Future Trends in Computing

Cork

Will the PC as we know it change in the coming years?

Will we be accessing the net using 3g mobile devices?

Will the computer become intergrated with the TV?

Or will we still be using the same type of computers?

I really don't know myself. What are the current trends?

cregser

The current trend is a move away from very fast multi-functional processors and towards chips that can carry out certain functions very efficiently (like Sony's Cell chip).

However, I think the most cutting edge PCs will roughly stay the same. That is a big case with a seperate motherboard, cpu, memory and gpu with cooling attached. The question is will people continue buying the latest technology? It evolves at such a rapid pace that software rarely gets time to aclimatise.

Say if technology just stopped evolving now, I don't we would notice it for a few years. For example games consoles only evolve every 5 years. Over the 5 years, games developers squeeze more and more out of the consoles (with very efficient code). But the rest of the industry doesn't work like that.

It all depends on the demands of near future software and usefulness of the new trend of feature packed but less multi-purpose chips. The extra features (such as dedicated DSP features) make them seem very fast.

cregser

BTW, if the new bread of chips are initially successful, then we will see them everywhere. They have already been in mobile phones for years now.

Cork

cregser wrote:

BTW, if the new bread of chips are initially successful, then we will see them everywhere. They have already been in mobile phones for years now.

Do you think people will be assessing the web thru their pcs?

Ciaran500

I think home entertainment is going to start becoming more and more centered around a PC like box that does everything.(tuner, PVR, Music, DVD and PC capabilities) The current hardware is more than powerful enough for this, we just need the prices to drop and for some big company to package it in an easy to use box.

CuLT

Mmm, can't wait for a Cell chip PC.

I'll probably have to learn to use Linux properly to make any use out of it for about a decade though

Winters

In thoery they could stick a cell chip on a PCI-X card and you could run a PS3 through your existing computer.

Sounds awesome.

cregser

Nah, it looks like the Cell chip will be redesigned for everything they make it for. I mean the PS3 will have it's own Cell chip and other devices would have their own specific Cell design. So obviously the PS3 wouldn't be available to Joe Public.

Do you think people will be assessing the web thru their pcs?

I can access HTML from my phone. If it didn't cost €2 to load a single page I'd be using that instead of a PC. You don't need a big PC to access the web. I actually have a program running now to make my processor work at half speed so as not to waste power.

How people access the web all depends on telecommunications infastructure - it's **** in Ireland. If you're interested, have a look at Japan and see what they're doing (I don't know). 3G started off there.

Ciaran500 wrote:

I think home entertainment is going to start becoming more and more centered around a PC like box that does everything.(tuner, PVR, Music, DVD and PC capabilities) The current hardware is more than powerful enough for this, we just need the prices to drop and for some big company to package it in an easy to use box.

You're right, that is possible now and probably all that's possible now. But it looks like everything is moving towards having loads of small networked devices in the home that work with each other (rather than relying on one PC for everything). That's the idea of the Cell chip anyway, because other companies are also coming up with their own Cell chips.

OfflerCrocGod

CuLT wrote:

Mmm, can't wait for a Cell chip PC.

I'll probably have to learn to use Linux properly to make any use out of it for about a decade though

Unlikely that they are ever going to be made, even if they make them they won't be very useful or popular. It can't do OOE so it wont be as good as a run of the mill A64 cpu when it comes to every day processing. Honestly don't fall for the hype.

MickFarr

The way I see it going is you won't be needing to upgrade your PC much in the future you will just need to have a super fast broadband line.

You subscribe to a service where you can select the applications you want to use, any games you want to play and any films you want to watch!

Now you wouldn't need a state of the art graphics card to play any games or a big hard drive to install all those applications or movies as the service you subscribe to will do all the processing for you and just stream the images to your PC. So you can use an old AMD 1800XP to play Doom10 and Half life 6 just make sure you have a 100MB broadband connection!

cregser

Uh-huh. And the ultimate aim is to use the super-fast broadband connection to share the computing amongst other computers. Like a real-time SETI@home. Becuase you only really stress you PC for 5% of the time (made up statistic).

ressem

I prefer the boring amalgamation of all the PR we jeer at every day.

You get a local appliance, UWB wireless for local stuff, hard drive, processor + broadband connection through high speed radio, satellite or fiber. Stuff it in the attic/cabinet.

Starting software, in static ram, on the machine is just an advanced form of BIOS + drivers + firewall + mini-steam type client + history of programs owned/used.

Installing software involves scanning a barcode/entering tinyurl from a menu, entering payment details and letting computer download the critical core as a cache or run remotely if the program is light enough.

Peripherals like LCD monitor (or DVI connector) + small cache/dsp + UWB wireless card. I think that tablet PC's are just too overpowered. Devices receiving mains power become the local network access point.

IPv6 multicast streams become used for broadcasting TV/radio. There will still be seperate TV and monitors. Can use attic box as a tivo but CPRM/DRM will be well in force, limiting recording and playback. Though cracked streams will still be available, sentence for being caught in the US will be the death penalty due to the ("Movie Pirates kill Bambi" legal precedent).


CD/DVD/Blueray, even the long promised holographic memory cubes fairly redundant due to the streamable nature of video/audio content + ipV6 multicasting.

Internet subscription includes 50 gigs+ of space on a cut down application service provider.

Internet/phone mail service expanded to look like internet Communication package + my documents, as corporate users treat Outlook when they don't have quotas. Tied-in SIP/IAX type phone service so phone calls are just more entries in sent items / inbox.
Mobile, DECT, POTS ties into this.

We won't have networked timers and screens built into fridges/curtains by default, but available for the geeks if we really want it (as it is now in cumbersome forms ) because "cheapest wins".

More thorough and integrated use of blacklist/whitelist as a result, able to cover most mobile/internet comms.

Sorry nothing new to see here.



Cell stuff, can't see much advantage for the home user here. Not much more than another dsp for improving physics, video, audio and animation unless you can afford a rack of them, or need to buy cpu time. Which won't be purchased from single Celled home users, unless you count trading folding@home time for a neat screensaver.

btw cregser, €2 per html page? Might want to try HCSCD dialup connections instead. 2K/sec @ 15c/min is almost bearable.

po0k

Fast, cheap FPGAs are going to have a big impact, both on the consumer and development end. ASICs are being relegated more and more to high-volume deployments where the speed requirement is critical enough to warrent the extra development expense.

Given sufficient logic blocks in a FPGA device in say a phone you can rebuild the guts of the hardware by passing in a bitstream.
It is/will be as easy as a firmware upgrade to change the hardware functionality in your phone.

Khannie

SyxPak wrote:

Fast, cheap FPGAs are going to have a big impact, both on the consumer and development end.

2nd that. WTF is an FPGA? FPGA's are reprogrammable chips. Reckon they're gonna take over from the standard chips you see in devices now once they hit a certain price / performance point.

gamer

i think we,ll be acessing the net thru mobiles with wifi wimax capability when on the move if the government gives out licenses at a reasonable price ,i think 3g is underpowered badly designed too slow short on bandwidth per user too expensive for user, they paid billions for licenses and too build a fast network wud cost more billions,maybe in 4 years we,ll have 4meg broadband connections thru phone or wireless antenna,s.3g is a dead end ,it may be useful for executives who use blackberry or small niche markets or techies, but for the public its a ripoff.the telcos are just desparately trying to get thier money back on thier investment.look at thre register site ,it says the 3g market could be destroyed by future deployment of fast wifi wimax networks that can be acessed by mobile phones or wireless devices.

Ciaran500

Having 4mb lines in 4 years would be a disgrace that unfortunatly I can see happeing if Eircom are left with a monopoly on telecoms in Ireland.

CuLT

Well, we'll have 2MB lines in 2 months so I doubt it'll be too much of a jump to 4+.

Ciaran500

Hopefully, if Eircom don't try and kick up a stink to try and delay LLU.

Cake Fiend

SyxPak wrote:

you can rebuild the guts of the hardware by passing in a bitstream.
It is/will be as easy as a firmware upgrade to change the hardware functionality in your phone.

I'm having a lovely vision of the viruses of the future...

Rew

Its all about Location, Context and Ubiquitous Computing. Location is a part of Context so you can roll them up together. Technology will change its self to suit where you are and what your doing. Mobility will be easier, high bandwith conecections available everywhere with services adapting to changing bandwith (eg video re-encoding on the fly). IPv6 will hopefully have been rolled out. Loads of networked devices from phones to lamps to your fridge.

Rew

Sico wrote:

I'm having a lovely vision of the viruses of the future...

Yeah there is a huge potential for real world attacks at the moment due to alot of wireless devices being softmodems so they can be reconfigured in software. Imagine a irus that reconfigured your wireless card to jam GSM or GPS or the cops

Khannie

CuLT wrote:

Well, we'll have 2MB lines in 2 months...

Is this for sure? You talking about consumer DSL?

Have any linkage?

I'd sell my soul to, well, anyone, for a 2Mb line.

Any change in upload speed coming?

Rew

Khannie wrote:

Is this for sure? You talking about consumer DSL?

Have any linkage?

I'd sell my soul to, well, anyone, for a 2Mb line.

Any change in upload speed coming?

Smart Telecomcdeal that everyone is raving about:

http://www.smarttelecom.ie/index.htm

You might want to trhow an eye in to the broadband fourm as well. Loads of Q&A going on there