2023 Hurricane Season

star gazer

 NOAA has a seventy percent confidence in the near normal prediction for their May 25th Outlook release. Will the speedy transition into an el Nino in the Pacific impact on the number and strength of Hurricanes this season? The extra heat in parts of the Atlantic could have a strengthening impact. Warm seas could also see

NOAA predicts a near-normal 2023 Atlantic hurricane season | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

 Ophelia is back in the names having been the named storm impacting Ireland a few years ago.

star gazer

Tropical Depression 3 is forecast to become a Hurricane. It's name will be "Bret" if develops as expected.

INIT  19/1500Z 11.0N  40.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  20/0000Z 11.2N  42.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  20/1200Z 11.7N  45.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  21/0000Z 12.2N  48.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  21/1200Z 12.8N  51.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  22/0000Z 13.3N  53.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  22/1200Z 13.8N  56.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  23/1200Z 14.9N  61.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  24/1200Z 16.5N  66.5W   65 KT  75 MPH

snowstreams

Will it not be storm bret?

it seems early to have 2-3 storms already. I wonder will the storms end up tracking to the north east & disrupt our good weather?

star gazer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120736146#Comment_120736146

You're right Bret, the second Tropical Depression wasn't named.

WolfeEire

That is quite the lineup of depressions in the wake of Tropical Storm Bret, which looks like it will make landfall around St Lucia tonight. A hurricane watch has been issued for the island this eve. Webcam here - https://youtu.be/9UrGalBRCdA

star gazer

Tropical Storm Idalia Looks set to become a Hurricane and make landfall on the Florida coast. Warm waters to traverse.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?start#contents

Hurricane Franklin forecast to become a Major hurricane and veer towards Bermuda

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?start#contents

.Donegal.

Yesterday it was expected to make landfall as a Cat 1. (Unofficially others expected it to be stronger) Today they are expecting it become a major hurricane (Cat 3) before landfall.

star gazer

Hurricane Franklin Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082023
900 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023

...FRANKLIN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING...

Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that 
Hurricane Franklin is rapidly intensifying. The maximum winds are 
estimated to be 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. The minimum 
central pressure has decreased to 937 mb. The next full advisory on 
Franklin will be at 11AM EDT (1500 UTC), and the intensity forecast 
at that time will be increased from the previous advisory given the 
ongoing rapid intensification.

SUMMARY OF 0900 AM...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 70.9W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM N OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Brown

Hurricane Franklin has been intensifying very quickly. Up to a Category 4.

aisling86

I watched back Mikes weather page live this morning & they definitely don’t have enough time to evacuate!

Kermit.de.frog

Idalia intensifying rapidly atm. Top wind speed just measured at 84 kts during current recon flight and central pressure down to 967mb.

pad199207

She’s taking off now

Akrasia

Looks like the worst case scenario with the storm surge coinciding with a super full moon in a low lying highly populated area.

I hope people heed the warnings

tomcosgrave

Been watching hurricanes a long time. This may hit a Category 4 as it comes ashore in a part of Florida that hasn't been hit by a major hurricane for decades if at all (depending on the coastline of north west Florida). This could be very, very nasty. It isn't just the flooding, it's the wind and the rain and then the flooding and storm surge as that happens, it is immensely destructive. My thoughts are with those who will be affected either through being there or who are evacuated and will suffer damage to property.

Kermit.de.frog

Latest recon just measured just over 115 kts.

tomcosgrave

Just declared a Category 4 storm. Really not good.

Supercell

Wouldn't like to be facing that :(

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL102023#navLink

30 Aug 2023 - 9:00 UTC ...IDALIA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... ...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS ARE NEARING THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION... As of 5:00 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 the center of Idalia was located near 29.1, -84.1 with movement NNE at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 940 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.

sryanbruen

August 2022 with La Nina: No tropical storms.

August 2023 with El Nino: 2 110+ mph hurricanes at the same time.

🙃

PokeHerKing

Mad how quickly she crossed the Gulf once past Cuba. Franklins been spining off Bermuda for what feels like a month now!

spookwoman

Pilots evacuating MacDill Airforce Base in Tampa bay recorded st Elmos fire. Posted 11 hours ago, Lot of lightning at the moment, air must have been charged a great deal to create this.

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-us-canada-66653889

tomcosgrave

Idalia downgraded now to Category 3 just before it makes landfall on Big Bend, small mercies. Still a hugely destructive major hurricane.

Gaoth Laidir

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121045082#Comment_121045082

At 125 mph, Idalia equaled the Cat 4 that hit the Big Bend area way back in 1893.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1696852603270000962

Rikand

watching the track of Idalia reminded me when I followed Wilma on "theStormTrack" a hurricane watching website that sadly no longer exists.

A nice website I am using now and only discovered recently is ZoomEarth, shows all active hurricanes and their path/predicted track. You can also go back on historic storms and see theirs. Tropical Cyclone Freddy's track across the Indian ocean from this year is a good one. It's currently up for debate as potentially the longest lived storm of all time.

https://zoom.earth

Robwindstorm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121049025#Comment_121049025

Wow, that's a great website, thanks for sharing that

Gaoth Laidir

Idalia was actually Cat 3 on landfall, not Cat 4.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/al10/al102023.discus.016.shtml?

Hurricane Idalia Discussion Number  16...Retransmitted
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102023
1100 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023
 
Although Idalia reached category 4 intensity early this morning 
over the far northeastern Gulf of Mexico, Air Force Reserve 
Hurricane Hunter data just before landfall indicated that the peak 
winds had started to decrease and the minimum pressure had begun to 
rise.  This was likely due to an eyewall replacement cycle (which 
was shown by radar data) and an increase in shear over the 
hurricane.  Idalia made landfall near Keaton Beach, Florida, 
as a category 3 hurricane around 1145 UTC, and it has been 
weakening quickly since then over northern Florida.  WSR-88D 
Doppler velocities suggest that the maximum winds are now down to 
about 80 kt.

tomcosgrave

Yeah I noticed that at the time and said it - think it was going through an eyewall replacement cycle which took it back to Cat 3.

star gazer

1. The depression is forecast to become a major hurricane by 
this weekend and could bring impacts to the Leeward Islands by that 
time. While it is too soon to determine the location and magnitude 
of these possible impacts, interests in this area should monitor 
the progress of the depression and updates to the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/1500Z 12.5N  40.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 12.8N  42.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 13.6N  44.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  07/0000Z 14.4N  47.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  07/1200Z 15.3N  49.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  08/0000Z 16.2N  52.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  08/1200Z 17.3N  54.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  09/1200Z 19.4N  59.1W  115 KT 130 MPH
120H  10/1200Z 21.5N  63.5W  120 KT 140 MPH

2,295km East of the Lesser Antilles. Forecast to become a Major Hurricane. Lee next name in line I think.

star gazer

Jova up to 260km/h maximum sustained winds, now forecast to make it to 285km/h. Quite the Hurricane but it isn't triggering watches or warnings as it heads into open ocean.

tomcosgrave

Hurricane Lee currently exploding into a major hurricane, it will be a strong Category 4 at the very least. Models saying it will curve and not hit anywhere in the Carribbean or US and will perhaps hit the Canadian maritimes - but Bermuda is still a risk.

gaa goes

And there’s another storm brewing behind Hurricane Lee, that might have related impacts for our weather in the next 10 days to 2 weeks.

pad199207

Lee skipped 3 and went to Cat 4 in latest advisory

star gazer

1. Lee has become a dangerous category 5 hurricane, and further
strengthening is forecast overnight.  Lee's core is expected to move
well north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico this weekend and early next week.

2. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents are likely in
the northern Leeward Islands beginning Friday.  These conditions
will spread westward and northward, affecting Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, and Bermuda through
the weekend.

3. It is way too soon to know what level of impacts, if any, Lee 
might have along the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, or Bermuda 
late next week, particularly since the hurricane is expected to 
slow down considerably over the southwestern Atlantic.  Regardless, 
dangerous surf and rip currents are expected along most of the U.S. 
East Coast beginning Sunday.  Continue to monitor updates to Lee's 
forecast during the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0300Z 17.3N  52.4W  140 KT 160 MPH
 12H  08/1200Z 18.1N  54.0W  155 KT 180 MPH
 24H  09/0000Z 19.1N  56.1W  150 KT 175 MPH
 36H  09/1200Z 20.1N  58.0W  145 KT 165 MPH
 48H  10/0000Z 20.9N  59.6W  140 KT 160 MPH
 60H  10/1200Z 21.5N  60.9W  135 KT 155 MPH
 72H  11/0000Z 22.1N  62.2W  130 KT 150 MPH
 96H  12/0000Z 23.2N  64.7W  125 KT 145 MPH
120H  13/0000Z 24.1N  66.6W  115 KT 130 MPH

Hurricane Lee is a category 5, forecast to strengthen further