Potential Easterly 10th March -->?

Kermit.de.frog

There is one last possibility at this time of year for cold and snow.

That is that extremely cold air is evicted from the north in to the continent and then the west toward us.

There are solid indications that this could happen but it depends on a lot of variables going right.

I think there is enough to open a thread for discussion.

Let's see what happens.

koutoubia

Was watching on the YT channel 'Weather Watcher' and they think that an unusual high in central Russia moving westwards could push banks of cold air down towrads us.

Dare we even mention the Beast word.......

typhoony

Certainly a possibility but it could be we just miss out and the cold air stays just to the east of us, also I think this week will be a little milder than the forecasters are predicting.

Leg End Reject

Here's hoping for a red alert and time off work. 🤞 🙏 😀

sparrowcar

If anyone else opened this thread at 7 days with the winter of disappointment we've had in Dublin then I'd ignore.

Kermit calling it as "strong indications" is making me kiddy.... Kermit you absolute tramp.

pauldry

Looked at CFS in January and March looked a lot colder than February then but haven't looked at it since. Seems likely an Easterly will be in place in a week but whether its mild or cold is open to question still.

Checked GFS though and it was that low going more North now so the milder air wins on the current run. Tweaks likely before March 10th though.

Meteorite58

Very much in FI I would have thought........a long way off, mixed bag of conditions , no great cold showing by any model , ECM showing a hint of possible Easterlies right out at the end of the run moving into Europe but not even reaching Ireland, GFS switching more to milder weather from the 10th...... a slow burner probably best thought of in in FI for now.

Robwindstorm

I would have thought a harsh easterly in March is typically expected. It helps dry the land (apart from last year) and is sometimes mixed with wintery showers. Hopefully this year March is 'in like a lion and out like a lamb'.

JVince

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121844891#Comment_121844891

I won't believe it until the daily mail runs a headline 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣😀😀😀

JanuarySnowstor

Good ecm tonight, and the mean follows suit. All to play for but chances are a little less this evening

sparrowcar

BBC's 10 day forecast not buying it. They have a low pushing warm air up from the south east keeping temps up.

JanuarySnowstor

The latest Icon has much stronger heights over Scandinavia. Certainly keeps the interest going

pureza

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121846638#Comment_121846638

I'm not a fan of meteogroup's output

pureza

This overnight GEM would certainly blast the east coast with snow shower trains were it to verify

That is one Shivering direct unimpeded source of air

This is T+7 days- next Monday

SouthWesterly

From the 14th of march to Easter will be warm and dry....I'm off for the few weeks and Ive work to do in the veg garden. 😁

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121849898#Comment_121849898

Is that a long range forecast or wishful thinking?

Gonzo

At the moment the models are not very exciting, the coming 2 to 3 weeks looks very average and unsettled most of the time. Temperatures around average or a little below at times. No real sign of any proper cold weather or mild/warm weather either. No real sign in the models of the weather becoming dryer either, just a continuation of mostly Atlantic domination.

SouthWesterly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121849923#Comment_121849923

Once it's reality over my little bit of land 😁

mcburns07

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121849948#Comment_121849948

Make it stop 😪

cute geoge

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121849898#Comment_121849898

you wont get much done unless there is a dramatic change away from the rain

SouthWesterly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121850318#Comment_121850318

Rain is not an option 😱

compsys

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121849948#Comment_121849948

It's pretty standard March weather though, isn't it?

At this time of the year it's usually too late for proper snow and too early for proper warmth. Especially for the East.

I'd prefer for some boring weather in March (and on the other end November) if it means more seasonal weather in a few weeks' time.

Hopefully things pick up as we head a bit further into spring.

US3

What is the point of this thread?

sdanseo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121854152#Comment_121854152

I think we may be clutching at straws now alright. ICON was the only model really calling for anything.

Uppers just aren't there now and they don't really improve after the 120hr frame.

typhoony

Unfortunately there's now very little support for an easterly, if the thread had been called potential south westerly 10th onwards it would have been nailed on to materialise

Gonzo

This was never much support for this in the first place, just a few rogue outliers on the Icon and GFS, the sort of charts we post on the FI +384 hours thread the ones that rarely verify. At this stage we are probably done chasing winter charts until next December unless something exceptional happens out of nowhere in the models over the next few days at short notice.

As for me I've already switched on the Spring and Summer hat in search of prolonged high pressure and warmer weather.

nacho libre

There could be a late sting in the tail with the impacts from the reversal of the Zonal Winds atop.

It wouldn't surprise me if we see a cold second half of March, but it would have to be top drawer stuff to deliver at that stage. It's more likely we will just have nuisance cold- cold rain from it.

Elmer Blooker

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121855433#Comment_121855433

no sign of an easterly when it looked likely a few days ago, it was also looking like a very wet March in Spain (-NAO) but that too is unlikely. Drought conditions there are going to get even more serious if they don’t get a wet spring.

Gonzo

There's no sign of cold anywhere in Europe over the next 2 weeks, it's locked right up over the artic and looks like it's going to stay there. We have an easterly right now with no cold to tap into and then the Atlantic comes back later next week.

All the predictions of a very cold and blocked January then February and now March have been a monumental bust and we came within a hairs breath of warmest February for almost 400 years since the CET records began. I think parts of central Europe had their warmest February on record which also beat their warmest March on record so something went very wrong with the modeling over the winter.

The cold snap middle of January and the chilly final few days of February with the leap year thrown in is probably saved the winter as a whole from being the warmest on record.

As for Spain they usually get stormy weather end of March and April, sometimes start of May can be very unsettled for them too.

Heading into next winter it's going to be interesting to see how the winter forecasts are put together because most of the drivers that gets talked about in the run up to every winter completely failed to deliver and the weather gods had different ideas. It will be a very safe bet to bet on another mild and Atlantic driven winter next year. We will eventually get another cold winter but the gaps are getting longer every time.

Billcarson

Warmest Feb on record globally following on from record Jan globally. In parts of Europe Feb came in up to 7 or 8c above normal. Waiting on the first 50c recorded in Europe this coming summer........new regime.

gerrybhoy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121864734#Comment_121864734

Don't be saying that about Spain,I'm off to Marbella for the Easter break 🤦‍♂️😂