Ryanair fluctuating fares, when to book?

acequion

I'm sure anybody here who frequently leaves Ireland is well aware of the casino that is Ryanair. While we always made a sport of hunting for the best bargain, in recent times with frighteningly soaring prices in everything, bargain hunting has become a necessity.

I'm posting because I made two bookings just after Christmas. One for Easter and one for June and now just 3 weeks later both trips have come right down in price. One flight, Shannon to Malta at Easter, is a whopping €58 cheaper than when I booked. Last year I got caught out as I booked closer to departure when fares were going crazy, so this year I booked well in advance and now here they are dropping and a considerable drop at that. Can't win.😩

Any ideas on any trends about when to book? Sickening to lose a lot of money like that. In the total of two round trips the two of us lost about €160 [combined]. I wonder if better to wait closer to departure? Or could it be that less people are travelling with cost of living so high that prices are starting to drop? Or could it be that everyone rushed to book post Christmas and now there are bargains? Like I say both our flights are for high season so I find such a fast drop very surprising.

At the very least I think it's good to have a thread on price fluctuations so that people can share their experiences and maybe give tips.

wench

You can put your planned trip in here, and see how the fares are predicted to go

https://www.airhint.com/

acequion

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121643024#Comment_121643024

Thanks for that, didn't know that site. How reliable is it?

wench

I haven't used it that much, but so far it has been accurate.

Some flights I'm looking at for this summer were €85/per person before xmas when I started looking. It suggested waiting, and they're down to €62 now.

Edit just dropped to €55!

grimm2005

I don't think anyone really knows what the algorithm is when it comes to knowing when exactly is the best time to book but I've found generally 6 - 4 weeks before tends to be a sweet point, granted this was more applicable pre-covid, I find it's a bit more random now.

I would say a general rule of thumb is if you're booking a very popular resort type place during high season (summer and when kids are off school), you're probably not going to get much cheaper the closer to the flight and it's probably riskier to wait it out. The more flexible you are with dates helps massively as well, but if you're going for an event and you have fixed dates, I'd probably tend to just get it booked unless its a destination with loads of daily flights and competition from other airlines.

I find if you are pretty much 100% flexible in dates and also destination and are open to going anywhere really and off season, you'll find some brilliant deals, particularly if you're happy to travel light as the priority addon can also vary wildly for both legs of the flight and can really increase the overall cost. Last week I was looking at flights for the last weekend in February for example for a potential trip for me and some friends and there were tonnes of places on the continent for €30 to €60 return. Google Flights is very handy for price tracking also if your dates and destination are fairly fixed, you can get email updates any time the price changes for your selected dates.

I think really you just have to buy at a price you're comfortable with and hope for the best. Ryanair are probably the most random with it but it happens with all the airlines, I booked a trip to NYC with Aer Lingus for April recently and thought I did well at €360 return but about 2 weeks later it came down to €280 return 😕 You win some, you lose some!

irelandrover

The popular destinations tend not to fluctuate too much in my experience.

Others I'd say between 2-4 months is the best time to book.

To be honest, when you get a price you are happy with then just book and never look at the price again.

Banzai600

we've been having the same issue and talking to family and friends they are the same....

OR, the flight out is cheap and coming back its a rip off, of else vise versa, this seems to be quite common.. Ryanairs flights are defo getting more pricey.

in Dec i looked at one destination airport italy, for one person going out only it was 347 euro !!!!!!!!!! FFS ! Obviously didnt book. in saying that now the prices have dropped by around 140 euro on this same outing, but still not cheap enough for me one way.

We dont have kids so we can fly at our leisure re dates / locations etc, and just use 10kg bags always, and check them in - cant be dealing with the carry on of bags in the cabin, i seriously dont know why ppl bother. on shorter haul flights 2/3hrs now we dont book seats either. Sounds tight, maybe, but i wouldnt give them the money and it doesnt really phase us.

ppl who are finding the low flights are getting lucky, we cant seem to get them. must keep trying.

but as said above, only pay what you are comfortable with.

ive no problem not going if i think its too dear. maybe i will start looking at aer lingus again.

we use ryanair a lot, but theyre starting to milk it, paying 450/500 pe person to italy return is a rip for example. its not like they aint making money !

https://corporate.ryanair.com/news/ryanair-reports-strong-half-year-profits-of-e2-18bndue-to-record-summer-trafficfull-year-pat-of-e10-per-pax-likely-e400m-div-declared/

acequion

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121690388#Comment_121690388

Completely agree with everything here. Ryanair are indeed starting to rip people off and like you, I will not go if they're charging too much. Even if I can afford it, I'm just not willing to be ripped off to sit for a few hours in a tin box. By too much, I've seen one way fares to Alicante for €400. Like seriously, will people really pay that!! I booked to Alicante in June, didn't book luggage, but if I change my mind and want to check in a 10 kg bag I'll pay €60 for the privilege round trip! The trend of rip off fares on the return leg has only come in since Covid. It's price gouging, imo, as most people who book to go to places like Alicante, Faro and Malaga are Irish people looking for a sun escape and they have to come back.

Ok, rant over, but we really are paying for being an island nation and an island nation with limited competition. I get where people say you should book with what you are comfortable paying and then stop looking. Why torture ourselves indeed and up to now, I haven't. But I will be retiring in the not too distant future, want to travel more, won't be able to afford exorbitant fares, so need to start watching trends. Hence this thread.

bikeman1

As someone who has over 200 Ryanair flights, my general experience is from Ireland.

Two distinct markets - UK and further afield.

UK: Once on sale. High price, gets the worriers booking 10 years in advance for a bus ride to Leeds. Say €40-€60. Then they drop to cheap about 2 months out, and this is the cheapest they will be. BOOK BOOK BOOK. Then they start the upward journey and increase continuously. Sometimes a week out, they have a quiet drop to mega cheap during the week. Then in the days before sky rocket to €200+ to screw last minute bookers who have to travel.

Further afield: This is like a wave. As above, once on sale high price. Then they go down. People start saying ohh I'll go to Spain in June. Have a look and see that the flights are cheap. Then in the classic 5-2 months out, they increase rapidly. They then drop again, increase again. Drop one last time often a few days out on some routes. These are like a few seats left on a random flight to say Malta or Split, where the return is massive numbers or vice versa. It will be cheap one way out of Ireland to get you on and you justify the return being silly prices.

Finally, if you see a price and you know it is very cheap (like I did twice this week) book book book. If you can sort out the other things in life after like annual leave or dog kennels or hotels etc. then that's the way to go.

If you can be flexible, you will win big time.

acequion

@bikeman1 Excellent points there, thanks so much. I'm heading on a trip to the UK the week of the Feb school midterm, booked 3 months ago, reasonable but not cheap. Haven't tortured myself by looking since but what the betting I could have got a better deal! The Malta trip at Easter had to get booked just after Xmas as I'm travelling with a rather anxious person who wanted it booked, so fair enough, though both outgoing and return fares came down after. My big mistake was booking the trip to Alicante for June in December. Will never get caught like that again, it went right down to the fares of a few years ago which I wasn't expecting. But last year I booked nearer the time and got caught as well. It really is a gamble. I think flexible dates and perhaps travel off peak would help hugely in getting a decent deal.

Padraig Mor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121690388#Comment_121690388

Re their profits - they actually announced the other day a 93% drop in profits for Q4 2023, to a relatively measly €15 million. Surprised it didn't make more waves.

Banzai600

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121700951#Comment_121700951

yeah, i agree.

we have been looking at multiple destinations when looking at fares for the same calendar dates, give or take a day. , a bit like hedging our bets i suppose with best value fares.

irish ppl are great at moaning about stuff but do little voting with their feet, we i suppose would not go to the sun if it was just that bit too dear.

There needs to be a happy medium and as it most businesses now, you and me, the customer / consumer feels like the one having to service industries, not the other way round - business have lost sight of who the customer is, without a doubt. they'll all gouge until the well runs dry as usual.

One of the trips we had lined up we booked with ryanair, we ended up with aer lingus, ryanairs loss, moving fares around , its like theyre gambling against you. And i think im being smart enough with cookies and web history etc to avoid them tracking me.

whispering1

Going to Malaga from Cork in April. Aer Lingus a good bit cheaper and 10kg included on top of that. A friend was telling it is the same for Cork Faro in September. Best deals with Ryanair tend to be in January and November.

Living Off The Splash

Just be careful about booking too far in advance with Ryanair.

Ryanair changed my flight times and they don't suit me | Askaboutmoney.com - the Irish consumer forum

beachhead

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121689492#Comment_121689492

The same

zell12

Ryanair said their fares will rise this year

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/feb/26/ryanair-aircraft-problems-could-push-summer-fares-up-boeing

acequion

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121831588#Comment_121831588

I wonder if that's to prepare us for more price gouging and to get the panic buyers to book quickly?? When I opened this thread I was bemoaning that I'd lost a fair bit in two bookings where fares went down significantly. They've gone back up now but not massively, so I obviously did book too early. I've ben looking at the Kerry to Alicante route for the summer months, the most convenient for me. Crazy high fares at the moment, dropping significantly in September so go figure! I will be doing some travelling in July /August so will have to be very savvy about booking. It's a huge gamble. The obvious problem is us being an island nation, a prosperous one where people like to and can afford to go on breaks and demand clearly exceeding supply. Will people continue to travel if fares go through the roof?

Another issue, imo, is the ridiculous hour of some flights. My return from Alicante this year departs at 8am, necessitating being at the airport for 6am at latest, necessitating an approx 4am wake up as most resorts are 30 mins and more away from the airport. Time was when these unsociable hours flights were the cheap ones, now they're exorbitant. Another issue there is that there is no public transport at these hours, so unless you have a car at your holiday resort you have to fork out another considerable sum for a private airport transfer. And even where you have rented a car there is often a supplement for dropping it back out of office hours. All adding significantly to costs.

People may think I'm just having a rant here, but all the above just proves how overall services have deteriorated in recent times along with crazy price hikes. The day of the customer being king are long gone unfortunately.

gossamerfabric

airhint.com and avoid booking at end of month on payday.

tourist destinations in south of europe are expensive because they know that they can fill the planes. The bargains are to be found for city trips.

No bargains far out from date of travel and no bargains a day or two in advance of flight. one to two months in advance is usually optimal.

Ryanair Fare Finder under Plan on their website is great.

Inforapenny

Created an alert on AirHint for a flight, didnt receive any notification that my request has been registered, I presume they will just email me when the flight price changes?

Thanks

xper

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121773386#Comment_121773386

All airlines do this. I’ve had times changed with Aer Lingus, KLM and American in the last year, all slightly detrimental but not deal breaking as it happened. It’s a risk you just have to factor in with booking a good deal far in advance

JohnCleary

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121869298#Comment_121869298

Have had Etihad change DAYS of flights (DUB-BKK), nevermind times! We were flying J and not sure if that made a difference but they either offered alternatives, or full refund. We worked with it (actually made our holiday longer!), but the dose was that we like a few hours in the lounge, whereas on the way back we only had a 2 hour layover so only managed a quick drink in the lounge (4 hour layover is ideal for us to have a bit of craic in the lounges)