Is there no armed resistance in Iran?

political analyst

This report, which was on News at Ten (ITV) last night, is about Iranian protesters who have been blinded by their country's security forces.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Yot02JNwI8

The people who protested after the murder of Mahsa Amini had no means of fighting back.

Is there no Iranian guerrilla group that has a realistic chance of retaliating against the Iranian government?

Are there no Iranian soldiers willing to turn their guns on the regime?

Does Iran not have an equivalent of Claus von Stauffenberg?

igCorcaigh

Perhaps the good people of Iran do not want to turn their country into another Syria.

L.Ball

Is there no Irish guerrilla group that has a realistic chance of retaliating against the Irish government?

Are there no Irish soldiers willing to turn their guns on the regime?

Does Ireland not have an equivalent of Claus von Stauffenberg?

Gregor Samsa

maybe take a look here:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category%3AMilitant_opposition_to_the_Islamic_Republic_of_Iran

Montage of Feck

A lot of those organisations took part in the revolution. Their fate should be lesson to socialists of what happens when the left gets into bed with Islamic fundamentalism.

igCorcaigh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121504541#Comment_121504541

Same goes for the Western Imperialist powers.

chuchuchu

The men have it better there than the women so why would they bother. Same with the Taliban take over of Afghanistan.

riffmongous

There are quite a few armed groups, but they tend to be localised and looking for local independence only, or they are involved in the trade and then again just regionalised near the border areas

Danzy

A few smaller groups based on minority ethnic demands.

Problem is that the majority are supportive of or not that bothered by the current regime in Iran.

bnt

I think it's widely known in Iran that the regime has plenty of money for weapons, so much that they are sending some weapons back to Russia, as well as supplying weapons to Shi'a groups in the region such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis in Yemen. Civilian gun ownership stats are understandably hard to come by, and I see anecdotal stories that many civilians in rural areas have unregistered weapons, including automatic weapons.

But to go up against a very strong state military operation would be insane: in a coup you'd want the military on your side, and the regime know this. They are pretty ruthless when it comes to policing the loyalty of the top brass, and some have even been accused of spying for Israel. (Which is not out of the question, if reports like this are any guide.)

Beta Ray Bill

Are there no Iranian soldiers willing to turn their guns on the regime?

It's only a "regime" if you don't like the way things are being run.

Iran is one of those countries that's very difficult to wage war in because of the terrain. That same terrain has caused huge variation in the ethnicity of the country as a whole. This in turn means over throwing a government there would be near impossible. For example the Qasqais may decide to attempt a coup, but unless they get buy in from the Lurs, Balochs and Azeris they'll achieve nothing. And those guys are not likely to help as they don't really like each other.

Most people that live there are mostly happy most of the time, and as a government, that's all you have to achieve.

Iran itself is waging a proxy war against Saudi Arabia, that it's winning. Iran (a Shia country) gave Hamas (a Sunni Palestinian movement) a heap of weapons to conduct that attack a few months back knowing that Israel would respond in disproportionately. This is turn blocks Saudi Arabia (a Sunni country) recognizing Israel (as many other Arab countries have finally done in the last few years). That then in turn blocks any alliance of Israel and Saudi Arabia against Iran.

Iran's Foreign policy game is so on point at the moment that the ITV doc above looks like grade A propaganda, as normally countries with major internal strife put FP operations on the back burner.

In a nutshell, Shia = Religious leaders govern the country, Sunni = Kings/Royalty/Military General govern the country

Gatling

Seems someone blew up a drone/munitions factory in Tehran earlier

Montage of Feck

There are so many levels to the middle east conflict, top tier being Shia vs Sunni, then you've got rival royal families, the clash between socialist Arab nationalism and Islamic conservatism, various ethic minorities and religions then combine all that centuries of imperial control and meddling. It's just an incomprehensible mess.

thereiver

https://www.economicsobservatory.com/what-are-the-big-economic-challenges-facing-the-government-in-iran

the chances of an armed revolution is unlikely ,theres various ethnic and religious groups in iran, theres high inflation,basic goods food are expensive.

https://www.iranintl.com/en/202212111841 i think it would take another war with another country like the usa to cause any regime change in iran.

iran is using various proxy groups to attack american forces and the houthis attack ships in the red sea .they supply arms, missiles and train various proxys to attack israel .the drones and missiles the houthis use are becoming more advance and powerful .

i think trump will likely win the usa election ,eg partly because biden,s policys on sending billions of dollars worth of weapons to israel are not popular with most young people .bidens policy of total support for israel makes no sense as its leading to the deaths of 1000s, of civilians in gaza including children and journalists .

iran is very ruthless when attacking protestors or any independent group which is in favor of humans rights .theres, no iranian equivalent of sinn fein or the ira in iran.

there,s no independent free press or radio stations in iran that can hold the government to account .

every few years there seems to be a wave of protests against the religious police which die out .Saudia arabia has been bombing the houthis, for years with little effect.since october 7th the war in the middle east has made iran stronger as it encourages its proxys to attack american troops and the houthi,s can attack ships using cheap drones and missiles it gets from iran.America looks weak as it cannnot even get israel to declare a ceasefire as the government is run by right wing religious fanatics. i think theres, more chance of regime change in russia as the cost of war increases and young people are forced to join the army .i dont send any positive end to the war in gaza, unless biden just decides to stop supplying weapons and bombs to israel and force them to declare a ceasefire .

TheValeyard

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121515946#Comment_121515946

Shame. Be a pity if it happened again....

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121692945#Comment_121692945

Watch this space.....

beeker1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058327195/is-there-no-armed-resistance-in-iran

Zero chance ! The government backs Hizbollah, Hamas & the Houthis ! Since they're Shia in a Sunni world it's pretty much a case of waiting for the demise of those crazy mullahs etc who run the place ! We had our own enforcer back in the day , John Charles McQuaid ! People power eventually wins and archaic allegiances fizzle out ! Then the business of just getting on with life begins !

lumphammer2

Iran is currently ruled by the far right Paydari .... basically handed power by the far right Tea Party Republicans when their puppet Trump withdrew from the JCPOA back in 2018 ... make no mistake about it the West esp under hardliners like the Tea Party want Iran ruled by these types with an option to go to war with them .... every time Iran had a moderate the West under hardliners knocked them down ... think 'Axis of Evil' speech as well as withdrawal from JCPOA ... Paydari's biggest pals are the Tea Party Republicans and giant braindead teddy bears like Trump ....

The Iranian people deserve better and will one day get it ... when the far right in the West destroy themselves .... the proper Iran saw off many evil empires and it will again ... the West hate a moderate Iran because Iran ruled by intelligent people would overtake them .... Iran ruled by Paydari would not overtake a cr@p in a toilet ...

Peregrinus

There are strong memories in Iraq of the Iran-Iraq war from 1980-88, which lasted for 8 years and cost between 1 and 2 million lives, and in which abolutely bugger all was acheived on either side. So they have a realistic appreciation of how armed conflict can be both immensely destructive and utterly useless at actually effecting any change.

Plus, they've seen what happened in their near neighbour Iraq since 2003 so they know that, however ghastly things may seem now, they can get much, much worse when armed groups start competing for control of government.

In short, it's entirely possible and rational for an Iraqi to believe that their government is an appalling one and also to believe that attempts to resist it by force are more likely to make things much worse than they are to make things better.

It's ironic that the OP mentions Claus von Stauffenberg. Von Stauffenberg was virtuous and heroic and admirable, but his actions illustrate the weakness of the instinct to resist tyranny by force; he acheived nothing. If an Iranian wants to work to change things in Iran and he considers the example of von Stauffenberg, the rational conclusion he should draw is "yeah, better do something else".