SamuraiPie folded.
[May 27 14:50:34] : coolabula folded.
[May 27 14:50:36] : DapperG called 4,000 and raised 8,000
[May 27 14:50:40] : Kipper36 called 10,000 and raised 18,800 and is All-in
[May 27 14:50:43] : Stakes: 2,000/4,000 Current level: 13 Level up in: 1 min. Break in: 6 min. Players : 6
[May 27 14:50:48] : JAYPEELAW folded.

[May 27 14:50:51] : DapperG called 18,800
[May 27 14:50:51] : Showdown!
[May 27 14:50:51] : Seat 6 : DapperG has 7c 8c
[May 27 14:50:53] : Seat 6 : DapperG has 7c 8c
[May 27 14:50:53] : Seat 7 : Kipper36 has Kh Ks
[May 27 14:51:03] : Board cards [7h Td Qs 9d Tc]
[May 27 14:51:03] : Seat 7 : Kipper36 has Kh Ks
[May 27 14:51:03] : Kipper36 has Two Pair: Kings and 10s
[May 27 14:51:03] : Seat 6 : DapperG has 7c 8c
[May 27 14:51:03] : DapperG has Two Pair: 10s and 7s
[May 27 14:51:03] : Kipper36 wins 65,600 with Two Pair: Kings and 10s
[May 27 14:51:03] : Stakes: 2,000/4,000 Current level: 13 Level up in: 1 min. Break in: 5 min. Players : 6
[May 27 14:51:12] : Hand is over.

careca

Personally I would have dropped it after his all in raise. you're gambling really. the best you can hope for is two over cards and even then you're well behind. you would still have had 22,000 left which isn't too bad.

Btw, was it real money

henbane

Hand  1:	  34.8467 %   [  00.35   00.00  ]    { 8c7c }
Hand  2:	  65.1533 %   [  00.65   00.00  ]    { AA-TT, AKs-AJs, KQs-KJs, AKo-AJo, KQo-KJo }

Fold connectors in this situation. This hand range is probably a little tight but he needs to be very liberal to make it better than 60/40. The small raise left you with a harder decision when he pushed. Unless you intended to fold to a push, you should have raised more.

Iago

I'd of folded, you made a play for the blinds and he called your semi-bluff. If you had a tight image on the table then he's showing a lot of strength by pushing here (I Think)

I'd say he has a high pair...maybe QQ and doesn't want to give you the chance to hit your card. Probably puts you on AK-AJs or 88-JJ and looking to take it down against the blinds...throw it away and wait for a better position I think.

Hectorjelly

You guys have to be kidding, 65k pot and you have to call 18k. This is an auto call no matter what cards you hold and what hands your opponent has. If you fold you will be left with 4 big blinds and have to lump it all in with the next playable hand. You are two of the big blind which makes your situation even less tenable.

Your hand has to be good here 27% of the time to make the call profitable.

DapperGent

Thanks Hector!

Would you make the raise?

JuliusFranco

bearing in mind yer mans chip size i would have been slightly more releuctant but i probably would have raised (maybe more) and would have called (grugingly)

if you're going to make a move like that it might as well be a hand like that..beter that than A6os...

Amaru

I wouldn't have raised pre flop, or if that wasn't to your liking, i wouldn't have raised that much. Your bet represents a considerable amount of his stack, so the push all in may have been expected anyway. Suited connectors are meant to be played on the cheap.

Hectorjelly

DapperGent wrote:

Thanks Hector!

Would you make the raise?

With a stack that size I would just push preflop to dissuade idiots with KJ from seeing a flop, but obviously KK wasnt going anywhere.

Hectorjelly

Amaru wrote:

I wouldn't have raised pre flop, or if that wasn't to your liking, i wouldn't have raised that much. Your bet represents a considerable amount of his stack, so the push all in may have been expected anyway. Suited connectors are meant to be played on the cheap.

Dappergent has 8 big blinds left so needs to steal some chips fast, 67s is a better hand for this than A2.

Shortstack

If I was gonna play I would have pushed as HJ says. You have to call as you are pretty much pot committed from your raise. Suited connectors are a deep stacked play.

I disagree with HJ on the call though. This a tournament and the 27% to call figure is fine if you have a big stack, however for nearly all of your chips it is not a good move, especially as you are the button and a few more 'free hands' to see before being big blind again. You have to draw the line between odds and survival at some point and I think 67s is that point. You had a go at stealing and got your hand bitten off.

If you double up with your next move you are back to roughly joint 3rd position.

Amaru

Hectorjelly wrote:

Dappergent has 8 big blinds left so needs to steal some chips fast, 67s is a better hand for this than A2.

He's also on the button, meaning he can wait out a whole round for a hand before he has to make a decision. If he's only playing against one other guy, chances are the winning hand will probably be a pair, so i'd rather push all in with A or K rag than medium suited connectors in this situation.

Hectorjelly

Shortstack wrote:

I disagree with HJ on the call though. This a tournament and the 27% to call figure is fine if you have a big stack, however for nearly all of your chips it is not a good move, especially as you are the button and a few more 'free hands' to see before being big blind again. You have to draw the line between odds and survival at some point and I think 67s is that point. You had a go at stealing and got your hand bitten off.

If you double up with your next move you are back to roughly joint 3rd position.

The only valid reason you can ever have to pass up a + EV move is that taking it might prevent you from taking a more positive EV move later. Now this assumes that you play better than your opponents, your ability to outplay them (usually in most cases this just means playing tighter than them) will hopefully create a better situation for all of your chips. If you play worse than your opponents the chances are that you will find a less positive EV sitaution.

In this case if Dappergent folds he will have 4 big blinds left. When the game gets this shortstacked there is almost no difference between a good player and a bad player. There is no way to outplay someone when you have 4 big blinds because you are so limited in your options. There is no post flop play with 4 big blinds. If he folds here he will have to push A2o if he gets in the next hand, even though he is in early position.

Even if you discount the logic above, lets look at what is likely to happen. First of all If he was to call the previous all in with 67s, he gets to play a 65k pot with an equity of around 35%. This has an expected value of 22,750

Say Dapper folds and gets AQ the very next hand. He pushes and is called by AJ.

He then gets to play a 43,000 chip pot (dappers stack *2 plus the BB), with an equity of 73.9%. This has an expected value of 31,777.

Second best would be an pair vs overcards

He gets to play a 43k pot with an equity of 56%, this has an expected value of 24080. However this is only slightly more than the EV of calling with 67s, and if you were to be on the wrong end of the coin flip (AKo vs QQ) then you would have been better off calling with the 67s.

But perhaps Dapper gets unlucky and he has to fold to his BB. On His BB several ppl go all in and he passes k3. He then has a full round to get a hand, BUT he will have 6000 chips less. To make it easy we will see what happens if he immediatley picks up a hand in the SB.

Say he gets to call with a dominating ace. He then gets to play a 32,000 chip pot (dappers stack *2 plus the BB), with an equity of 73.9%. This has an expected value of 23,648. So this is a slight bit more, but if this hand happens after you pay your sb this figure will be lower than the 67s hand.

Say instead he has an overpair vs overcards

He gets to play a 32k pot with an equity of 56%, this has an expected value of 17920. This is lower already.

So you can see if Dapper finds a big hand in the three hands that he has before he is BB he would of been wise to fold. However, if he has to pay his BB before he gets his next good hand, he would almost certainly been better off calling with 67s, no matter how good a player he or anyone else is.

Hectorjelly

Amaru wrote:

He's also on the button, meaning he can wait out a whole round for a hand before he has to make a decision. If he's only playing against one other guy, chances are the winning hand will probably be a pair, so i'd rather push all in with A or K rag than medium suited connectors in this situation.

This isnt just illogical but its wrong. Why is the winning hand likely to be a pair? Anyway a typical player will call an all in with any pair (AA - 66), and any good ace (Ak - At) or KQ. Against this range 67s has a 37% equity. A2 has a 31% equity. So its better to push on the button given a normal players calling standards with 67s than A2.

Hectorjelly

A2 is a stronger hand than 67s so why does 67s perform better in these simulations? Its because if the all in is called, there is a huge chance of being called by a better ace. In that case we have 1 live card and only around a 25% equity. However 67s is almost never dominated.

If we are against KK then A2 has a 30% equity, 67s has a 22% equity. So A2 is better there by 8%

However if we are up against AK, A2 has an equity of 25%, 67s has an equity of 41%, which is a difference of 16%.

Amaru

When i say "rag", i mean within reason. Probably 7 is the lowest card i'd take. There's no way i'd put my whole stack in jeapordy preflop with A2. And why is the winning hand likely to be a pair? Because the odds say so. One pair is more likely to hit than any other hand, especially in a showdown situation. Even if it was A2 versus 67s, the odds for the aces are still 52/48, and if we're playing my A/7 or better, its between a 65 and 58% favourite, and thats when they're not suited.

I'm playing completely the odds, because at this point i haven't completely got the hang of equity. So if you say its better to play the equity than the odds, i'll believe you.

Hectorjelly

Amaru wrote:

When i say "rag", i mean within reason. Probably 7 is the lowest card i'd take. There's no way i'd put my whole stack in jeapordy preflop with A2.

If you are pushing preflop than there is almost 0 difference between A2 and A7, because A 3 - 9 are unlikey to call you anway.

Amaru wrote:

And why is the winning hand likely to be a pair? Because the odds say so. One pair is more likely to hit than any other hand, especially in a showdown situation. Even if it was A2 versus 67s, the odds for the aces are still 52/48, and if we're playing my A/7 or better, its between a 65 and 58% favourite, and thats when they're not suited.

I'm playing completely the odds, because at this point i haven't completely got the hang of equity. So if you say its better to play the equity than the odds, i'll believe you.

I thought you meant a preflop pair. But anyway the reason 67s is better is because you have two chances to make a pair that beat your opponents cards, rather than only 1 if you hold a dominated ace.

Amaru

But against 2 overcards, aren't you way behind? Even against my A7, he'd be drawing solely to a 6, and if its A8(or better), wouldn't he then be 60/40 dog?

Daithio

I think the mistake you made dappergent was with the original re raise. At that stage of the game hands like suited connectors lose alot of there value; they're nice early on when you hit with a lot of people in the pot but overall they don't have very high win percentages against other hands. Having made the raise though I think I would have called.

Hectorjelly

DapperGent wrote:

[May 27 14:50:43] : Stakes: 2,000/4,000 Current level: 13 Level up in: 1 min.

I was talking to thenutlow about this hand and he noticed this, folding here will leave you with less than 3 Big Blinds. This makes folding even less tenable.