What does he have?

NickyOD

A hand from Last nights $20 NLHE tourney on Full Tilt. 226 entered. Down to 60 and our here "The Diamond" is about 14th. I was about 8th/10th a couple of hands earlier but lost 800 after the player I get involved with here made a huge reraise preflop to 2400 and I folded AK. I was in good shape and didn't need to get involved. That's the only info I have on this player as he's only been at the table for an orbit.

Was it right for me to make a stand here? The big question is what the hell does he have? If I win I will be chip leader. If I fold I will still be in good shape with 27 paying.

Dealer: Hand #97945569
Dealer: djp_ace posts the small blind of 100
Dealer: skip7649 posts the big blind of 200
Dealer: You have been dealt [Qc Qh]
Dealer: the banks 22 folds
Dealer: GBPack folds
Dealer: ilovelayneflack folds
Dealer: maytag54 folds
Dealer: allmet99 folds
Dealer: The Diamond raises to 600
Dealer: djp_ace folds
Dealer: skip7649 has 15 seconds left to act
Dealer: skip7649 calls 400
Dealer: The flop is [8c 5s 4d]
Dealer: skip7649 checks
Dealer: The Diamond bets 1,300
Dealer: skip7649 raises to 4,000
Dealer: The Diamond has 15 seconds left to act
Dealer: The Diamond raises to 6,565, and is all in

careca

I reckon you're ahead. He probably has A8, 99, 1010 or JJ. He has put you off a pot already and thinks he can do so again.

Culchie

either 88 or 67 suited.... his 15 second wait may have pointed to whether to call your raise preflop or not, his reraise after flop suggests you are beat.

Lafortezza

45o for skip7649
If he had 67 for the straight or a set then he'd slow play a bit more, in the knowledge that you have an overpair or AK or something.
He has a better hand than QQ but one that can easily be beaten.

Waylander

My guess is you were ahead and he thought you were just trying ot protect your blinds

Iago

There's 6,600 in the pot and you're being asked for another 2,565?

I've seen players on VC do this with TPTK and even on occasion with MPTK! My guess is that he's on an overpair to the board, JJ or KK. Don't think he has AA or 99 TT. Could be a flopped set, but if so I might have checked or put in a min raise to let you have a cheap card.

I'm going with KK, but I'd of called here even thinking that because I could be wrong

Lafortezza

Iago wrote:

My guess is that he's on an overpair to the board, JJ or KK.
I'm going with KK, but I'd of called here even thinking that because I could be wrong

You think that he wouldn't have reraised preflop with KK or JJ headsup and out of position?

I still think he has rags that hit 2 pair or pair and draw on the flop, his BB was 200, Nicky's raise was to 600 which is 400 more to skip7649 out of a stack of >4500. not too bad to see a flop with live cards.

Marq

I didn't bother reading your post, but from the tagline question alone I reckon he has 9 of clubs, 4 of diamonds.

Hectorjelly

Its hard to know without knowing the player, but that definitely looks like a flop that you missed and so he could be making the check raise with a wide variety of hands; some of which beat you, and some of which you beat.I would probably call as you will see 1 pair hands here enough to make the call profitable.

growler

pocket pair, between 4 and 10's or A10 / AJ . May have hit a set but I'd suspect he'd check this and try to milk you rather than put in the big raise.

I'd imagine you're ahead here.

Imposter

QQ or A4s (suited is very important).

NickyOD

I put him on 78. The big reraise suggested he did not want a call. Most players would have slowplayed this flop with a set or a made straight, so I was pretty sure I was about a 7-3 favourite here.

He had 5-7 soooooted, so I was almost right. He had no backdoor flush draw giving him 9 outs, but only the gutshot guaranteed the hand since I could catch up with 8 outs for a set or a better 2 pair if he hit a 7 or a 5.

Of course he hit his 6 on the turn and boom I'm out and he was now chip leader. I didn't hang around to see where he finished but I was pretty sickened. We were both in very good shape at the time and his move was basically the equivelent of getting it all in on an undercard flush draw. Pretty wreckless, but there you go. Loose players win tournaments. Tight players don't.

Shortstack

Happens at all levels. Tuan Le hit a gutshot when all in at the WPT championship. Cost Paul Maxfield about $1,000,000. Although 2nd place of $1.6million isn't to be sneezed at.

NickyOD

Shortstack wrote:

Happens at all levels. Tuan Le hit a gutshot when all in at the WPT championship. Cost Paul Maxfield about $1,000,000. Although 2nd place of $1.6million isn't to be sneezed at.

http://www.dbpoker.com/pokerbitch.html

Hectorjelly

NickyOD wrote:

Of course he hit his 6 on the turn and boom I'm out and he was now chip leader. I didn't hang around to see where he finished but I was pretty sickened. We were both in very good shape at the time and his move was basically the equivelent of getting it all in on an undercard flush draw. Pretty wreckless, but there you go. Loose players win tournaments. Tight players don't.

You made the call not him, a huge proportion of the time he makes this move you have A hi and fold, and when you dont hes drawing very live. This is a very good play. Smart loose players tend to win tournaments, tight players slip into the money come 10th and then complain for 3 weeks when their AK is beaten by a madmans JTs. Thats not to say that this guy was any good, a lot of bad players make good plays inadvertadly.

One factor that really makes that hand either good or bad, is what his move would be if he did flop a strong hand like a st8 or a set. If you know he would slow play it then it makes calling with an overpair much easier.

NickyOD

Hectorjelly wrote:

You made the call not him, a huge proportion of the time he makes this move you have A hi and fold, and when you dont hes drawing very live. This is a very good play. Smart loose players tend to win tournaments, tight players slip into the money come 10th and then complain for 3 weeks when their AK is beaten by a madmans JTs. Thats not to say that this guy was any good, a lot of bad players make good plays inadvertadly.

One factor that really makes that hand either good or bad, is what his move would be if he did flop a strong hand like a st8 or a set. If you know he would slow play it then it makes calling with an overpair much easier.

He only finished 15th but not knowing how he busted that doesn't really mean anything.

I'd have no problem with his play if it was earlier in the tournament and he was an average or less stack, I made a similar move ealier with JQ on a flop 9T9x when I was about average, but I raised less indicating I wanted a call, and flat called the flop representing a slowplayed 9.

Considering he was already in a very nice chip position and I could bust him this move just isn't clever. Very few players would bet the pot on a missed flop. Of course not betting the flop when you miss makes it very easy to play against you. Against a player I know little about I might bet half the pot on a missed flop to see what he does because I only need to take it down 1 out of 3 times for the move to be profitable. Of course having a predictable betting pattern isn't clever either so you need to mix it up depending on your oponent.

Basically my pot bet screamed big PP, and if he put me on a missed flop there was no need to raise so much. He left himself pot committed as a 7-3 dog against a player who could bust him when he was already one of the tourney chip leaders. I've got no problem with aggressive play early on, but getting yourself pot committed on a weak draw when you're in good shape is just bad tourney play.

Hectorjelly

NickyOD wrote:

Basically my pot bet screamed big PP, and if he put me on a missed flop there was no need to raise so much. He left himself pot committed as a 7-3 dog against a player who could bust him when he was already one of the tourney chip leaders.

The size of his raise is inconsequential, any raise he makes pot committs him.

NickyOD wrote:

I've got no problem with aggressive play early on, but getting yourself pot committed on a weak draw when you're in good shape is just bad tourney play.

No it not. I find the later on you are the more folding equity you have. You only have to fold here a relative small percentage of the time to make it a profitable play. Playing a tight, cautious game isnt the holy grail of poker.

NickyOD

Hectorjelly wrote:

The size of his raise is inconsequential, any raise he makes pot committs him.

You're right, he would have but the size of the raise made it obvious he just wanted to take it down. He'd get more players to fold with a raise to 3000. With the short clock on Full Tilt I was about 2 seconds away from timing out but it was the large raise that made my decision for me.

Hectorjelly wrote:

No it not. I find the later on you are the more folding equity you have. You only have to fold here a relative small percentage of the time to make it a profitable play. Playing a tight, cautious game isnt the holy grail of poker.

We'll have to aggree to disagree on that one. I prefer to play much more aggressive early on in order to put myself in a position to go deep. I get a much better hourly rate if I do that. Rather than sit tight and wait for big hands early I think its much better to get involved in lots of pots and try and hover up the early dead money. Later in the tourney there's no way I'm getting jiggy against players that can bust me. I'd always pick on the shorties.