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Detailed breakdown of election results

  • 23-03-2024 12:08pm
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 231 ✭✭


    Is there any way to get more detailed breakdown of votes by area within constituencies?

    For example, Dublin Bay North, has a good mix of people and economic backgrounds so might be an interesting one to dig into.

    We can see the votes assigned to each candidate by the overall constituency but is there data on votes by smaller area available?

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dublin_Bay_North_(D%C3%A1il_constituency)



Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 71,170 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Actual votes - no

    Tallies - maybe, generally only shared in detail with the parties that supplied talliers. These are estimated first preference votes only.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,422 ✭✭✭✭the_amazing_raisin


    Since voting is anonymous, then it's unlikely you'll get a breakdown of voting by area. In theory you can only infer it by people's stated voting intentions. Of course they can always lie, maybe all the devoted Fianna Fail supporters are secretly voting for PBP

    You could potentially use the ballot boxes to figure it out, they're numbered by area so if you knew the numbering system and the tallies per box then you could figure it out

    However, it's quite likely that the counting officers take steps to obscure the tallies per box. You might have seen pictures of several boxes being poured onto a table and the ballot sheets mixed up. I'm pretty sure this is partly to help voter anonymity

    Probably the only semi accurate measurements would be exit polls (or pre election polling) where people are asked who they voted for after voting. These are run by polling organisations and not by the electoral commission

    There's always going to be some errors with this, they can't capture every voter even if there's surveyors at every polling station

    In any case, voters aren't obliged to answer the questions, and surveyors don't necessarily ask about the voters background

    Final issue is GDPR, polling companies will probably be unwilling to just hand out voter information unless you have some sort of data sharing agreement

    "The internet never fails to misremember" - Sebastian Ruiz, aka Frost



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,836 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    There is a guy who has a site where you can search a map of Ireland and zoom into Polling Station level results from the last election. I haven't looked at it in years. I believe he used detailed tally results to drive it. I remember learning from it that Alan Kelly got elected in Tipperary purely on a large number of votes in his electoral stronghold (around Nenagh) and pretty much nowhere else.


    Unfortunately I cannot remember what it was called but perhaps this might jog someone else's memory.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,139 ✭✭✭✭expectationlost




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,139 ✭✭✭✭expectationlost


    https://www.facebook.com/profile/100041631439460/search/?q=dublin%20bay%20north



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