Friday 16.00 on the Met chart

amandstu

Screenshot_20250930-121449_Met ireann.jpg

Does this look bad at this stage?

Do other models diverge?

pjohnson

The fact @M.T. Cranium hasn't highlighted it yet gives me hope it wont be too bad

amandstu

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123863807#Comment_123863807

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123863080#Comment_123863080

I see he does have it on his mind.Says it could well be bad but the models haven't converged yet.

HerrKapitan

Mr Wearherman has highlighted it and it is "more than likely" hitting Ireland.

M.T. Cranium

Yes, model guidance has been spread over a wide range and is slowly beginning to converge as of the latest runs, waiting to see the latest from European model before deciding whether a thread is needed although we can just rename this one if so. There is still some spread on latitude reached by centre of low with some solutions still taking a relatively weak centre into parts of Connacht and Ulster, others taking a stronger low off the northwest coast but not by a large margin, so if the northern tracks are correct a yellow to possibly orange alert will likely be issued for parts of west Ulster and north Connacht; if an inland track verifies a yellow alert wind situation is then more likely in southwest counties and possibly a yellow or even lower end orange level rain alert could be required for much of the country.

I don't know what the met's internal timetable may be for deciding on issuance of alerts but I won't be going down this route until at least 8 p.m. after looking over all the guidance. Also there are downgrades in shorter range forecasts for Humberto, from which this storm is being spawned, whether directly or indirectly, so we need to factor in how reliable that makes the model runs.

It could well be then, that not much clarity will be available to forecasters in general until Wednesday morning or even later. I wish we could be a bit more definite but there's no point in going out with an outlook carved in stone which will then later have to be abandoned. I would say if you're in the west, generally speaking, be on storm watch and expect a possible storm alert to be issued for some part of western Ireland for late Thursday into Friday.

Meteorite58

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123864772#Comment_123864772

Took the liberty of opening a dedicated thread MT , like that thinking we are starting to see more of a convergence from the models ( especially the main models) of the energy that looks to be coming our way over Fri and Sat.

Strom Watch Thread below

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058425792/storm-watch-fri-3rd-sat-4th-oct-2025

M.T. Cranium

Yes, I just saw the European model and it looks quite intense. Good plan, we will move the discussion over to there, maybe lock this one?

Meteorite58

Will close this thread now as dedicated Storm Watch thread opened.

Thanks