Hand Taken fron 2+2

AmarilloFats

Alright..What ye think of this hand from 2+2

"Any reason not to move in here? Because for some reason, I didn't.

Party Poker Pot-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) converter

CO ($1268.5)
Hero ($2090.25)
SB ($952)
BB ($1105.5)
UTG ($960)
UTG+1 ($755)
MP1 ($970)
MP2 ($1535.25)
MP3 ($799)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Qs Js. SB posts a blind of $5.
UTG calls $10, 4 folds, CO raises to $45, Hero calls $45, SB (poster) calls $40, 1 fold, UTG calls $35.

Flop: ($190) A, T, 8 (4 players)
SB bets $125, UTG folds, CO raises to $562, Hero folds, SB calls $345.

Turn: ($1222) 2 (2 players)

River: ($1222) 5 (2 players)

Final Pot: $1222 "

Lafortezza

I don't get it? QsJs on an A T 8 flop, you have a double gutter, equivalent to an openended straight draw. On the flop the SB bets 2/3 of the pot, the CO raises the pot, its an obvious fold.

What am I missing?

AmarilloFats

Shiite sorry..

Read: Flop As Ts 8c

Giving you a double gutter and flush draw..

Sorry

Lafortezza

No problem, one more question, what's the story with there being no more betting after the flop, if the CO and SB were all-in on the flop then there should be more than $2200 in the pot, but there's no betting on turn or river?

AmarilloFats

Stop badgering the witness Lafortezza!

The post was titled, "QJs easy all in?"
And the question is - what should hero do on that flop?
Most posters thought that is was an easy all-in and the hero made a mistake in folding!!
What happened on turn and river is not important.

If I have omitted anything..Original

karlh

is there a more obvious all in than this? i'd probably put my hip out getting them in the middle!

i aint no crazy maths type person but havent you got 16 outs? (~70% chance of hitting?)

if you are willing to take the chance that nobody is on the K-high flush draw it's a no brainer!?

(saying that, i wouldn't call a raise with QJs in the first place...looking for trouble IMO)

DeVore

he has
3 non spade kings
3 non spade nines
9 spades
by my reckoning? 15 outs or about that. Now that seems like he's well ahead on his draw odds but he has to wonder what he's facing.... I wouldnt fold it, no way, its a powerful draw but I cant really thjnk of two hands they could be on where he is favourite to win it. Then again, I cant think of two hands where he is much worse then 40% to win.
Bad fold all the same.

DeV.

AmarilloFats

You'd have to put CO on AA or AK!! Wouldn't you?I think I would fold in this situation!!If you were closing the betting, but the SB may still go all in. Anyone else go with folding.?? Especially as if a king high flush draw is out there your fecked....And on the levels I play at(.50/1) that is a possibility.

If Co has AxKs and SB has set then

pokenum -h qs js - 8d 8h - ah ks -- as ts 8c
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing As Ts 8c
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qs Js 343 37.98 560 62.02 0 0.00 0.380
8d 8h 511 56.59 392 43.41 0 0.00 0.566
Ks Ah 49 5.43 854 94.57 0 0.00 0.054

If CO has AA and SB has 2 pair then
pokenum -h qs js - ks 8h - ah ad -- as ts 8c
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing As Ts 8c
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qs Js 343 37.98 560 62.02 0 0.00 0.380
Ks 8h 31 3.43 872 96.57 0 0.00 0.034
Ad Ah 529 58.58 374 41.42 0 0.00 0.586

If SB has the king high flush draw(unlikely) and CO AA then
pokenum -h qs js - ks 9s - ah ad -- as ts 8c
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing As Ts 8c
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qs Js 153 16.94 750 83.06 0 0.00 0.169
Ks 9s 204 22.59 699 77.41 0 0.00 0.226
Ad Ah 546 60.47 357 39.53 0 0.00 0.605

BrendanB

15 outs is only a little over 50% (this is the problem with the 'double your outs and divide by 45 technique'), and other people can have outs too. Thinking Omaha on this says you have 7 nut outs (4xK and 3x9) and about 30 safe cards on the other card (if you make your straight).

Hectorjelly

You absolutely cannot fold this bar impossibly deep stacks. If you dont like putting a lot of money in on a draw dont call raises with JQs.

AmarilloFats

Howya Hector..
Why is this considered such a strong hand...
Against TPTK it is a 40% dog.
I would rarely put my entire stack in with "merely" TPTK....So why this draw..
And it wont always be good when u make your hand
And 2pair and trips or naked As have re-draws!!!!???


pokenum -h qs js - ah kd / as ts 8c
Holdem Hi: 1221759 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qs Js 485346 39.73 730638 59.80 5775 0.47 0.400
Kd Ah 730638 59.80 485346 39.73 5775 0.47 0.600

Hectorjelly

You are a favourite over AK:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=812263

pokenum -h qs js - ah kd -- as ts 8c
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing As Ts 8c
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qs Js 522 52.73 468 47.27 0 0.00 0.527
Kd Ah 468 47.27 522 52.73 0 0.00 0.473

You are a tiny favourite over AT: (two pair(

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=814439
pokenum -h qs js - ah td -- as ts 8c
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing As Ts 8c
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qs Js 503 50.81 487 49.19 0 0.00 0.508
Td Ah 487 49.19 503 50.81 0 0.00 0.492

And you arent far off a set:
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=814440
pokenum -h qs js - th td -- as ts 8c
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing As Ts 8c
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qs Js 408 41.21 582 58.79 0 0.00 0.412
Td Th 582 58.79 408 41.21 0 0.00 0.588

Because of all the dead money in the pot you would still call even if you knew your opponent had a set.

To win the hand you are going to have to hit one of your outs, so you would actually prefer if the small blind came along for the ride too. If the small blind is involved you only need an equity of over 33% to make it a profitable call, and whilst there is one combination of hands in which your equity is below this, there are many more in which your equity is way higher.

The other reason you should be pushing here is that it gives cover for the time that you push on the flop with a set.