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Good Friday racing

  • 18-04-2025 11:08AM
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,304 ✭✭✭


    If you are undecided in which horses to bet today....Maybe this will help.....or maybe not. Some free email tips.....

    Lucky 15, 0.05pts ew (1.5pts total)

    13:30 at Lingfield DESTINADO @ 8/1 generally (5 places)

    The opening race on the Lingfield card is a massively competitive and wide open apprentice handicap but I’m hoping James Owen and Mason Paetel can do us a favour again after winning for us yesterday. Their runner, Destinado (7/1 at time of writing), certainly knows how to win races having won 10 times so far in his career and has had a decent winter/early spring. He won a couple of times back in November, including when scoring over 1m5f at this track in very easy fashion. He lost his way when dropped to 1m1f at Wolverhampton during February/March, failing to beat a horse home in a couple of handicaps. However, he bounced back to form out the blue last time out when landing a 19 runner race at Doncaster over 1m2f by nearly 2L. He was very impressive that day, travelling nicely and he pulled clear readily inside the final furlong. The handicapped has stuck him up 5lb for that win but that seems fair as he did win what was a big field and competitive looking race in comfortable style and this mark ought to be within reach having been beaten just over a length off this mark back in December and is technically 4lb lower with the jockey’s claim today. He gets in off a light weight, he’s a dual winner at this track, mark should be within reach and the trainer & jockey are both in very good form. He ought to run a good race if getting luck in running which you will always need in a 16 runner race around this tight track.

    13:50 at Newcastle BERKSHIRE WHISPER @ 13/2 generally (4 places)

    Andrew Balding and Oisin Murphy have teamed up to win the last two runnings of this race and their runner, Berkshire Whisper (9/1 at time of writing), looks to hold a big chance. This horse was 2nd at Kempton on debut, running a very promising race staying on from off the pace and the winner is now rated 85. Since that debut this colt has won back to back races, firstly over 6f at Kempton (didn’t look entirely straightforward under pressure) and then most recently winning over today’s CD. That win over track & trip last time out I thought was very impressive despite it only being a 4 runner race (gave weight to all the other runners) as they went a very slow pace and he was very keen. Despite that, he still cruised through the race and really quickened up and went clear stylishly to win by a little under 3L. He makes his handicap debut today off a mark of 89 which seems a fair mark judged on what he’s recorded RPR wise so far but also he has improved with every run and if anything today’s bigger field should help him settle that little bit better. He’s got a nice pedigree out of an unraced dam who is a half sister to a group 1 winning sprinter and this colt is a half brother to a 97 rated sprinter. He brings in plenty of potential, looks sure to have more now handicapping, hems proven over CD, should get a nice toe into the race, has shown he possesses a nice turn of foot and looks like he’s been kept relatively fresh for this. I really like his chance.

    15:00 at Newcastle STORM STAR @ 11/2 generally (4 places)

    This is a fascinating contest where you have the possible untapped potential of Roi De France, the quality group & listed form of Valiant Force and the unexposed improver of Storm Star all going head to head and it’s Andrew Balding’s runner, Storm Star (13/2 at time of writing) that I fancy here. This horse was a touch frustrating last year, finishing 2nd or 3rd in 5 consecutive races from July through to November. However, since being freshened up over Christmas and the new year, he’s returned with back to back wins over today’s CD, firstly winning a 0-105 by just under a length and then taking a 4lb rise in his stride to win a similar handicap by a length. The handicapper has stuck him up another 5lb for that win which seems fair as he did it with a bit in hand given he didn’t get a clear run, travelled so well compared to most and on RPR’s it was 6lb better than his previous career best. It’s worth noting that he’s still only had 9 career starts so he’s still very much unexposed and this looks like it’s been the plan all winter. He’s 3-4 at Newcastle, a strong traveller who will love this big field and likely decent pace to track, off a decent looking mark still and having been kept fresh with this race in mind; he makes plenty of appeal for an in-form yard.

    16:42 at Newcastle PLAGE DE HAVRE @ 4/1 generally (4 places)

    The final race in the cars at Newcastle looks a 4 horse race race between the red hot in-form Roaring Legend, improving Wonder Legend, the experienced Duke Of Oxford and the younger pretender who’s unexposed at this trip in Plage De Havre (11/2 at time of writing) and it’s the latter I fancy here. This horse has been improving all winter but had to settle for 2nd in 3 consecutive races at Wolverhampton, Chelmsford and then over 1m4f at Southwell on handicap debut when technically first past the post by a nose but demoted to 2nd. He gained compensation for that by winning a 0-90 handicap over 1m4f at this track by nearly 5L and the runner up has won twice since so the form looks good. I thought he ran well when 2nd at Wolverhampton over 1m6f last time out, beaten a little under 3L by Wonder Legend so has that form to reverse. I do think it’s possible he can reverse that form because that race last time out was a small field messy race that turned into a bit of a sprint the final 3 or 4 furlongs and that just left him outpaced at the rear. He steps up to 2m for the very first time so that’s the question mark but he gives the impression that he should enjoy this sort of marathon trip, especially given he looked outpaced at 1m6f last time out. If he can see out this longer trip then I do think he’s on a good mark currently and he’s only a 4yr old that’s had just 6 career starts so there could be plenty more to come. I think he’s a big threat.

    14:05 at Lingfield HITCHED @ 20/1 generally, 0.5pts ew (4 places)

    A hugely competitive race with both Mr Baloo and Arcadian Nights coming into this in a rich vein of form but the fascinating one at the prices is Hitched (20/1 at time of writing). David Simcock’s horse is a 5 time all-weather winner and 3 of those have come here at this track. He landed a 0-82 over CD back in January and was just a neck behind Arcadian Nights over CD again in February. I think a line can be put through both his last couple of runs, he was carried off the home bend (partly down to him hanging) at Wolverhampton two runs back and never stood a chance after that. At Lingfield earlier this month it was more having no luck rather than anything he did wrong as he didn’t get the clearest of passages but finished off well over the mile. Today’s step back up to 1m2f could suit him given he’s been finishing his races off well over a mile and his two goes over this CD have seen him finish 1st (won by half a length) and 2nd (beaten a neck). He’s now on a mark of just 76 which is the lowest he’s been rated since winning over CD off 1lb lower and was beaten a neck by Arcadian Nights off a 2lb higher mark (7lb better off at the weights today). He’s got a decent draw in stall 3, on a good looking mark, loves this track (especially this CD) and has form that ties in very well with the market leader yet he’s a giant price here. He’s well worth a chance at a price.

    14:40 at Lingfield DINGLE @ 9/1 generally, 0.5pts ew (4 places)

    I’ve been a backer of both Legal Reform and Dragon Icon in recent runs but at the prices I thought the value was with Dingle (10/1 at time of writing). This horse is talented on his day and he loves the all-weather with a 5-20 record on the artificial surfaces, albeit a clear preference for Newcastle. He did well this time last year which included finishing 2nd in the All-Weather Vase Mile over this CD, beaten just a neck off 1lb higher. He lost his form on turf last season and in the early winter, however, he was given an aggressive ride last time out and landed a 0-78 handicap at Kempton in fine style by 2L. That piece of form looks good now as Mr Baloo (back in 3rd) is 3-3 since. The handicapper has stuck him up 6lb for that win but he did win with plenty to spare, the form looks good, he’s won off a higher mark in the past and is 1lb lower than when beaten a neck in this very race 12 months ago. Although he’s winless at Lingfield and seems better at Newcastle, his form figures at Lingfield read 13342 so he clearly handles this track perfectly fine. He found form this time last year and a win last time out suggests he’s back in good heart again this time of the year, he’s well drawn to attack and sit handy again, still on a good mark, goes well here and the Julie Camacho team are in very good form. He’s got a good chance.

    15:50 at Lingfield SCATTERING LIGHT @ 10/1 generally, 0.5pts ew (4 places)

    Karl Burke’s runner, Party Bear, comes into this in top form looking to record a hattrick but Marco Botti’s runner, Scattering Light (12/1 at time of writing), is very much unexposed and could have untapped potential at 7f. This horse started off with Charlie Appleby and was a decent 3rd at Yarmouth behind a horse now rated in the 80’s and a potentially smart Roger Varian & KHK Racing horse. Since joining this yard she’s not quite lived up to her potential but did score nicely in a maiden at Wolverhampton over 6f back in March. She was well backed for her handicap debut over 6f at Wolverhampton just 13 days ago but could only finish 6th, however, she had a pretty nightmare of a run stuck behind horses and then didn’t get a clear run up the inside of the track in the home straight. She was only beaten a little over 2L there so it wasn’t a bad run by any means but the handicapper eases her 1lb to a mark of 75 which I think looks well within reach judged on RPR’s she’s recorded. She gets a step up to 7f today which, judged by the way she has run the last twice over 6f, should suit her and her dam stayed 1m4f so there’s plenty of stamina on that side of the pedigree. She’s nicely drawn in stall 4, she looks on a good mark, only had one run in handicap company so far so is completely unexposed; she could be a player at a good price here for a trainer who is 2-5 at this track in 2025 (4 of the 5 have finished in the first three home).

    16:07 at Newcastle OLD HARROVIAN @ 11/4 generally, 1pt win

    There’s no way I can’t put up Old Harrovian (9/2 at time of writing) again after he won so comfortably for us in his last run and we’ve been on him the last twice. This horse was once highly thought of as a possible group 1 horse before suffering injury problems but he’s returned in excellent form since November. He showed signs of getting back on track when 3rd over 1m3f at Kempton in a Middle Distance Series Handicap, staying on from well off the pace. He went on to finish 2nd (beaten just under a length) to Glen Buck at Southwell back in January, before absolutely bolting up over today’s CD by over 3L. He couldn’t have been more impressive last time out, cruising through the race on the bridle, met plenty of trouble and yet still won the race virtually in the bridle. There’s no surprise that the handicapper has whacked him with a 9lb rise in the weights for that win but even that I don’t think is enough to stop him given how he went through that race and considering connections thought he always had the class to be a group horse. He’s proven over this CD, technically 2lb better off with Glen Buck for their meeting a couple of runs back, arrives in excellent form, has been targeted at this race and I just think he’s got more ability than his rivals in this field. He’ll be tough to beat.

    16:50 at Lingfield VOCAL LEGEND @ 11/2 generally, 0.5pts ew (4 places)

    I liked how well Backspin won on handicap debut but he’s a little too short in the betting for what looks a pretty competitive contest so I’ve sided with Vocal Legend (13/2 at time of writing) for Charlie Hills. This horse has been doing well this winter, a distant 2nd over 7f at this track in November on just his second start and then was 2nd over 7f again at Kempton behind a next time out winner who was runner up at Newmarket yesterday off 84. He was found a nice opportunity last time out at Southwell dropping to 6f and he won the 5 runner novice in easy fashion. He moves into a handicap today off a mark of just 75 and judged on that Kempton form from a couple of runs back, that looks a lenient mark. He’s nicely bred out of a listed winning mare who was mainly kept to 5f sprinting and he’s by Dark Angel who gets plenty of top sprinters. Judging by that mainly 5f & 6f pedigree, it’s interesting that last time out was his first try at sprinting and he handled it well albeit that was at a slightly stiffer galloping track. He remains completely unexposed as a sprinter, the track shouldn’t be any problem (ran ok here over further), he could well be on a lenient mark for this handicap debut and will surely have plenty more to come now going handicapping off the foot of the weights in this contest. I like him a lot for the Hills team who have been in fine form.



Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,304 ✭✭✭del roy


    40/1 2nd and 9/2 winner from



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,304 ✭✭✭del roy


    20/1 winner 9/1 winner and a 9/2 winner as well as the 40/1 2nd.



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