The constituency formerly known as Dublin Fingal

jwwb

You might have noticed the smell of napalm this morning as Dublin Fingal got torched into Dublin Fingal West and Dublin Fingal East both 3 seaters.

Three sitting TDs in DFE Daragh O'Brien and Alan Farrell both based in Malahide and Duncan Smith based in Swords. Two in DFW Louise O'Reilly and Joe O'Brien.

My totally unscientific call in both 1 SF though not sure of candidate in DFE, 1 between FG and FF and 1 between Labour, Greens, SD etc with an outside chance of a FG or FF. Ideas on who is running and where?

In a 3 seater you need 25.00001% of the vote to get elected and 50.0001 to get two candidates across the line so don't see a second SF seat and not sure where FF and FG will pick up transfers from until one is eliminated.

koutoubia

If Louise O'Reilly runs a second candidate she should pull them home with transfers leaving 1 seat.

Just cant see Joe getting re-elected tbh so its gonna be a battle for the 3rd seat.

As for DFE: Are really expecting Darragh O'Brien to be re-elected? Given the geographically small size of the constituency it actually wouldnt surprise me.

Still amazed how Alan Farrell got re-elected last time.

the_amazing_raisin

Shouldn't this be in the politics forum?

I'm not surprised tbh, considering but the population growth in Fingal and the relative size compared to the other Dublin constituencies it was pretty inevitable

Larbre34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121046711#Comment_121046711

All politics is local.

jwwb

Permitted under the charter

billyhead

Regina Doherty might get in?

mactheknife19

People still vote on party lines , so OBrian and Farrell will get in because their party will only run 1 candidate so no chance of splitting the vote. The 3rd seat will be between Smith and SF. I’ve couldn’t pick Smith out in a line up and I think Labour have become a total non entity, but maybe in Swords he has the base. The SF candidate will be new, but you’d have to assume they will poll strong as a SF candidate rather than what they have done themselves. They could even parachute a “celebrity” candidate with no previous experience.

I read that DOB was on the committee that worked on this new set up, so I’m sure he has done the maths to ensure he has the numbers.

jwwb

If you are interested https://ianrichardson.shinyapps.io/GE2020_Results_redraw/ shows the results of the 2020 election with the boundaries redrawn.

DFW: SF 29.6% Independent (Tony Murphy): 15.7% FF: 14.25 GP:13.8% FG: 12.7% everyone else 5% and below

DFE: FF: 26.2% SF: 22.1% FG: 16.3% GP: 12% Labour: 8.1% everyone else 5% or lower

25.000001% is the quota...