Black Bay 58 (and a bit of rambling)

fourmations

hi all

so like half the world i have fallen for the BB58 blue on the bracelet, i have never seen one in the flesh but will remedy that tomorrow, why is it demanding such a high price on the used market? 3.5k is the going price used, but its 3.9k new, its not hard to get it seems both ADs in dublin have them as we speak, why would you pay a few hundred less for a used one

also, I assume its a good choice, its my 50th in august and had planned on getting something a lot less expensive originally a Seiko Speedtimer which i wasn't overwhelmed by in the flesh so then I was thinking of upping that to a longines hydro conquest but the BB58 is constantly in my head and ive watched every review on youtube and it seems unanimous that its special, im sure id be disappointed if i don't spend the (considerable) extra on that, im thinking that every time i looked at my Longines id be wishing it was a BB58, i like the idea of passing it to my son when the reaper calls my name and sentimentality aside i'd like it to be a good brand with a bit of clout & history ,

cheers

scwazrh

I found the 58 to be very boring on the wrist and moved it on fairly quickly .Sold it as new for €2900 earlier this year . I have been toying with idea of buying another and have sourced one for €2600 in good condition bar one small scratch on the bracelet.Have also been offered a few on TZ for around £2200 mark .All full sets .The RRP vs resale value is gone on Tudors in my opinion.Great watch for €2500 though if you go used .

if your willing to spend €4k retail I would suggest pushing the budget to €4500 and buy a Seamaster diver 300m instead .Far far superior watch although a bit bigger.

893bet

If you don’t have a collection. As an heirloom, for a son in 20 years (assume at least that), i wonder if Tudor is right choice.

fourmations

Cheers for the feedback, well it's a case of an heirloom that I like too, I have a half dozen watches but none are expensive or considered "luxury", the dimensions of the BB appeal to me hugely and im happy enough for it not to shout "look at me" , seamasters are too big for my taste, thanks for the price advice, , I don't have access to the TZ classifieds, joined years ago and posted once or twice!! They are 3.5 on chrono, watchfinder, there's one on adverts for 3.5 too so thought that was the going rate, cheers

fourmations

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120671815#Comment_120671815

In what way is it a questionable choice? Suggestions welcome, it's at max budget, cheers

893bet

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120674792#Comment_120674792

I guess I am unsure where Tudor will be in 20 years. No one gave a shite about them 5 years ago. I think Omega or Rolex has the brand longenivity built up at this point but will be more dollars.

fourmations

Cheers, I'm funny on the omegas, the ones I like are too big for my tastes, I don't have tiny wrists persay, (7.25") but the biggest watch I own is 42mm and that's the uppermost limit for my taste" love the speedy but way out of budget and I'd probably prefer the reduced, I do appreciate your thoughts on brand position though, I know it's a case of buy and wear what you like but if I'm dropping 4k I'd like to think it would be a respected brand , however shallow it sounds I'd like to get a watch with a bit of brand respect, I know Sinn, mido, oris etc make great watches but for my milestone birthday it would be nice to have a "luxury" brand, cheers

banie01

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120675286#Comment_120675286

I own a Blackbay 41 and a 2008 Omega Seamaster GMT, I've also owned a ceramic Seamaster.

The Tudor wears far larger than either of the Omegas, the Tudor is quite a deep watch and those sides really are slabs when you compare it to other watches you might consider.

That said, but what you like and what you feel a grá for. The good thing about the Tudor and Omega is that they are generally available to try on. I love both my Tudor and Omega, my own preference is for my Omega and even at that, for the older style of aluminium bezel. If you plan in wearing the watch with a shirt, wear one when you try them in. The cuff test is one my Tudor struggles with.

Enjoy whatever you end up buying and wear it in good health.

scwazrh

I can’t see Tudor losing any ground as a brand ,the opposite I would imagine .They are now in the position Rolex had .It’s not Rolex or omega anymore , now it’s Tudor or omega .Rolex have moved up a level and left that market gap for Tudor who are killing it in the €6k and under bracket .That said I would prefer a seamaster to a Black bay or a speedie to a BB chrono .

Back to topic for OP though , if it’s a BB58 you like and are going to pass onto your son , buy it from an AD , yeah your paying a few quid extra but you will get the AD experience, full set and new watch .in 20 years time it will still be worth more than you paid for it plus it will have always been yours, not someone else’s.

Wibbs

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120677677#Comment_120677677

in 20 years time it will still be worth more than you paid for it

I have to disagree S. It almost certainly won't. Not unless we get another currently on the shelves watch models bubble inflating again. As you note yourself the RRP/resale value thing has already gone for Tudor. Peak Watch hit mid covid after a few years of the hobby gaining mainstream interest. That bubble has long popped and a large percentage of trend followers have left and more are leaving by the day. Unlike say classic cars that are era specific and when those of that era hit middle age and have a few quid to buy what they couldn't when younger,(or buy back at they had) so that rolling trend keeps, well, rolling(so far). Watches aren't like that to nearly the same degree or 90's Casios and TAGs would have gone nuts during the peak. And they didn't. Even 80's and 90's Rolexes didn't.

As for the AD experience, maybe I'm wired differently, but I can't see slapping down not that far off half the price extra for a mass produced item handled by loads of people, including people trying it on in the AD before you get it as adding anything of value. Especially with the trend of people buying them and barely wearing them to sell them on. The market is not unlike buying a secondhand car that's still brand new with delivery mileage on the clock and the placcy seat covers still in place. At a third or more off the price of new.

scwazrh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120681682#Comment_120681682

How much was a Tudor submariner when it discontinued? 1500ish and now they are minimum of €5k .And a seamaster 300m in the 00s was about €2k now a 2002 model would cost the same or a bit more .Im not suggesting buy a Tudor to make a profit but if you are keeping it for 20 years you’re not going to loose money on it.

Value from an AD isn’t just monetary.If you’re keeping a watch to hand down to your kids its nice to be the first and only owner and to have the full set and purchase receipt .Maybe that’s just me but my submariner will be my sons one day and brining him in with me to collect it added to the specialness of the watch .

But then again that’s all just watch romance bullsh*t and if value is our main concern the OP would be better off sticking the €4k into a S&P 500 tracker for his son.

o1s1n

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120675286#Comment_120675286

Have you looked at the second hand Speedy/reduced market?

I bought my reduced last year with box and papers (one Irish owner before me who didn't wear it, was basically like new) for 2.5k. So well within your budget.

Wibbs

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120681786#Comment_120681786

The rise in stuff like the Tudor submariner was part of the bubble, rising tide and all that. And the waters haven't fully retreated yet. However, look at those Tudor subs on chrono24, take a screenshot, come back in six months and you'll note how many are still there... The actual vintage market is stagnant, a dead man walking and stock isn't shifting. The near vintage/more current market is going the same way, just a couple of years behind it, following the same trajectory. Hell, even the rarified doesn't really apply to the Real World high ticket auction market is shaky enough and too many examples of frankenwatches and outright fakes being pimped and signed off on by very big names didn't help*.

AD or not, I 100% agree it's down to the individual and fair play, though I would caution anyone on a budget and/or a newbie to go the more sensible route. it's just this mantra-that's less than five years old BTW-of "you won't lose money on [insert model here]" does my head in, because IMHO A) It's nonsense unless you bought the right watch at the right time and sold it at the right time during the tulip fever, B) it's bad advice to the casual watch buyer and C) it was one of the mantras that drove the same tulip fever.

*Including a five million plus quid hammer price on a white gold "one off' vintage Rolex Daytona owned and showcased on hodinkee by John Goldberger in the famous episode where he opened watchcases with a cheese knife. He and Phillips kept details short until pushed and it was then revealed to be "restored". Dial(wrong), hands, bezel(wrong), pushers(fake) with a movement that was the wrong date.

scwazrh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120682386#Comment_120682386

Trying to convince you that buying a watch new is pointless at any time , new watches are not your thing , so be it , I don’t except you to agree but you’ve lost me with what a 5million dollar auction price has to do with my comment of a BB won’t loose money over 20 years but again so be it.

if the OP has €4k to spend on a watch a BB is a fairly sound purchase to maintain its value over a long period of time . Any of the mainstream watches are.Im not saying buy it as a long term investment, my comment was simply that the premium you pay in the AD will be irrelevant in 20years and you’ll most likely loose nothing on it .

I’ve been looking for a few of the popular Seiko divers from the 70s and they are all selling for more than their original retail price, same with James Bond seamasters , speedies , Pre- v Panerai even my tag Heuer F1 from 2006 that only cost €600 still has some value to it if the eBay listings are to be believed.Sure the obscure stuff that you’re into isn’t going to hold its value but if you think about any of the mainstream watches that you bought and since moved on they probably wouldn’t have done too bad , rising tide or not.

The you wont lose money on x that became so popular was always bad advice on short term purchases but that’s not what I’m suggesting to the OP.

o1s1n

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120682703#Comment_120682703

If you buy a 4k watch today you might sell it for 4k again in 20 years, but that will be a very different 4k due to inflation.

The numbers might look the same, but the value is not.

Wibbs

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120682703#Comment_120682703

It's got nada to do with me not buying new S. The OP wants a new watch, but he can get a new watch with box, papers and all the gubbins for at least a third off. Just not with the AD Experience(tm). If they want the latter cool and the gang and fair play, if they don't care and fair play too, then it's a very good option. Put it another way S, if the OP was looking to buy a new TAG Heuer(and why not) or a Hublot(why!😄) would you reckon the AD Experience(tm) worth the hit then?

And of course Seiko divers from the 70's et al are going for more than their original RRP. A Rolex SS Sub in the early 70's was 250 Dollars(around 1400 today allowing for inflation etc). A Speedy was around the same. By the mid 80's the prices had effectively doubled. The 90's and the interwebs affected used and vintage sales, even then and save for rarities and particularly sought after models they were still cheaper than new. This forum is barely a decade old and when it started you could get discounts on Rolex Subs with the AD Experience(tm). Still check out for example those same 70's Seiko divers(save for a Willard) and allow for inflation and the fact they're collectables now, not being made anymore so supply is finite and still in the price ranges where the madness didn't reach so there are more buyers and you'll find they're not so much more than original RRP(if not less).

As for my obscure stuff, I wouldn't lose money on any of them. The least of them would get more than double what I paid. Triple would be more the average and a few more than that. More again at peak vintage four or five years ago. Not such bad percentages if that were my bag. No grand plan on my part. I bought before the madness, bought "lucky", or bought the obscure before they stopped being obscure. EG the 70's Omega Mariner I'm wearing this very day. 300 quid. 1100-1500 these days. And that's a quartz. 😱 Of the mainstream watches I've had, the pre Moon Speedie I had in the early 00's would be one. Though I didn't lose on it at the time. My biggest "hit" would be another obscure yoke, a Stowa B-Uhr(unwearable) for again 300 quid back in the 90's. I just checked and apparently they're an eight grand plus watch these days*, if a buyer can be actually found. Still I did sell it for over three grand so a tenfold return wasn't too bad I suppose.

*I notice a few dealers with B-Uhr adding in strap compasses to sweeten the deal. Mostly post war Czech examples(and that's how sad I am to know that). I have a actual WW2 one so I must remember that if I want to flog off one of my WW2 tickers. 😄

H_Lime

Those AD's must have some soft hands and excellent technique!

https://youtu.be/4EVFdPjFR5s

scwazrh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120682984#Comment_120682984

but he can get a new watch with box, papers and all the gubbins for at least a third off. Just not with the AD Experience(tm).

Where ?

From the OPs post the best prices he could find was around €3500 , that’s €400 less than RRP .I’m looking for one and the best I can get is used for around €2500, thats a 1/3 off but used and marked. I already said €2500 is a great price for one but where is there one new for a 1/3 off ?

The best price from the OPs research is €400 less than new . I’ve told him spend the extra and buy in an AD . That extra is €400 and I reckon thats negligible in 20 years time and your disagreeing?

You’re with me that 70s Seiko divers are above retail , your omega mariner is 3 fold over retail , your speedie was up on price , your stowa made you several times over retail. You’re not really selling your point of watches not being worth their retail in 20 years .You’re trying to prove my comment was wrong and giving facts from your own experience to show you agree with my opinion .

I think it’s the AD experience bit that you’re mainly disagreeing with . Some lads here like to buy bits of watches from alibaba and put them together to make watches that look like another brand , the Frankenstein watch is worth nothing and fit for the bin only but no one calls that out as a waste of money .All are quick to jump on the AD experience comment though .

I like to buy some watches in the AD and get the experience and piece of mind that it’s a 100% original and I’m happy to pay a bit extra for that.As you said yourself even the big 5million dollar used watches can be fake , I’d rather pay a few hundred extra for certainty .And advising a casual watch buyer as you call them to buy in an AD is actually a lot more sensible than advising them to go 2nd hand , again for the very reason you mention that the watch can so easily be fake.

RMDrive

OP, first of all ... congrats on being in the position to have this choice!! And I wish you an early happy birthday.

I always visualise watch collecting as climbling a ladder - with rungs that are variably spaced. Some people go straight to the top of the ladder and their first serious watch purchase is a Rolex or similar (I know that Rolex isn't necessarily the top ... but you know what I mean 😀). Others take their time with each rung, enjoying the view and the journey. IMH it takes time to figure out what you want from a watch - it takes wearing crap bracelets to figure out what makes a great bracelet; it takes wearing a watch to understand legibility and design.

My advice to you would be to dabble a little bit first. Pick up a few pieces here or elsewhere and wear them for a few months then flip. Try out a Steinhart or a Stowa or whatever. Build your own sense of what makes a great watch - then go buy the BB58 or whatever you decide.

The journey is more than half the fun!

And if you are ever out west, you are welcome to come try on my BB58 .. which I love 😍

H_Lime

Very soft hands so lol!!!

Wibbs

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120683343#Comment_120683343

You’re with me that 70s Seiko divers are above retail , your omega mariner is 3 fold over retail , your speedie was up on price , your stowa made you several times over retail. You’re not really selling your point of watches not being worth their retail in 20 years .You’re trying to prove my comment was wrong and giving facts from your own experience to show you agree with my opinion .

The Seikos are around original retail because they're now "collectables" and in an area that's still vibrant. The Omega Mariner is actually below original RRP as they were an expensive at the time watch, double the price of a Speedie, so about 2500-3000 today. I got my Longines Ultraquartz for 200 quid, now they're around the 1500 mark, if you can find a buyer. Originally, they were 800, so 4600 original RRP adjusted for inflation. Lord knows what the price of B-Uhr were. Only Herr Hitler's air ministry knew that.😁

However and it's a big one; I bought it in the 90's. Ditto for the Speedie. Just on the cusp of the interwebs and a decade before the old watch collecting thing went beyond the purview of weirdos like me and prices rose accordingly. That time has come and gone. And even in those early enough days there were a couple of "bubbles". Early Rolex Oysters went from a few 100 quid to 5-6000 and up. Until near overnight circa 2000, the bubble popped. If you bought one in that bubble you'd be down a few grand.

In essence I bought tulip bulbs a year before tulip mania. Tulip mania has gone now. Tulips will still be desired of course, but I can't see the heady days back again any time soon, so-IMHO of course-ascribing values going up, or even staying steady over the next 20 years is highly dubious. Plus the Black Bay, though a bloody lovely watch is very of the now. It might not be in the future. If this were the late 90's and well into the 00's a contemporary TAG would have the go to "Good Watch" for most people. They were huge in the normal people world. Today... In any event that's not what I'd really be thinking about regarding a family heirloom.

Though TBH I 100% take your point on board re fakes and the confidence of buying in an AD for non watch nerds, and agree with you too TBH.