moscow flyer v azertyioup

fr wishy washy

folks,how are we going to split these two fabulous horses in the queen mother.

i've backed azertyioup for the last 2 years (the arkle 2003 & last years champion chase) and am loathe to desert him.but moscow seems better than ever this year .............help......................

evillive

as much as i'm a huge fan of moscow flyer my head says azertyuiop i think he'll be too speedy

although the front running tactics from this years tingle creek could be employed again to try to force errors

fr wishy washy

evillive wrote:

as much as i'm a huge fan of moscow flyer my head says azertyuiop i think he'll be too speedy

although the front running tactics from this years tingle creek could be employed again to try to force errors

i think jumping will be a crucial factor again this year.
i can't remember azertiyoup touching a twig on his two visits to cheltenham before and i'd say i'll be backing him.

Morgans

IMO, Moscow Flyer is the quicker horse, even at the ages, Moscow Flyer is teh better if riskier jumper, and if he stands up will not get beaten. If you are backing Azertyuiop, you are backing Moscow Flyer to fall. IMO. I'm not sure Az will finish second with Well Chief about. I cant remember anticipating a race as keenly as the QM last year, this year however, it is only a question of MF standing up.

Hobart

Morgans wrote:

If you are backing Azertyuiop, you are backing Moscow Flyer to fall.

The above quote is exactly what I feel.

fr wishy washy

Morgans wrote:

IMO, Moscow Flyer is the quicker horse, even at the ages, Moscow Flyer is teh better if riskier jumper, and if he stands up will not get beaten. If you are backing Azertyuiop, you are backing Moscow Flyer to fall. IMO. I'm not sure Az will finish second with Well Chief about. I cant remember anticipating a race as keenly as the QM last year, this year however, it is only a question of MF standing up.

i'm probably taking a bit of a flyer but azertyioup looks a better horse at prestbury park over fences than elsewhere.

i thought azertyioup was going at least as well as moscow when the latter turned over last year............

i think you guys might be a little over confident with the "moscow standing up to win" statement

Morgans

well whenever he has stood up, he has beaten Azertyuiop. In fact, when he has stood up, noone has beaten him. What Azertyuiop had in his favour was that Moscow Flyer was moving past his prime while Azertyuiop was supposedly coming into his. Moscow Flyer proved at Sandown that he has not lost any of his speed. It was far from cut and dried that MF would have beaten Az last year had he stood up, but subsequent events have proven that the percentage call is that he would have been too quick. Horses like Venn Ottery were too close to Az turning into the straight to consider the QM as being the a genuine top class event. Az has proven that he can carry big weights in handicaps, and is clearly a good horse, just not as quick or as good as Moscow Flyer. You'll be telling your grandkids about Moscow Flyer. Going through four years chasing unbeaten in completed chases is a phenomenal record.

evillive

last years champion chase probably doesnt show azertyuiops win as good as it could/should have been, as soon as moscow flyer fell it was just a matter of getting around,

any danger to him would have been distanced if required i think

i know i didnt see it, i was just getting sick because i had backed moscow flyer since the previous years tingle creek, i backed him in this years tinlgle creek but i think this cheltenham will be azertyuiops

as long as they finish 1st and 2nd either way will do as i have them both in my ten to follow entries

applehunter

Im a massive Moscow fan. His win in the Arkle and the Champion Chase are my best recent memories of Cheltenham. I think he still has the speed advantage of Azert... Remember Moscow was just short of Istabraq in the hurdles game. And in my opinion it was only Istabraq's jumping that game him the advantage.

nobody can touch Moscow when he jumps. He has a touch of arrogence about him too. He always just does enough. I get the impression that if he wanted to he would win each race by 20 lengths.

Morgans

For a chaser to beat any horse rated in the 180s by 20l would make Moscow Flyer the best chaser of the last 30 years bar none. His lazy style of running will mean that we will probably never know his real superiority. You are correct about Istabraq. Moscow Flyer fell two out in the AIg with Istabraq sitting three lengths off him on one occasion. Moscow didnt look like stopping then, but Istabraq beat him in the rerouted Punchestown champion hurdle four months later.

fr wishy washy

ante post price before moscow at punchestown

2/1 joint favs az & m f
100/30 well chief (impressive weight carrying saturday)

fr wishy washy

latest paddy power odds wed 2nd feb

6/4 mos f
2/1 azert
11/4 well chief

applehunter

Morgans wrote:

For a chaser to beat any horse rated in the 180s by 20l would make Moscow Flyer the best chaser of the last 30 years bar none. His lazy style of running will mean that we will probably never know his real superiority. You are correct about Istabraq. Moscow Flyer fell two out in the AIg with Istabraq sitting three lengths off him on one occasion. Moscow didnt look like stopping then, but Istabraq beat him in the rerouted Punchestown champion hurdle four months later.

Ok, 20 lengths was an exageration on my part. But I still feel he does just enough.

fr wishy washy

thought he did well today folks.

he did tire on the run in but the ground was a bit dead.giving 4 lbs as well
well chief's jumping was very poor on the day.

bring on the queen mother

applehunter

I think Moscow will have the beating of both those runners on today's form. I dont think either jumped well.

Morgans

Agreed. Good and all that both horses are, they are not in Moscow Flyers class. unbeaten in completed chases for going on four years, phenomenal consistency and a credit to perhaps the best trainer in Ireland.

tiedcottage

The talk about the match up could lead to Well Chief taking both of them up the hill (remember he outstayed Kicking King up the hill last year). Remember Sound Man and Viking Flagship in the mid nineties, slogging it out only for Klairon Davis to do them up the hill.

Seriously, though, I think Moscow is the all round better horse, but Azertyuiop can beat him. We will know at the top of the hill. If Azertyuiop is in front of Moscow at the top of the Hill, I think his superior jumping and ability to quicken round the home bend will make Moscow bring out all the stops. Plus, Moscow is now 11 and Az has three years on him. Any horse trying to sit behind Moscow and outsprint him might as well not bother turning up, it would take a chaser with the speed of an Istabraq or an Alderbrook to match him, and there aren't too many of them. Ruby must make Moscow come to him. If you study the video of last year's race, it's no coincidence that Moscow fell just as Azertyuiop put in a clever short stride. Moscow made a mistake at the same fence the previous year, but then he passed tiring falling horses in Seebald and Latalomne. If Ruby goes to the front at half way, or even from the outset - remember how he toyed with the Arkle field in 2003 from the front - Moscow may still get to him, but he would have to jump better than Azertyuiop, and I don't think he will. Of course, Azertyuiop may have to make his own running, because Armaturk and Cenkos no longer look quick enough to blaze the trail in a Champion Chase, One Way is a hold up horse, and unless Central House takes his place (more likely to go for the 2m5f race), he may have no choice. As for WC, don't rule him out, but I think he'll be a close third, and it'll be a step up in distance from him next year. It cxould be the smallest field since Badsworth Boy and Bobsline scared everyone off in 1985.

fade2black

Welcome tiedcottage, it's good to have someone with some good analytical skills to add to our growing horse racing forum. I hope you'll continue to post here.

tiedcottage

Thanks fade2black. Let's see what comments people have to make in reply.

Morgans

I think it is wrong to suggest that Az is a better jumper than MF. Safer possibly, but he continually drags his hind legs through his fences. Something he did at the fence that Moscow Flyer fell at last year. Just as he did at the last at Newbury. It doesnt seem to effect the horse much though. MF is a riskier jumper, but better through the air, and quicker on the ground. There is a big difference between Az cantering down the hill a couple of lengths ahead of Flagship Uberalles and Venn Ottery, being able to drop a gear only to pick up and go away from the rivals.

Whatever speed Az wants to go at, MF will be able to match. He is only four months older from when he beat Az at Sandown. SHouldnt be used as an excuse.

fr wishy washy

fade2black wrote:

Welcome tiedcottage, it's good to have someone with some good analytical skills to add to our growing horse racing forum. I hope you'll continue to post here.

ditto from me (re tiedcottage),


i can see the race now in my minds eye and ruby will definitely try to serve it up to m f and hope for a mistake or two to help his cause.

as i've said earlier he's never touched a twig in his two previous spins around the track and m f could be found out again in the jumping dept.

i'm not for one minute saying that m.f has to fall for az to win as i just think
az is unbeatable at 2 miles around the cheltenham fences.

tiedcottage

You may be right, Morgans, and as I said Moscow is probably the better horse, but for Az to have any chance, he cannot sit behind him, he must make Moscow come to him. It all comes down to tactics, for if it was down to better horses winning, Carvill's Hill would have won a Gold Cup, rather than be exposed as he was. MF may do sit behind Az and still win, but at least he'll have to work to win, whereas if Moscow is allowed to dictate it's all over (and I think John Hales shared similar feelings after another handing of the Tingle Creek over in the autumn). One thing for certain is that it's Moscow's last chance to regain his crown, as at 12 next year he'll surely be too old, and even though this year's 2 mile novices don't look too hot (possibly injured Kauto Star aside), surely Az and WC would have the better of him then. Of course Barry Geraghty may try to take the pace on himself, there would be nothing to stop him doing so, but then Az would certainly take him on and we may have another 1995 scenario (when ironically it happened twice on the same day, with Banjo and Harcon cutting each other's throats and handing the sun alliance to Brief Gale).

The last horse older then 10 to win the Champion Chase was Skymas at 12 in 1977. Not that it means that Moscow can't win, far from it, but it's another trend he has to buck. He'd certainly be helped by softer ground, though, because he certainly has greater stamina than Azertyuiop (I honestly think they would have won the King George had they run Moscow there rather than that nothing race at L-Town).

Crumbs

I want to know why people keep typing "Az" instead of "Azertyuiop". I love typing it out fully. Azertyuiop. Azertyuiop. Azertyuiop. Azertyuiop. Azertyuiop.


Anyway, it's Moscow Flyer for me. Phenomenal horse.
I just hope all 3 stand up and run their best race - it's giving me goosebumps already.

23 days and counting.

Morgans

I agree that Az cannot try to outspeed MF. He wont win that way. But i dont think that Az is a superior jumper, far from it. MF is a little riskier, but it also means that he gains ground through the air by having a more aggressive technique.

Stats give you some help but are not the be all and end all. Age didnt stop Moscow Flyer from beating Az in Decemeber and to be honest, I dont think Az is improving now, with his form plateauing out. Well Chief as a 6yo has scope but french breds and martin pipe horses both peak young. Moscow Flyer importantly has shown no signs of deteriorating this season. I think Ruby and connections were exposed in teh Tingle Creek Chase, and are far from being das bullish as they were at this stage last season 'Az will never finish behind MF again'

The difference between MF and Carvills Hill, who you mention, is that MF has won two championship races at Cheltenham. On the Brief Gale scenario, she was slightly underrated and didnt come into her race with nearly the same profile as WC. Dont worry, I dont think there is any chance of Ruby and Barry underestimate Well Chief.

You mention the record of 12yo, or horses older than 10, no horse having won the race since the 70s, I know MF is 11, but how many 11yo have gone into the race with the best form, the clear handicap choice. I suggest that no more than a handful of 12yo have ran in the race in the past decade, with chances being that they shouldnt have won on form. Stats buffs said that no 8yo mare ever won the supreme novices, opposing like a butterfly. No 8yo mare tried it. There arent any supernatural forces that will stop the best horse from winning, regardless of their profile.

tiedcottage

Oh I agree stats are there to be broken, and Moscow is very lightly raced, but it's just another thing that history is against it. Personally it's not a race to bet on, but to savour. I think whoever wins may prove the best 2 miles since Badsworth Boy (no direspect to the likes of Barnbrook Again, Pearlyman and One Man).

I'm just with Azertyuiop because I just think he is a better horse round Cheltenham than anywhere else and not because it's lefthanded, as if you study the vids of the 03 Arkle and 04 Champion, he does jump slightly to the right over the last few (uncannily like One Man in 98).

I also agree that they won't underestimate Well Chief, and I repeat he must be a good horse on his beating of KK in last year's Arkle alone, let alone his weight humping effort in the VC. Azertyuiop can't outspring Moscow Flyer because he would need to be a Badsworth Boy to do that. But a combination of a turn of foot coupled with jumping (very clever as opposed to spectacular - put it this way, totally irrelevant though it may be, if the CChase was run over a circuit of the National course, bypassing the chair and water, there's only one horse you'd be backing) should see him home for me. There is only one pound between them on official ratings and a form line through Isio via last year's Victor Chandler and Melling Chase and 2003's Arkle has them hard to seperate.

I just hope Az does try and lead from the front, because I concede he has zero chance to win tracking the Flyer.

Morgans

Whatever way you put it, national fences or not. Any time Moscow Flyer has finished a race with Azertyuiop against him, Moscow Flyer has won. The main thing that Az had in his favour was that MF was getting older, but he has proven that he has lost none of his speed, and I'd guess that Az has stopped improving. Moscow Flyer only does enough in front, and the chances are if there is a horse good enough to live with him and come at him, he will find more. Az arkle and QM were fine wins but in neither did he have to race against MF (for long, unfortunately) or Well Chief. If MF falls, I'd have Az to beat WC, but if he stands up, there can be only one winner in my mind.