Today's Free Tips come from Rendlesham Racing

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Today's Free Tips come from Rendlesham Racing

Prices correct at the time of sending this morning

14:15 at Newmarket SHINING JEWEL @ 2/1 generally, 1pt win

When I seem to fancy a Appleby/Buick/Godolphin horse it always seems to really underperform but I just can’t get away from their filly in here, Shining Jewel, who was very impressive last time out. This daughter of Siyouni has only had 3 career starts to date but it’s fair to say she was quite a let down in both her first two runs. She was well fancied on debut at Nottingham over the extended mile last year but could only finish 3rd and was beaten 2L. There was promise there but she showed real signs of greenness, missing the break, never really travelling and was a little one paced until getting the hang of things close to home. She wasn’t seen again for another 205 days and returned with a poor run over 1m2f at Newbury, beaten 18L and never looking likely to get involved. Following that big defeat she underwent a wind-op and was given more time to mature and that seemed to do the trick.

Her last run was at Chelmsford on the all-weather over a mile. She won the 6 runner race, getting the better of Fakhama by 4L. She was slightly awkward out the stalls again but soon recovered and came across to lead. She set solid fractions, quickened the pace up with 3f to go and stole a length on the field before powering home impressively up the straight. That was a very smart performance and yet she still showed little signs of greenness at the start and even under pressure she carried her head high at times but my word did she quicken up and that’s something that’s been missing in her first couple of runs. If anything I thought she looked like she’d sharpen up even more for that run but the break and wind-op has clearly worked and with the likelihood of a further step forward with the run now under her belt, she could really kick on now. Admittedly the handicapper hasn’t taken any chances and given her an opening mark of 91 that just looks solely based on that last run but she’s very well bred and had been well thought of as she was sent off strong favourite for her first two runs so she ought to be capable off this mark. Personally I don’t think this looks the strongest of races and she’s the unexposed unknown in this field who is bred to be a listed/group filly so I’m more than happy to take a chance on her knowing that another bit of improvement on her last run would see her tough to stop here especially with the trainer and jockey in red hot form now.

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14:25 at Ayr ILLUSIONIST @ 28/1 generally, 0.5pts ew (6 places)

I’ve changed my mind on this race several times but one I have had on my shortlist constantly for this is Grant Tuer’s 6yr old, Illusionist, who looks like he’s been kept fresh for a big run in this at a big price (25/1 at the time of writing). This horse is 4-30 on turf in his career, although you do have to go back to May last year to find his last win which was in a 0-105 handicap at York over 5f, causing a big upset going in at 33/1. He returned from a 309 day absence at the start of this season and ran a huge race to finish 3rd in the Silver Sprint Trophy (0-105 handicap) at Ripon and was only beaten about a length. He ran a couple more very solid races in defeat during June/July, firstly in a 0-95 handicap over 6f at Haydock when beaten a little over 2L and then a very good 4th (beaten just over a length) in the Ayr Gold Cup Trial over this CD. I tipped him next time out in the Scottish Stewards Cup at Hamilton but he was far too keen for his own good and never looked right when well beaten but he did bounce back last time out.

His last run was at Haydock over 6f, in a 0-85 handicap on heavy ground. He finished 3rd of 7 runners, beaten a little over 5L by Dark Trooper. He was waited with towards the rear of the field but was slightly stuck out on a wing with little cover. He made some headway when pushed along inside the final 2f but never really quickened up and just kept on at the one pace. That was certainly more encouraging than his previous effort despite possibly not getting the best of positions for a horse that can over-race. Another big positive though from that race is that the winner is now 2-2 since and rated 101 (15lb higher than he was at Haydock) so he clearly just bumped into a very progressive and unexposed 3yr old who he had to give weight to. The handicapper has given the selection a chance by dropping a further 1lb to a mark of just 83 which is a career low mark and 5lb below his last winning mark. He’s a horse that can get very warm at the start and can over-race but the blinkers are on and interestingly he’s not been seen for 48 days and looking back through his form, his best runs have come when fresh, in fact his last three wins have come first time back from a break of 309 days, 199 days and 55 days. Off a career low mark, having been kept fresh specially for this and having gone so well under this jockey over CD a few starts back, he’s well worth a chance at a big price.

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15:05 at the Curragh CURRAHEEN PRINCESS @ 10/1 generally, 0.5pts ew (5 places)

Another wide open handicap but a chance is taken on the mare Curraheen Princess who certainly knows how to win races with a healthy 8-28 record and ran a blinder in this race 12 months ago to finish 2nd of 16 runners, beaten just a length by Gordon Bennett and she was very well backed favourite for that. She’s won twice this season with back to back successes coming at Down Royal and then Bellewstown. Since those two wins she’s been safely held but wasn’t beaten out of sight when 6th at both Cork and over this CD, the latter saw him beaten just over 3L and she’s now 5lb lower.

Her last run was at the Curragh over 6f. She finished 19th of 22 runners, beaten 16L by Big Gossey. She rested as the stalls opened and was slow away leaving her toward the rear of the field but quickly made up ground. She was pushed along over 2f from home and never picked up, soon losing her position and weakened quickly. That was a very below par effort but she was always up against it having to race from 4lb out the weights and over 6f (all wins have come over 5f). She’s dropped right down to a mark of just 79 today which is 2lb below her last winning and 5lb lower than when a good 2nd in this 12 months ago so she’s well handicapped now. The faster ground probably hasn’t suited in her last three runs but back on softer ground today should see her in better light, as will the drop in trip to the minimum 5f. Connections have reached for first time cheekpieces to sharpen her up and if they have the desired effect, she’s well handicapped and has conditions in her favour to run a very big race. Jockey Andrew Slattery takes the ride and he’s 2-3 onboard this mare.

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15:35 at Ayr MR WAGYU @ 14/1 generally, 0.5pts ew (6 places)

So many old favourites in here and I could pick half the field but one who looks far too big a price to ignore (14/1 at the time of writing) is John Quinn’s runner, Mr Wagyu, who’s had a typical busy season sprinting but undoubtedly this would’ve been one of, if the main target for him. This 8yr old certainly knows how to win having got his head infront 15 times in 77 races on turf and has a very good record in this race, albeit without winning it yet. He was 5th in this contest 12 months ago and was only 2L behind Summerghand but today races off a 9lb lower mark and is effectively 14lb better off at the weights with that rival. Admittedly this horse is yet to win this season but was beaten just a length in the Tokyo Trophy (0-105 handicap) at Epsom and was only a little over 2L behind in the Wokingham at Ascot. He ran a cracker when possibly not too well positioned in the Stewards Cup at Goodwood a few starts, finishing 4th of 27 runners but ran below form next time out but the good to firm ground probably was on the fast side for him.

His last run was at the Curragh in the Premier Sprint Handicap. He finished 3rd of 22 runners, beaten less than 2L by Big Gossey. He raced prominently behind the leaders towards the near side, he travelled very well and was one of the last off the bridle going into the final 2f. He lost a couple of positions but stuck on really well inside the final furlong to battle on again and finished well to narrowly miss out on 2nd. That was an excellent run in defeat with the front three pulling a little under 2L clear of the rest of the field. The sectionals show just how well he did to finish as well as he did as he was bang there on the speed and 7 of the first 9 home all came from midfield or towards the rear and yet looking at the sectionals he ran the last furlong in the 3rd quickest time. He’s been left on an unchanged mark of 95 which is the mark he’s ran off the last 4 times but it’s 5lb below his last winning mark so he’s well handicapped still. As I touched on earlier he also has a good record here at Ayr with form figures reading 1312535 and he’s ran in this race the last couple of years, finishing 3rd in 2021 (off 99) and 5th in 2022 (off 104) so he’s very well handicapped on both those previous efforts. The ground will be perfect, he goes well here, arrives on the back of a top effort last time out and well handicapped; there’s lots to like and he should run another big race.

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17:24 at Wolverhampton MOTAGALLY @ 12/1 generally, 0.5pts ew

This looked a pretty hot race for the grade to open the Wolverhampton card but one at a huge price who may well be overlooked is Scott Dixon’s runner, Motagally, who’d have to have a huge chance on his old form. This 7yr old has only had 34 career starts and only 9 of those have come on the all-weather but he boasts a solid 2-9 record off the turf. Admittedly you do have to go back to September 2020 to find his last win but since joining this stable his form hasn’t been very up and down. He ran well in defeat back in March over 7f at this track when 6th of 10 runners but he was only beaten just over 3L at 50/1 in a strong 0-95 handicap. He’s been well beaten in all bar one of his turf runs this season with that sole run coming in a big field 0-80 handicap at York back in May. He finished 2nd of 19 runners at 40/1, beaten just a length and recording his best RPR since September last year.

His last run was at York in a 0-80 handicap over 7f. He finished last of 17 runners, beaten nearly 26L by Quest For Fun. He was awkwardly away out the stalls and quickly took a very keen hold, pulling himself through to race with the leaders. He was pushed along some way from home and quickly lost position just over half way through the race. There’s not a lot that can be said about that run, it’s just one to completely put a line through. He’s been eased 2lb by the handicapper which now means he’s on a mark of just 75, his lowest mark since 2019 which was a 2L win. There’s no doubt he’s now very well handicapped as he was 5th in the Portland 12 months ago off a 17lb higher mark and 3lb below the mark he finished 2nd off back in May. Not only is he off this low mark, he’s also dropping down into class 5 for just the second time in his career (was beaten just over a length on the previous try). His record on the all-weather is solid, especially at this track as he’s 1-1 over CD and 2-3 here overall. His only try over this CD saw him record an RPR of 96 which, if he repeats that today, he will win this race. He’s been freshened up, drops in class, on a low mark, has a great record here; if he’s on a good day then he can play a big part at a big price.

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Good Luck!

Rendlesham Racing