Cold perhaps wintry weather over the weekend.

DapperGent

Some text from Met Éireann's current outlook:

The outlook is for a very cold spell of weather over the weekend and for Monday as well with severe night frosts returning and the possibility of some heavy, wintry showers.

ninebeanrows

Its looking good from some snow in the East from late
Saturday with a feed of snow showers for about
24 hours and possibly something more prolonged.

We'll get one up on Britain during this cold spell thats for sure
and for a change the east will get its turn

With a wind off the Irish sea there will be showers allright.

Its touch and go temperaturewise as to whether there will be snow in them though in th East .
Temps arent going below 2c during daytime hours for instance.

High ground probably but on low ground beside the sea-decidedly sleety I'd say.
If they are very heavy that would increase the chance of drier snow to lower levels.

Snow isnt a given at lower levels in Dublin, its only a probable possibility-thats why wintry showers is a better description of whats on offer.

Danno

Hmmm, I think that Sunday AM is proving very interesting. The Irish Sea is warm enough to whip up showers.

Danno

Danno wrote:

Hmmm, I think that Sunday AM is proving very interesting. The Irish Sea is warm enough to whip up showers.

Unfortunately I think its going to be too warm.

Just seen the BBC/UKMO lunchtime forecast and thay have temps in the East and in NI at 5-6 c

Thats borderline for sleet even on higher ground.

So boring possibly sleety cold showers and icy Rain seems to be whats in store.

Supercell

Sunday looks interesting , the 18z ensembles have a suprising divergance for something so relatively close in time.
Some scenarios go for rain showers, others sleet or snow..and others dry and sunny.
Clearly a lot of uncertainty as to the weekends developments, given the patterns of the last few winters i suppose rain or sleety rain is the most likely outcome (rain on sat if any precip) in Dublin with a very slim chance..personally would put it around the 10% mark or lower or any settling snow (would be very small and short lived amounts) at sea leval Dublin even inland in favoured locations like Tallaght, Leixlip etc ..coastal Dublin has pretty much 0% chance of settling snow ..and any precip most likely is going to be very wet snow or sleet (rain more likely)
Lets get global warming underway and delsalinate the north atlantic i say

LFCFan

well, according to the Beeb tonight, there's no chance of snow! So much for you weather boffins and your way too early predictions. That's the last time I listen to and believe anything that comes out of this forum or weathercheck.net. I've come to realise that weather 'forcasts' should only be told 24 hours in advance. 3, 5, 10, 15 day forcasts suck! Please quit with your ramping 2 weeks before time!!!!!!!

Supercell

LFCFan wrote:

well, according to the Beeb tonight, there's no chance of snow! So much for you weather boffins and your way too early predictions. That's the last time I listen to and believe anything that comes out of this forum or weathercheck.net. I've come to realise that weather 'forcasts' should only be told 24 hours in advance. 3, 5, 10, 15 day forcasts suck! Please quit with your ramping 2 weeks before time!!!!!!!

Lol ..in future all just forcast sleet at best..the 24hour interloper will be certified to see posts here that tell him its on the way!!

Supercell

Sorry earthman ..i'll crawl back into the hole now

DapperGent

LFCFan wrote:

I've come to realise that weather 'forcasts' should only be told 24 hours in advance. 3, 5, 10, 15 day forcasts suck!

3 days ahead is usually grand. 5 day forecasts need to be and generally are an outlook rather than containing nailed down specifics.

ninebeanrows

hi all, what a week
We've seen the highest chance of an Easterly Freeze
in a long time come to nothing more than a cool weekend

I tells you those who think im a ramping fool, no one could
of predicted how this would turn so bad. Not only
are we not even having even a decent cold snap this weekend
but our winter looks destined for the dustbin!

February looks like it could be a record breakingly mild month
witht he CET already a ridiculus 3c above the average.

This weekend will give us some repite with some frost
and wintry showers. Its always better forecasting
reservedly as usually if the people who forecast reservedly
get it wrong they'll always have a get out clause.
The term wintry showers is can be termed by for cold rain
it would seem but if snow falls they'll be right too.

I try and provide the behind the scenes approach to weather
forecasting, what really is going on and i nevere intend
to stick on the fence to save by behind

DRankin

Thats the last time I am going to believe weatherchek.net or this forum. What a load OF CRAP.

Silly child. Edited for insults. - DapperGent

ninebeanrows

D Rankin i really think you should sometimes think before you post,
i have professed my deepest apology to you and all those who
the weather models tricked. I broke the news about this on Wednesday
on the site so delayed reactions. If you think i just made
this up on some baseless dream then your wrong, This cold
spell looked nearly certain earlier this week before crumpling
into nothing, i can only prove myself in the future, so dont
believe a word i say and go keep up to date on the 3 day
forecast that other organizations provide.
What i provide is a different type of forecast, a chance forecast,
but one that offers much more excitement, and 60% of the time
accurately forecasts 8-10 days in advance a weather pattern.

Love it or hate but dont post bad mannered tripe on this forum

DapperGent

I'm going to have to leave DRankin's post there so we can see the reason for Weathercheck's response. He's banned though, haven't decided for how long.

Mothman

Is tomorrow (sunday) going to be similar to today here in the east?

Will be on Sugarloaf in morning and I'm hoping it'll be sunny again.

Certainly seems as if it will be sunny with light breeze.

Is there still a risk of precipitaion from the east later in day?

ninebeanrows

Might be a lttle later in the afternoon but
should be generally dry

ninebeanrows

Might be a few showers in around 3-4 hours though may give
a little dusting on the mountains of Dublin

Mothman

Weathercheck wrote:

Might be a lttle later in the afternoon but
should be generally dry

I have a smile on my face, but you've covered your ass by saying the following.

Weathercheck wrote:

Might be a few showers in around 3-4 hours though may give
a little dusting on the mountains of Dublin

Becausing it is now raining.


You're getting good at this Met Talk

Mothman

Mothman wrote:

I have a smile on my face, but you've covered your ass by saying the following.




Becausing it is now raining.


You're getting good at this Met Talk

There is a scattering of showers over Irish sea and a couple of strong echoes off the Kerry coast indicating heavy rain.

billy the squid

[ot] well Dranklin proved his worth by getting banned from the whole site so I seeno need for weather check to apologise to him for getting a forcast wrong ...[/ot]

...which he didnt because it is bloody freezing here. we didnt get any wintery showers but iwe dont get snow very often anyway

and you were right on two previous occasions with regard to snow both on christmas day and again in january weathercheck so I wouldnt worry about comments like that.

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote:

Might be a lttle later in the afternoon but
should be generally dry

Heh theres been heavy rain showers since first light as Mothman will testify to

Not a bit of sleetyness in them that I could see and the hills are clear of snow. It might be falling on the top of lugnaquilla though,I cant see that at the moment as its shrouded in cloud.

ninebeanrows

Yep shocking really raining at 2.8c here :rolleyes:

Dropping like a stone is it then?

Expect temps to rise during the day folks.

Mothman

Mothman wrote:

You're getting good at this Met Talk

Or looking at the radar

highdef

Hey Weathercheck, did you get that hail shower a little after 10am this morning (I'm less than 2 miles from you)! It absolutely belted it down here but slightly larger than pea sized hail for about 5 minutes. Everything was white like it had snowed. The hail actually woke me up from a very dep sleep, it was that loud. Strangely enough when looking out my bedroom window (which faces east-northeast), the clouds directly above appeared quite dark but towards the north and northeast (where you are), the cloud was very broken. The hail shower appeared to be developing as it was passing over and was travelling very slowly. Also, it has been raining or hailing here in Baldoyle all day, only finally stopping a little before 9pm this evening. Was the reason for this similar to that famous 36 hours of thunderstorms in October 2003? Cold onshore wind and relatively warm sea. I reckon that the showers were not so intense as the sea is not so warm at this time of year.
Oh one more thing, I have a video around an hour long of a fantastic thunderstorm that came up the Irish sea coast a few years ago. Can't remember the year - it may have been 1997 (actually not too sure of the year at all, to tell you the truth) and I think it was in August, possibly September. It arrived before midnight and lasted quite a while. It certainly would have passed over Weathercheck's house. It includes one frame of video where a bolt of lightning is seen less than 30 feet from the camera. Let me know if you would be interested in seeing this or PM me about it. I may transfer it to DVD soon.

ntl Technical

ntl Technical wrote:

Was the reason for this similar to that famous 36 hours of thunderstorms in October 2003? Cold onshore wind and relatively warm sea. I reckon that the showers were not so intense as the sea is not so warm at this time of year.

Yes very similar-thunder was reported with this too though it was much too warm for snow except mostly on the highest ground.
Hail is common with thunderstorms/heavy showers.
You will see someone reported seeing a funnel cloud also.

Thread closing now.