gold cup/whats your fancy ?

fr wishy washy

best mate at 3/1-7/2 appeals right now.
don't fancy beef or salmon at about 6/1.

could we have a suprise outsider this year as although i mentioned best mate he definitely appears vunerable this year

Healio

That 6/1 on the beef is very appealing, i remember him staying on well up the hill for third last year, i reckon he could take it this year. Dont like what ive seen of Matey so far, and as such find him difficult to back. Kicking king is one which i have lumped on since last august mad prices on betfair around august last year, i will be routing for him in anyways. I hope Beef or Kicking King take it.

fade2black

The Gold cup for me has always been a race to watch and not have a bet...dunno why....but it's definitely not a race for ante-post betters though, in my opinion. The most important thing with Cheltenham is to find a horse with course form. Best Mate has that and I wouldn't put it past him winning again. People like to pick holes in successful horses and let's face it from the moment he won last year he was trained to win it again this year. It would be nice to see beef or kicking king go close...also keep an eye on Our Vic in this one...he has a race before Cheltenham I think and he's a huge price.

Crumbs

I'd also love to see Beef of KK win it but I'm not going to drive myself mad trying to seperate them and Best Mate (not to mention Kingscliff or the very unexposed Strong Flow and Iris's Gift).

I doubt Our Vic will run in the Gold Cup - don't think he'd last 3m2.5f around Cheltenham against that lot - more likely to go for the new 2m4f race.

But as fade2black said, course form is important. That's why I think Sir Rembrant is a huge price. He was only half a length away from winning it last year and 33/1 is way too generous. If there's a little bit of juice in the ground, he'll be in with a shout.

john_g83

would fancy best mate over beef, big time. Think the last time was a one off. I have a sneaking suspicion that kingscliff could pull it off.

Redlancer

For me Iris's Gift is where the real ante-post value is for the Gold Cup.They say he is a natural over fences and he will definitely stay the trip only worry is sickness or injury.If Iris's Gift is in conntention with two to jump I will have no doubt he will win.

Super Horse another who could go well is Grey Abbey as his jumping is near prefection

allin-king

will iris gift not be running in stayers hurdle?

If it is running in the gold cup could be worth an e/w punt

fade2black

Has Iris's gift ever jumped a fence before?? This is a surprise entrant in the Gold Cup for me...who knows

allin-king

i know thats what im saying, he hasn't jumped a fence before but he must haev good ability otherwise they wouldn't enter him in the gold cup, there is no question he would stay the trip but i think they will run him against baracouda again

fade2black

True enough.....will definitely be interesting

Crumbs

Iris's Gift hasn't been entered for the Stayers Hurdle. If he runs at Cheltenham, it'll be in the Gold Cup and he would definitely have a big chance. We know how classy he is and we know he handles the track and the trip. It's only a matter of jumping around without mistakes and as has already been said, his connections say he's a natural over fences.

It's possible that he might go there without a run with the way things are at Jonjo's stable at the moment. It would be amazing for a horse to win the Gold Cup on it's fencing debut. I doubt it's been done before. Anyone confirm?

fr wishy washy

Crumbs wrote:

Iris's Gift hasn't been entered for the Stayers Hurdle. If he runs at Cheltenham, it'll be in the Gold Cup and he would definitely have a big chance. We know how classy he is and we know he handles the track and the trip. It's only a matter of jumping around without mistakes and as has already been said, his connections say he's a natural over fences.

It's possible that he might go there without a run with the way things are at Jonjo's stable at the moment. It would be amazing for a horse to win the Gold Cup on it's fencing debut. I doubt it's been done before. Anyone confirm?

i think he had only one run over hurdles before he beat baracouda last year so he does'nt need much prep but i would be concerned about jj oneils stable atm.

d'ont think anyone ever won the gold cup on their debut though imperial call had very few races over fences before he won it

evillive

fade2black wrote:

...also keep an eye on Our Vic in this one...he has a race before Cheltenham I think and he's a huge price.

david johnson has said that Celestial Gold is his best shot for the gold cup, so beware of backing Our Vic

iris's gift even with a run will have to go down along with the rest of the wonder novices in recent years - can't have a chance

beef or salmon's speed between fences is awesome as he showed from the last last year but his jumping has not improved in the last year all that much

best mate's preparation seems to be going to plan and is perhaps the only horse without a serious question mark over his head at this stage - so if i were a betting man he'd be my tip at the moment

Redlancer

Iris's Gift came second to Baracouda in his novice season as a hurdler and I have no doubt he will give any of theese horses in the Gold Cup a run for there money.Best Mate will be defeated this year he should have been last year.

If Beef or Salmons preperation had not been affected last year he would have won.The fact Sir Remberant nearly won the Gold Cup to me shows what a poor event it was.Iris's Gift is a tough horse and despite never jumping a fence in public he cannot be ruled out.Also he is only entered for the Gold Cup and his owner says he will win

fr wishy washy

Redlancer wrote:

.The fact Sir Remberant nearly won the Gold Cup to me shows what a poor event it was.

in fairness i think sir rem ran the race of his life that day(he has'nt been up to anything since) and best mate got badly baulked on the turn in by mr carberry.

Morgans

The badly baulked thing was completely overplayed by a media who had expected a stroll in the park. What did the horse lose. Absolute maximum 2l, and thats being generous.

chump

definetely not BoS

fr wishy washy

chump wrote:

definetely not BoS

the problem with him is/was his price. he was about 6/1 which in no way represented his chance.

he has an outside chance of winning and should be at least 12/1

masterK

I am starting to come around to thinking that Grey Abbey could cause a bit of a surprise, the horse just keeps finding more whenever he is challenged for the lead. He is a bit like Moscow Flyer in that he only just does enough.

He will set a decent pace if he runs in the Gold Cup and will be very hard to pass. He is also entered in the Grand National but has been allocated top weight in that so I think we may see him turn up at Cheltenham.

Of the others Kingscliff is the one I would be most interested in.

fade2black

Iris's gift's owner Robert Lester thinks he'll win the gold cup. He says he's not a betting man but a lot of his shrewd friends have got on at 40 and 50-1.....My question to everyone here is do we get on now?....or do we wait and see how he gets on on Saturday in a grade one chase against the likes of Ollie Magern, Forrest Gunner, Native upmanship, it takes time.....cause if he wins that, and proves he can handle fences then I don't think we'll be seeing that 40-1 anymore...

applehunter

I thought Jonjo's stable was closed.

evillive

JJ O'N could be back on track entries this weekend including iris's gift

i'll eat my best mate betting slips if iris's gift or any novice wins the gold cup this year - it doesnt happen around those fences and cheltenham

god forbid they'd end up doing a gloria victis with the horse

tiedcottage

Let's first of all be focused here. Beef or Salmon will not win the Gold Cup. Forget the 2004 running, which was run on false ground (look at the foxhunters run half an hour later, 13 year old Earthmover should NOT have been quick enough to win it again). He had finished well clear of HP the previous year and Sir Rembrandt had been awful in the races preceding it. Keen Leader, Therealbandit and Irish Hussar all ran too bad to be true. The evidence is there that its fporm cannot really be taken at face value.

Then take the two races at L'Town, BOS loses badly to Rule Supreme because he's not himself. Best Mate loses to BOS when he's not himself, but would still have beaten RS had the latter not capsised at the last. BOS is not within half a stone of BM on that form line alone.

As for the others, I'm yet to be convinced by the stamina of Therealbandit, Our Vic DEFINITELY wouldn't get home, and will run in the Daily Telegraph Chase (though maybe with It Takes Time tailored for that now, Johnson and Pipe will have a rethink). Kicking King is a very doubtful stayer, he pulled hard and got outstayed by BOS earlier in the season, and walked from the last at Kempton (another half a furlong as Kingscliff would have had him) - he should go for teh Daily Telegraph, which he only needs to turn up for and jump round to win. Grey Abbey needs very soft ground, and with this injury may now be rested for Aintree. Rule Supreme is still a doubtful runner and lacks the turn of foot. He won a substandard Sun Alliance last year and earlier was way behind Strong Flow in the Feltham. Celestial Gold seems a bit like Rough Quest, a top-class handicapper who could be ridden for a place, but surely not good enough to win (he was in the 4 miler last year remember). Sir Rembrandt has no chance, Pizarro less than no chance, while Iris's Gift would need the biggest resurrection since Lazarus to come back in time after his defeat today, no matter how much he would come on for the race and the extra distance, and I'm yet to see how Jonjo could turn round his stable nighmare in time (which also rules out the nonethless not good enough Keen Leader). Plus the novice record in the race is hardly encouraging, after the tragedies of Gloria Victis and Lanzarote and the subsequent disappearance of Drumadowney and Unsinkable Boxer, and the capsising of Carvill's Hill, Slalom, Von Trappe, Danoli and Beef or Salmon. For the horse's sake, I hope they write 2005 off as a bad lot and bring back Iris's next year.


As for Venn Ottery, his owner seems to regard him as Golden Miller reborn, but you have to take with apinch of salt his claims of getting the Gold Cup trip, as two miles seems his trip and he's only thinking of the Gold Cup because he knows he's have no chance against the holy trinity of Az, MF and WC in that. Strong Flow's credentials are good, and he'll be better for the extra trip, but does he have the turn of foot necessary to win the Gold Cup. He's a danger. Kingscliff has an obvious chance, and would probably have beaten Matey had he not been injured last year. One Knight has been overlooked and in a race that has been won by such horses as Cool Dawn and Cool Ground, decent handicappers and no more, anything is possible. If allowed to dictate pace like Imperial Call before him, he could post an upset.

For me, though it's Kingscliff to outstay Matey, with Strong Flow and One Knight the dangers.

fr wishy washy

it would be a big mistake to run iris gift in the gold cup this year as the horse only looked half fit at lingfield on sat.

tiedcottage

Agreed, he would need at least another month. Better to keep his novice status intact and come back next year after a proper campaign not fighting forever against time, because time will always win. Otherwise we might see him go the way of the likes of Monsignor.

Morgans

TiedCottage, you appear to have a very strong knowledge of racing histrory, taken the name of one of the great irish horses but I need to take you to task on some of your statements above.

BoS is correctly priced at about 10/1 to win the gold cup. In your critique of last year's gold cup, you have neglected to suggest that BoS was at his best on that occasion, having been off the course for three months and well behind according to connections and associates before the race. What was striking about the horse was that a) he got round, something that his critics didtn believe that he could do, and b) the amount of ground the horse made up from the turn into the straight, he was about 15l back at least to finish 3l off BM at the line having once again ploughed through the last.

I would suggest that he is the most talented horse in the race. BM has won three gold cups, is a fantastic animal but lacks the pace of BoS. It was stayers Harbour Pilot and Sir Rembradnt that he scraped by last year. In punting, the best guide for winners in the long term is recent form. On this years form BM has little chance of being placed. It has to be taken on trust that the horse is back to his best (better than last year) and it is still open to question that this is good enough. BoS has a turn of foot on any ground, something that put 4-5l between him and BM at Leopardstown in a matter of strides. Technically last year BM's ran to 170 in the Gold Cup, BoS ran to 176 at Punchestown. BoS is probably the best horse in the race, and acts on good ground, check the form book. He is the price that he is because of the possible fast pace increasing teh pressure on his faulty jumping technique. With Grey Abbey somewhat doubtful for the race, there arent that many front runners lining up in the race. If Bos jumps round, and is anywhere near BM turning into the straight, he will outspeed him, and win. Any prices bigger than 10s is still value, as he has the talent to win, and it is a big price for such a talented horse. If he turns up at his best, whatever beats him will win.

Next thing. Rule Supreme is probably the only stayer in training with a better turn of foot than BoS. It was in evidence in last years Punchestown National Trial, last years Sun Alliance, this years Long walk hurdle and in the Hennessey. The speed he showed from the last in Windsor was phenomenal for a stayer, adn make no mistake he is a serious horse. winner of the french champion hurdle from some highly hyped french horses also. He hasnt got the credit he deserves for his run in the lexus where he lost about 8l with a bad mistake 4 out, and BoS was unlucky in the Hennessey as the only horse in training that he would not outspeed at the end of a slog is Rule Supreme. Because they were stride for stride in heavy ground, it might be hard to guage accurately, but to me they wer flying to the last, putting huge daylight between themselves at teh rest of teh field. Like BoS, he has the problem of jumping, if he jumps around to the best of his ability, it is no conincedence that Casey got the best out of him when reunited. and if he is in contention as they turn for home, there is no staying horse in training quicker than him.

I question the support behind Kingscliffe and there is no proof whatsoever that he would have won last years gold cup had he not been injured. He won two handicaps well, starting off a really lenient mark, before losing, injured to Arctic Jack. There was nothing to suggest that he was up to Gold Cup class. I have serious questions about him in the KG. I think he flattered hugely, in the end he beat a non-staying Az by 1.5l over 3m. He caught the eye coming from behind and with KK mistake jumping the last, he was favourite to win the race for a few strides on Betfair. In the end KK won going away from him, avoiding Santa in the process, and Kingscliffe wasnt gaining any ground on the horse in the last 150 yards. Check the video on that one. Given that in boht his efforts over Cheltenham so far he led by a good 8l at the last fence only to fade badly up the hill - i backed him in the foxhunters - means that he has questions to answer for me.

KK will go close, but was running on adrenalin up the straight at kempton, having won the race a mile out, if he is restrained he might stay, but the final hill just might catch him out. NExt year could be his, if he strenthens up more as he grows. Wouldnt turn anyone off him though.

Strong Flow is a punt in the dark as you are having to hope that Nicholls has eimproved the horse since his injury. I dont think that he himself knows and it is guesswork to know if he retains the zip he showed when winning the Hennessey last year. Celestial Gold could go well at a decent prize. On the up and definitely quicker than the idea of him being a 4m - remember it was the Paddy Power chase over 2m5f that he won in november - from Victor Chandler chase second Thisthatandtother with saturday's Grade 1 first and second over 2m4f behind him. The blend of speed, stamina, and safe jumping is what you want in a gold cup contender. He wouldnt have the speed of RS or BoS, but has the jumping.

Best Mate is the solid suggestion, in that he has proven over the course. Has no question marks over his jumping, which his most talented rivals do, and whatever you think will win the race, you should put something on the horse at 3s, as it is simply too big. He probably wont start much longer than 2s.

The others not mentioned have only a Nortons Coin type success to hope for.

tiedcottage

I can agree with some of your points, Morgans. I agree BOS Salmon and Rule Supreme have excellent turns of foot, certainly better than Best Mate, my concern is whether they will be good and quick enough with their jumping to still be near enough at the end. I agree RS's turn of foot after the last at Windsor was extraordinary, but it did tend to remind me of Anzum a decade ago, who could come from miles back and did win a stayers hurdle when Le Coudray didn't quite get home, but will he be close up enough to do so in a Gold Cup (and Crystal d'Ainay hardly franked the form last time, even if It Takes Time's win does bolster his claims). When he won the SA last year he was even further back coming down the hill (about ten lengths I'd say), but Royal Emperor has been woefully outclassed this year (though possibly not right) and OV was a non stayer. Plus, if the ground as is likely turns up good, it wouldn't surprise me to see him run in the World Hurdle instead, especially with Rhinestone Cowboy and Iris's Gift out of the reckoning and Baracouda surely not quite the horse of 2-3 years ago. For that reason alone, he's not worth a bet at this stage for the Gold Cup.

BOS is oudoubtedly a horse with some engine, but he has got to be the most unreliable horse in terms of actually not being under the weather. Michael Hourigan deserves eternal respect for getting him on song as often as he does. I just think he'll struggle to get close enough and, like Dorans Pride before him, though he might act better on better ground, ironically it might lose him his best chance. I agree that he outpaced Matey round the bend at L'Town, but if Matey was as wrong as HK and co said he was (and if we take rightly take MH on his word about the Irish Hennessy, we should believe HK about the Lexus, then you could pick holes in both performances.

I agree a lot with Strong Flow has to be taken on trust. He won the Hennessy impressively, probably the most impressive since One Man won at the same age, but his Feltham performance was more impressive for me with regards to Cheltenham, considering he tried to bring at least two fences back with him and gained an injury in doing so. Fair enough, Ballycassidy hasn't been shown to be that much since, but RS was some way back in third (admittedly possibly not suited by Kempton) and though I rather wish PN had gone for the Pillar rather than the Aon to test him round Cheltenham, I'd sooner trust his return to form than I would trust the likes of Iris's Gift.

As for Kingscliff, I know that to expect him to outstay Best Mate is going on hunch rather than proof, but one cannot always wait till after the event. I know that when BM saw both the unfortunate Jair du Cochet and Kingscliff fall by the wayside in the days running up to the Gold Cup, it would have been Kingscliff I would have more feared. Like Rushing Wild before him, he may not have a turn of foot, but he won't be stopping up the hill and seems in general a decent enough jumper. I remember that he did tie up a bit up the hill when winning the foxhunters, but he was only a 6 year old then and liable to toughen up. Plus I know R Alner has said he's a better horse than Sir Rembrandt, and if we are to take the Gold Cup form of last year as solid (which I'm not), that would place him ahead of Best Mate last year, who certainly ran over half a stone under his 2003 rating.

As for front runners, I agree that Grey Abbey probably won't be there - injured and would want soft ground which we haven't had at Cheltenham since Master Oats in 95. The pace will probably be provided by One Knight, who seems to have been earmarked for the race and loves good ground. Like Mr Mulligan before him, a lesser horse may be enough to see off the better horses coming from behind. My heart just says he isn't good enough to win it, only place in the first four.

KK I agree won't stay this year, and should go for the DT Trophy, which he should stroll. I just think that, like F Peral before him he hasn't got the legs for 3¼ up the hill.

I would love Best Mate to win a fourth Gold Cup, but I do question what quality of horse he has really beaten in the last two Gold Cup wins. That's not his fault, of course, just as it wasn't See You Then and Istqbraq's fault that all contenders fell by the wayside (See You Then benefitting from the better Brownes Gazette's tragic demise, for example). I also don't decry HK from not running him in handicaps. Did Champion Hurdlers such as those listed above, Alderbrook and Kribensis ever run in handicaps?

I cannot see Best Mate finishing outside of the first three, unless it comes up a bog. But even then, like Desert Orchid before him, he might win by virtue of so few finishing, because he'd be near certain to jump round (even if Cheltenham is not as stiff a course by far as it was in the late eighties, especially since they modified the ditches, which can now be paddled through alarmingly easily). Plus, I think HK and co have been to quick to condemn BM not acting on soft ground. I remember him sleucing up in a 2½ miles novice chase at Sandown on very soft ground and only having Barton ahead of him in the sort of conditions reserved for WWI battles at Aintree in 2001.

Celestial Gold I can see running a big honest race, I just think that he'll struggle in this company, and seems also to prefer the bigger field that a big handicap would bring. I can see a single figure line up for the Gold Cup this year, which would surely favour the likes of BM and the Irish horses who are used to such quantityless contests. Plus, with Our Vic, Therealbandit and It Takes Time all in the Gold Cup or Daily Telegraph shake up, it'll be interesting to see who Pipe and Johnson aim at each race with him.

I agree the rest would require a NCoin or Cool Dawn scenario, but though stranger things have happened, they are not a betting option. But then again, I am analysing it from a non betting standpoint. The last twice I bet on the Gold Cup I had Gloria Victis antepost at 33-1 and See More Business antepost at 50-1 for 1998. (Cyborgo, drat!) It's not a lucky race for me (though saying that I did clean up on Mr Mulligan in 97).

tiedcottage

Well, few real surprises at the forfeit stage, Iris's Gift abd Keen Leader out. But the big loss for the Best Mate camp was that loss of One Knight who, with Grey Abbey doubtful due to both injury and ground, was the last remaining possible front runner. If it comes to a slow gallop, Kicking King coul dbe able to dictate matters to get the trip and burn them all off as he did all bar Azertyuiop in that crucial point of the King George.

Thoughts?

fade2black

Excellent analysis on both sides there. Well done guys. I'm gonna wait for couple of weeks before I start dissecting all the possible chances. Have a few bankers in mind though and some each way certs at nice prices...thats for another day though.

By the way, I urge everyone to think about joining the Paddy Power competition, some good prize money and we can enter up our ten horses on here and see how we all do. (I have no affiliation with Paddy Power by the way (of course) but I think it's a great idea to get involved in competitions that are cheap to enter, give you an interest in every race without having to place a bet and provides some exellent prizes in the end. A lot of pubs do this too so be sure to keep an eye out.