Is it a bad idea to buy nvidia, Tesla,msft,google shares now?

Ubbquittious

These are still being hyped a lot on reddit and various news sites but if you start investing now have you missed the boat?

Nody

First mistake; you listen to what other hype out instead of reviewing them yourself; second mistake, FOMO. If you can't judge yourself the value and direction of trends, mega trends, future expected value etc. you should really not do stock trading and instead invest in broader funds because if not you'll be lead around by the nose and always be late to the party.

Having said that, of the four listed I'd only consider one of them because the other three have significant headwind coming (or have already arrived) their way and I'm not up enough on the fourth to recommend an investment. It's not exactly new news what the issues are for the companies either…

antimatterx

I like Tesla but they're the riskiest for me. Nvidia is a good company, they probably will grow but this rally had been insane.

I like Google and Microsoft the most. I'm buying some every month.

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122618276#Comment_122618276

The chances of a random person having a genuine insight into a random company in a random industry which is not reflected in the broader market (and already incorporated into the current price) is almost infinitesimal. That's not to say they can't be right or get lucky. It might be that the risk the randomer didn't realise was even there just never materialised.

Nody

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122618396#Comment_122618396

Oh I fully agree; chances of a random person having unique insight that the market in general does not is infinitesimally small. However if you want to buy individual stocks you need to have enough knowledge of the company in general, it's overall market, future expected earnings, forecast, trends / mega trends impacting it etc. to make an (relatively) informed decision on the long term viability of the company. Trying to base investments on "hot on reddit" or "twitter account X" is not an investment; it's being asked to buy what people want to sell you at an inflated price (and I have people who've done that; AMC at $50 being a bargain as they saw it on a youtube video etc.). If you don't have the time/effort/knowledge to do said research then in my view buying direct stocks is not the right choice but rather broader funds that handle it for you (which would cover around 80%+ of people at a guess).

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122618483#Comment_122618483

People are susceptible to plenty of biases. Even in the example you gave there will be anchoring bias. If you believe in any form of efficient market hypothesis then you will just index. Not great long term in Ireland for obvious tax reasons. I'd put the percentage at higher than 80%. Would you be confident in calculating an intrinsic value for NVDA and then adding in some additional on top of that? Even in the industry, there will always be an element of matrix pricing and marking to market. Granted, it is not done by reference to some pump-and-dump wannabe loon on TikTok.

There are of course some inefficiencies in reality, but the chances of the average punter hitting them are more luck than anything. On the other hand, even if something is overvalued in every sense of the word, people can still make money. Go luck at the crypto forum and see the cultish belief and confirmation biases. Survivorship bias there too.

If you don't index, at least diversify

lau1247

NVDA and MSFT would be high risk high reward category.. TSLA is probably one to avoid, CEO, underdelivered promises and competition.. GOOG is probably in the fair value category from your list.

Could have a look at DOCU and ZM for long term.

antimatterx

None of these mag7 stocks are anywhere close to high risk high reward. If anything they're low risk, OK reward.

HGVRHKYY

Depends on your timeframe but it's interesting seeing people saying to avoid tsla with everything they've planned into the future across various sectors; are people still under the impression it's just a car manufacturer? Even with just their cars, their planned autonomous vehicles will eventually be a big residual earner for them (individuals and businesses like taxi companies will buy the cars and pay for the FSD subscriptions/updates.) Things will hopefully get crazy when it comes to their robots though, I think that'll be a major market in the future and again, they'll likely lease them out for income generation (probably 5-10 years from them really taking off). Musk is just one person in the equation, people should disregard him and look beyond him, his companies are operated by other actually smart, talented people who are driving major changes and promising tech, you'll see these things slowly build up and seemingly suddenly take off.

somenergy

US stock market is up 20% so there are opportunities to make money my main holding is nvda it's a great company and lot of growth coming in 2025 with its new Blackwell modules in full production.

There are good options I don't like teasla because Elon is not to be trusted

I have been in amazon a fantastic company looking for a dip in oct to reenter.

Plenty more like Microsoft and Google

Time your entry on a dip and dyor

Zascar

Have a watch of these:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WDYJE9_bHUw

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YIpVM_uGLW0

Tesla has more upside than anyone as long as you are in it for 5-10 years

HGVRHKYY

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122856200#Comment_122856200

Exactly, TSLA was at $260 when I made that last comment, and it's hit $350 since then, compared with MSFT and GOOG which were recommended in that other person's comment and have performed fairly poorly in comparison. People are really clouding their judgement with their dislike of Musk, which is a ridiculous approach to investing; he is just one guy, he is obviously a prick but his companies are made up of top tier engineers, all buying into the visions set by his companies and all vying to contribute towards achieving them. You're not betting on Musk, you're betting on these people who are striving to create breakthroughs in various industries (Tesla is NOT just a car company like a lot of idiots still somehow seem to think). Musk is also close with Trump (DO NOT MISINTERPRET THIS AS ME ADMIRING OR LIKING EITHER) and all one needs to do is simply refer to the upward trends that occurred during Trump's previous term - I'm betting on similar happening again.

This should hopefully easily be a $1,000+ stock over this decade.

Infoseeker1975

I am definitely not an expert; my approach is when I have excess money is to invest in the stock market, usually buy in trances of €2.5k.

I look at diversification in terms of industry, currency and do I think the company will exist in 10 years. If I invested in 10 companies then I would be happen if after 10 years that 7 still exist/are listed!!

I plan to keep all holdings for 10+ years; only exception is to use €1,270 annual exemption to sell a small % so I do not pay any CGT & if one holding becomes a much higher percentage in relation to overall holding [nice problem when it happens!!].

This is only with money that I do not need in the short term [next 5 years] and I have a rainy day fund in place.

somenergy

Nvidia is up 213% v tesla 61% (most or all from a trump bounce)

MS, Google Amazon have less exposure to this.

I made money on tsla in 2020 but the last 4 years of over promising and under delivering Have made me less bullish on it.

The mag 7 will continue to be reliable lower risk investments.

Musk and Trump partnership will be as good as it lasts for the stock.

My current portfolio is up 95% 2024 so I don't have anything to prove.

marathonic

A lot of people look at NVDA and say "it's up over 2500% in 5 years so must be overvalued."

For some reason, many don't account for the massive increase in earnings over that time. Earnings rose by about the same percentage as the underlying shares.

High growth, high margins, shares are always expected to be more risky so NVDA is far from a surefire winner versus the market as a whole. However, don't ignore the fundamentals and focus solely on the meteoric rise in share price when trying to determine whether it's overshot the runway.

j62

Google is one I’m most bullish on out of this lot

• right now the AI boom is almost all hardware but we seen with internet boom that it’s software not hardware where long term profits lie and google has a lot of the brains
• Waymo
• They are also leaders in quantum computing

Then Microsoft then Apple

I bailed out of Palantir (nice profit but way overpriced now) and wouldn’t touch Tesla with a long stick they just not worth every other car company combined and there’s competition from China

NVDA I’m staying out of, as i don’t want FOMO to drive my investment decisions (tho wow some insane real world earnings there) just feels too much like Cisco did

instead focusing on AMD, exited tsmc and Broadcom with nice nice earnings, picked up some intel at very bottom (and sitting in green) as they won’t be permitted to fail