Sunday 25th Curragh

del roy

Sunday - The Curragh 3.05 – Anmaat

This fellow is a real old favourite of mine now, and I’m really looking forward to getting back on him. He’s a lot further forward this year than he was last year, when he still won first time up after a long time off, albeit that was a Group Three, and this is a good looking Group One. 

He’s been to Kempton for a racecourse gallop, and Owen Burrows was very happy with him, he’s not easy to get fit at home as he’s a real old pro and very relaxed about the job, so whatever he does here, he will improve, but as I say, we’re very happy with where he is. We’re drawn in stall six, and slightly lower would have been preferable in order to drop him in, but that said, he’s versatile enough to be up with the pace or sat off it, he doesn’t need to be ridden one way.

There is rain forecast on Saturday, good ground will be fine, good to soft would be great for us, but we’ll take what we get. Of his rivals, Los Angeles and White Birch are match fit, while Kalpana is starting her season like us, but we are the highest rated in the field, and I’m not sure any of these could have done what he did at Ascot in the Champion Stakes, he showed an unbelievable turn of foot that day.

BIG DRIFTER OUT TO 9/1 FROM 4/1 LAST NIGHT

3.40 1000 Guineas lay of the fav

I’m laying this one to back in running and looking for 25% profit all round.
1540 Curragh Lake Victoria
Whenever O’Briens lose a big race there’s always a “reason” for it. Very rarely have I heard it wasn’t good enough. I’ve even read today that it’s back on its favourite track.
Prior to the loss it was 2/2 at the Curragh and Newmarket. Now it’s been beaten at Newmarket the Curragh is suddenly its favourite track.
This looks easier than the English 1000 but I still don’t feel that it should be odds on.
It didn’t look to have the speed for the guineas and will be better over further.
Some simple statistical musing which many don’t like but make it a Lay to Back.
Out of Frankel who has a CD record over the last 5 years of 2/32. Throw in today’s going and that becomes 0/11 and 0 places.
Out of last 12 races the bottom 3 draws account for only 4 winners with stall 3 featuring once which was last year.
Ryan Moore over the last 5 years with CD and Class is 4/23 for a loss of 13 points.
If we remove Distance it becomes 47/151 for a loss of 19 points.
Looking at Swelter its main challenger:
Out of Kingman whose CD record is 2/21. Add the going and it’s 2/8 with another place.
One of those winners is Field of Gold who stamped his authority yesterday.
Hayes over the last 5 years with CD and Class is 3/23 for a profit of 5.9 points.
Removing the distance it’s 14/114 for a profit of 64 points.
Ladbrokes are happy to oppose Lake Victoria at evens which is often a sign in itself.
So even money for a horse that seemed to lack the speed last time, from a sire that has 0/11 for CD and Class.
Or 3/1 for a Horse that strolled up last time and has a Sire with positive returns CD and Class whilst providing the Irish 2000 winner yesterday.

del roy

and some others if you are out having a pint and a few bets…………

TONY STAFFORD'S FAVOURED BETS FROM TODAY'S RUNNERS

TONY'S NAP

15:40 Curragh: Flight

I came away from Newmarket convinced that Flight was unlucky as she struck the front and immediately looked for company. She probably would have won if she kept straight and there's no chance of there being two races on this track.

TONY'S NEXT BEST

17:18 Fontwell Park: Eastern Shores

After a promising start at Fakenham, Fergal O'Brien has found a suitable follow-on for Eastern Shores. Normal improvment should get him over the line.

TONY'S TREBLE

14:58 Fontwell Park: Doc McCoy

Doc McCoy could hardly be in better form after two wins last week. The usual proviso is whether the race has come too soon, but Jamie Snowden knows his horses well, so the inference is obvious.

DIRECT QUOTES FROM TODAY'S TRAINERS…

TRAINED BY:

J SNOWDEN

34.8% 1 month win strike rate

(22.7% 1 year average)

52.2% 1 month place strike rate

(44.3% 1 year average)

22.2% win strike rate at:

Fontwell Park (5 years)

14:23 Fontwell Park

Socialiser

"Socialiser won a UK point and was 2nd for us first time under Rules in a hunter chase. He sustained an injury and was off gam,es for two and a half years but a promising return in novice hurdles was followed by disappointing runs in two handicap chases. I'msure he's better than that and if the ground is soft enough here, he could run well."

TRAINED BY:

B PAULING

12.5% 1 month win strike rate

(16.5% 1 year average)

16.7% 1 month place strike rate

(37.8% 1 year average)

16.2% win strike rate at:

Uttoxeter (5 years)

14:38 Uttoxeter

Fine Casting

"Fine Casting is in good order. He wouldn't normally want today's ground which could be too quick for him. This is his trip though and while he hasn't won for a long time I hope he can put his foot back into the territory of being a winner again."

TRAINED BY:

F M O'BRIEN

14.0% 1 month win strike rate

(14.4% 1 year average)

41.9% 1 month place strike rate

(37.8% 1 year average)

18.5% win strike rate at:

Uttoxeter (5 years)

14:38 Uttoxeter

Gwash

"Gwash has been off for almost a year. He needed his first run last year and while we hope he can go well today, he should improve next time on whatever he achieves here."

TRAINED BY:

J SNOWDEN

34.8% 1 month win strike rate

(22.7% 1 year average)

52.2% 1 month place strike rate

(44.3% 1 year average)

22.2% win strike rate at:

Fontwell Park (5 years)

14:58 Fontwell Park

Doc McCoy

"We expected Doc McCoy to do well over fences, but he proved disappointing, so he went back hurdling and won well at Fakenham last month. He's been busy over the past week, finishing a good 2nd at Huntingdon on Tuesday then winning a conditionsals' race at Ffos Las very easily too days later. He escapes a penalty for that and providing this race hasn't come too he is the one they all have to beat."

TRAINED BY:

R TEAL

17.4% 1 month win strike rate

(9.3% 1 year average)

43.5% 1 month place strike rate

(26.6% 1 year average)

25.0% win strike rate at:

Fontwell Park (5 years)

14:58 Fontwell Park

Vorderman

"I hope Vorderman gets a bit further than when unseating Ben at Plumpton the other day. Otherwise, it's the same comment as he's dead lazy at home so you'd never what to expect but seems to wake up on the track. He stays well and won here before so enjoys coming up that hill. It's a shame that he always has to take on older horse. I asked Mark Gillard the other day why there aren't any 4yo only handicap hurdles and he agreed with me that it's a nonsense."

TRAINED BY:

B PAULING

12.5% 1 month win strike rate

(16.5% 1 year average)

16.7% 1 month place strike rate

(37.8% 1 year average)

19.5% win strike rate at:

Fontwell Park (5 years)

14:58 Fontwell Park

Getaway Drumlee

"Getaway Drumlee was running well last time at Chepstow until fading out of things late on. I think that was a decent race and we're going further now which isn't a guaranteed negative. Hoping for a positive outcome."

TRAINED BY:

O SANGSTER

22.0% 1 month win strike rate

(13.4% 1 year average)

39.0% 1 month place strike rate

(30.6% 1 year average)

0.0% win strike rate at:

Curragh (5 years)

15:40 Curragh

Flight

"As at Newmarket, we run two smart fillies in this Irish Classic. Flight has come on a good bit from her excellent 2nd place in the 1,000 Guineas. She wil be fine on the ground and while they won't hear of defeat for Lake Victoria, we go there with a solid chance after her somewhat unlucky run on the Rowley Mile."

TRAINED BY:

O SANGSTER

22.0% 1 month win strike rate

(13.4% 1 year average)

39.0% 1 month place strike rate

(30.6% 1 year average)

0.0% win strike rate at:

Curragh (5 years)

15:40 Curragh

Simmering

"Simmering kept on strongly for 3rd at Newmarket. I'll monitor the ground as if it gets too testing she'll probably come out. Solid place prospect if she takes her chance."

TRAINED BY:

C LONGSDON

12.5% 1 month win strike rate

(12.6% 1 year average)

12.5% 1 month place strike rate

(28.6% 1 year average)

21.6% win strike rate at:

Fontwell Park (5 years)

16:43 Fontwell Park

Electric Jet

"Electric Jet disappointed last time after a couple of decent runs beforehand. At his best he would be a player, and I'd be happy if he ran into the money."

TRAINED BY:

F M O'BRIEN

14.0% 1 month win strike rate

(14.4% 1 year average)

41.9% 1 month place strike rate

(37.8% 1 year average)

15.8% win strike rate at:

Fontwell Park (5 years)

17:18 Fontwell Park

Eastern Shores

"Eastern Shores won his point before joining us and I was delighted with his debut 3rd for the stable at Fakenham. A little improvement should be enough to get his head in front. "

TRAINED BY:

B PAULING

12.5% 1 month win strike rate

(16.5% 1 year average)

16.7% 1 month place strike rate

(37.8% 1 year average)

16.2% win strike rate at:

Uttoxeter (5 years)

17:33 Uttoxeter

Bushstreet Bowman

"Bushstreet Bowman is a nice honest horse making his debut. He's no superstar, but he needs to run before going out to grass. He's not an obvious bumper type but he can run well, probably finishing in the places rather than winning. "

TRAINED BY:

W GREATREX

26.9% 1 month win strike rate

(15.6% 1 year average)

34.6% 1 month place strike rate

(42.0% 1 year average)

3.8% win strike rate at:

Uttoxeter (5 years)

17:33 Uttoxeter

Alba Crus

"Alba Cruz is one of the first runners for his sire, a useful performer for Godolphin. So far he has done well with his flat runers. Alba Cruz shows promise and I'm looking forward to a good debut run."