Charts ( up to T120) Autumn 2025 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

Gonzo · 31-08-2025 06:52PM #1

Mod Note:

This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing CHARTS in the shorter range timeframe up to T120 hours (next 5 days) for Autumn 2025.

If your post does not specifically relate to a chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved

Thank you.

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The final week of Summer 2025 saw a big pattern change back to unsettled and quite cool Atlantic conditions. This looks like continuing well into the first week of September and possibly beyond with no shortage of cloud, wind and rain or showers over the coming week.

The Green blop of slime will control our weather over the coming week with rain most if not all days and fairly windy as well.

On and on and on it goes

Rainfall while not overly heavy, will be frequent in the form of showers and some fairly wet days can be expected, but amounts not excessive.

Temperatures over the coming week will be mostly below average especially across western areas where 15C+ could be a struggle. Temperatures in the east may still reach 18C at times but feeling relatively cool and fresh everywhere over the coming week. The suntan lotion and garden furniture can be safely put away for the time being.

Gipo3 · 01-09-2025 10:35AM

this thread is titled FI?

Meteorite58 · 04-09-2025 08:19PM

Models for later Sat through to Monday differing a fair bit at this stage. Showing various bands of heavy rain, all seem to show Sat night into Sunday as moderate to heavy rain crossing the country and blustery with it and thereafter it begins to become unclear. ECM 12Z is a bit of an outlier I reckon, latest output is a stark difference to earlier runs being much more benign than earlier.

How close the pivoting LP comes to our shores and what track is very unclear but a spell of windy blustery and wet weather possible around Monday. Models showing secondary lows, waves forming and the original low moving in over Ireland by some so a lot to be resolved over the coming days. Not showing anything too strong at this stage but some part of the country could get clipped by stronger winds but not showing storm at this stage anyway.

Some areas look to get big rainfall accumulations but again unclear depending on the tracks, models showing the SW initially on Sat/ Sun getting heavy rains.

Seeing some very mild temperatures overnight Sat into Sun. Thunderstorms possible at times over the weekend, maybe in those unstable fronts later Sat into Sun : showing high Theta E and W , moist warm buoyant airmass coming up from the SW with high DP's.

Meteorite58 · 05-09-2025 07:25PM

ECM was probably first to pull away the stronger winds from the country over the weekend and the rest are now following suit, not the outlier I thought after all. Getting windy/ blustery on Sat with approaching fronts and wet and windy for a time through the evening and overnight but not as heavy looking as earlier, SW still looks to get the most, more so S Kerry /W Cork.

Sunday the wind and rain clearing somewhat through the morning / early afternoon, not as windy or wet on the latest runs, showers some heavy and some thunderstorms perhaps. Mon now a lot less windy, later Mon night into Tues another wave /low quickly developing , will have to see where that goes, might be a bit windy in parts but not certain as yet.

The Low although quite deep is not that compact initially, more elongated, gets down to about 977hPa off the NW and as it pulls away towards Iceland deepens a bit further but strong winds more NW of us. Big seas along the Atlantic over coming days.

modwaveecmwf_20250905_1900_animation (1).gif

Meteorite58 · 06-09-2025 12:15PM

Latest 24hrs precipitation charts.

WolfeEire · 09-09-2025 11:45AM

Ireland faces the risk of wet and windy weather from Sunday evening into Monday morning as a deepening area of low pressure approaches the northwest.

Forecasts from multiple models, including ECM, GFS, GEM, and JMA, show strong southwesterly winds developing on Saturday afternoon and evening, later shifting to the west and northwest. The UKMO model, however, is less bullish on a deep area of low pressure forming as of Tuesday morning’s update.

While the finer details will evolve over the coming days, there is broad agreement on the likely track of the system.

The first named storm of the 2025–26 season will be Storm Amy, but current forecasts suggest that Sunday evening’s winds are unlikely to meet the criteria for naming in Ireland. Maximum gusts of 85–90 km/h are expected along the Atlantic seaboard, particularly in northwest counties. Gusts further inland are currently estimated at 60-70 km/h.

Meteorite58 · 09-09-2025 08:33PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123798522#Comment_123798522

UKMO full on stormy again this evening Wolfe but as we can see plenty of chopping and changing yet but in general the models holding a spell of windy weather for a time around Sun and Mon but still different tracks, strength and duration.

ICON quite windy in parts but strongest winds going through in a few hours, GFS good strong winds of 80 -90 km/h crossing the country, ECM went off the boil but coming back again but not as strong as earlier runs, 80 to 90k/h in parts but the strongest winds going trough quickly enough, blustery for a time, and the other models showing various tracks and strengths.

Most of the models showing a flabby center and some tight isobars further out and all look different this far out so very hard to know for sure how strong and where for now, Can see UKMO on the latest run much more defined storm system with tight isobars right n to the core deepening on approach to landfall. Time will tell.