Punchestown 2023

howareyakid

Bit late with the selections, but here a few for Day 1 of the Punchestown Festival!

4:50: Brazil 9/2

5:25: Energumene 1/3 (multiples)

6:00: Farland 3/1 NAP

6:35 : Feronily 12/1

4:15: I think Facile Vega will win but I don’t like his price of 4/7, even for putting in multiples, so this will he a race to watch for me. 

4:50: Not a race I went through in huge detail, but BRAZIL stood put straight away. Boodles winner last year, he should appreciate the better ground and I think I has a good chance at 9/2f.

5:25: ENERGUMENE was mightily impressive at Cheltenham and is virtually unbackable here apart from being in multiples.

6:00: Two that really interested me here were Arubtothequeen, whose dam was a bumper winner here a few years back, for Jessica Harrington and FARLAND, a half-brother to Minella Cocooner, who has attracted significant market support and has Derek O’Connor booked to ride. 

6:35: Today could be the day that one of Sir Gerhard or Appreciate It finally puts it all together over fences in a Grade 1, but I think they both have questions to answer in terms of trip and overall appetite for fences, particularly in the case of the Sir Gerhard in my opinion. I will take a chance on FERONILY at small stakes here. He has made a quick rise from running in bumpers, only as far back as the DRF in February, to running over the larger obstacles, and while still a maiden there was some promise in his last run and I’m taking a chance that he has potential for a big step up.

howareyakid

Some performance that from Facile Vega!

hayrabit

i'll chance win only on TAX FOR MAX 8/1 of WPM in 4.50.. a lesser race it was, but he's a ~ CD winner from last Nov - when making all; was only a 6 runner affair then.

is also a ~CD winner in bigger field from last May.. that was on Good going in 18 runner field, and stalked the leader that day

has also come third over today's exact trip at the course, on Good going, last May

just looked at less than half the field. odds o' reward not great, but it'll do

g'l

howareyakid

All the money has come for Tekao here — Brazil out to 7s now which doesn’t bode well!

hayrabit

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120519813#Comment_120519813

Jacob had him at back o' mid div - smuggled him into race ~3fs out - could've won on another day, had he been closer earlier,,, Stablemate Bialystok (a drifter from 8s to 14s) was closer to jamstick when race began in earnest

fekk dem crossbar jobs ;)

hayrabit

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120519970#Comment_120519970

WPM "gets tricast up" pays ~£680

alright if ya'd done his four mules in a combi t'cst 😂

hayrabit

6:35: Today could be the day that one of Sir Gerhard or Appreciate It finally puts it all together over fences in a Grade 1, but I think they both have questions to answer in terms of trip and overall appetite for fences, particularly in the case of the Sir Gerhard in my opinion. I will take a chance on FERONILY at small stakes here. He has made a quick rise from running in bumpers, only as far back as the DRF in February, to running over the larger obstacles, and while still a maiden there was some promise in his last run and I’m taking a chance that he has potential for a big step up.

that one'll do me each way an' all, ta ☺️

howareyakid

4:15: Three Card Brag 9/4 NAP

5:20: Gaelic Warrior 1/1

5:55: Galopin Des Champs 2/5 (multiples)

6:30: A Dream To Share 11/10

7:45: Bold Reflection 9/1

4:15: Competitive looking contest, but although THREE CARD BRAG finished behind Sandor Clegane in the Albert Bartlett, he has finished ahead of him previously in Galway, and switching back to 2m5f might be more of a plus for him here. 

5:20: Slight question mark about this horse stepping up in trip, and overall to date I think he could be slightly overrated, but I’m giving GAELIC WARRIOR a somewhat tentative vote here, and if he handles the new trip he could just be too good for the rest. If Affodale Fury can reproduce his excellent Albert Bartlett second then he could be bang there as well. 

5:55: GALOPIN DES CHAMPS was awesome at Cheltenham and if in the same form here and barring any mishaps he just wins. I have him in the muggy treble with Energumene and State Man.

6:30: Tullyhill never got off the bridle on his rules debut at Gowran, so he could be absolutely anything and it wouldn’t surprise me were he to win here. However, A DREAM TO SHARE answered a lot of the question marks about him with the way he won a very attritional Champion Bumper on testing ground at Cheltenham last time out, so for me he’s the real deal and he gets my vote. 

7:45: I initially fancied BOLD REFLECTION for the mares’ bumper at the DRF before she wasn’t declared, so I will back her here. Jamie Codd booked to ride is promising.

hayrabit

ta for putting them up Kid 🙂

must be a day for shorties seein' as you've (uncharacteristically) plumped for 4 of em Kid 😂 no point studying at all trying to find a big-priced one (too lazy/much work that Punchestown card anyhow for this posta 🙂) if the favs are likely winners 😛

watching brief for me, the big Irish meet 😊

ya put up that FERONILY at right good time too.. was at Zenith of his drift! Great picking, Great price !!

cheers, and good luck today :)

howareyakid

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120523679#Comment_120523679

Bad start with Three Card Brag! Ground might have been a concern for him — one for the learning column for me😅 A short-priced winner is better than a long-odds loser so they say, so let’s hope a few of them come in!!

hayrabit

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120523951#Comment_120523951

forgeddaboutit - ya can't win them all 🙂

ya were right to concentrate on market leaders (jolly won iirc) , so, ya, you knows yer schtuff 😃

hayrabit

hard to look past WPM's in Mares' Bumper 7.45

FUN FUN FUN annihilated field at Leopardstown in February, but different race/course today on similar going - far too short for me at evens tho

Fastorslow was bloody hard to find in 5,55 :(

hayrabit

don't know why Gleeson flogged (racing related pun intended 😃) his mule

wonder how much JP paid for A Dream To Share

It's For Me = 2nd fav. race = "Not for Me"

hope jolly wins - to keep ye hype going

hayrabit

very good horse - whatever JP paid, he's made plenty back now !!

howareyakid

GDC losing today was a sickener! Fair play to the Brassil horse though and all connections!

howareyakid

4:15: The Folkes Tiara 10/1

5:25: Monkfish 9/2

6:00: Verdant Place 10/1

7:45: Ballyburn 9/10 NAP

4:15: Coming here fresh from a gold run behind Final Orders at Chrismtas, THE FOLKES TIARA could have a chance here for Henry De Bromgead who generally isn’t too far away in these types of races.

5:25: These staying hurdle races have been nigh on impossible to read so far this season! I don’t think Teaupoo had much excuse at Cheltenham but at 6 he’s still improving and any rain is doing him no harm. Klassical Dream is bidding for a hat trick here. I don’t think he ran too well at Cheltenham, but you get the feeling this was always the target. Sire Du Berlais is going for an unprecedented trifecta after winning at Cheltenham and Aintree and it would be some achievement if he was to pull it off. I will take a chance on MONKFISH, however, who ran a good race at Fairyhouse after a huge break. If in amongst it, he might have the class to get over the line, but it’s far from a bullish opinion. 

6:00: VERDANT PLACE’s record around Punchestown reads 311 and includes a C&D win in February. Seems ground versatile and had a great second last time out at Fairyhouse. Seems progressive from down bear the bottom of the weights. 

7:45: There seemed to be a lot of positive talk about BALLYBURN after his win, at Punchestown, earlier in the season, and there was some suggestions he may be one of Willie’s best bumper horses this year. If that’s the case, he should be good enough to win here.

howareyakid

4:50: Impervious 4/7

5:25: State Man 4/11

6:00: Impaire Et Passe 3/10

6:45: Its On The Line 5/1

7:10 Sa Majeste 3/1

7:45: Quantum Storm 15/4

It goes without saying that the three short-priced favourites are expected to win and are priced accordingly. I’m on the treble here. Impervious is most at risk of not winning, I think, but these are horse races, and as we saw with GDC earlier on in the week, there are no guarantees! But here’s hoping that if they jump around without incident, they’ll all win. 

6:45: If none the worse from his fall at Aintree, ITS ON THE LINE ran a big race to finish second at Cheltenham and that piece of form stands out for me here in what is always an enjoyable and competitive race.

7:10: Was a bit friendless in the market earlier on but as always with these lightly-raced Willie Mullins French recruits, your betting on potential. If SA MAJASTE proves to be another great find for Willie and JP, then he could be good enough to win here. 

7:45: I was most drawn to the form lines of Irish Panther and QUANTUM STORM behind the very impressive Ballyburn, who gave the form a big boost yesterday, at Punchestown earlier on in the season, and second to him that day, I hope this Gordon Elliott horse can go one better here.

hayrabit

gl with all those Kid

some great work/analysis put in by yerself all week !

appreciated by us punters on here, ta v much ☺️

👊

hayrabit

7.45

can't really get a handle on Bumper form, but the well-backed LITTLEFOOT ~8/1 will do me each way here, tho the value does look to be gone

2nd the last twice in ~2m bumpers, the slightly softer (yielding-er 🙂) going, should benefit this 5yo son of Milan - going by his decent second to Lucky Lyreen at DR on Soft Going, in his run prior to the two referenced above. staying the ~18furlongs looks guaranteed

would've been €5 ew at earlier prices, but will chance €3 ew at odds current. should deffo be in top five or six home anyhow, imo

can't manage any opinion on likely winner - will hope it rains a bit tho !!

g'l all

howareyakid

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120532497#Comment_120532497

Appreciate that! I said I would try and keep going with the selections for the spring festivals, and that could be me then until next winter bar possibly a few for Galway of maybe some of the big flat races!

Good luck with Littlefoot also – I remember putting him up back in February for his Clonmel run in the race that was won by Nick Rockett. He has proved to be a very decent horse since for Wilie Mullins, going on to win a Grade 2 novice hurdle in Fairyhouse earlier on this month.

hayrabit

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120532471#Comment_120532471

WD Kid

4:50: Impervious 4/7

5:25: State Man 4/11

6:00: Impaire Et Passe 3/10

😁 nice treble !!

4:50: Impervious 4/7

5:25: State Man 4/11

6:00: Impaire Et Passe 3/10

6:45: Its On The Line 5/1

four from four !

Top notch picking OP 😁

didn't back any meself, but good to see someone do the biz 😊

hayrabit

7.10 no time for write-up

UNCLE PHIL EW NAP 14/1

gl

hayrabit

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120533322#Comment_120533322

won at Killarney 3 runs back - similar trip/going - when tracking leaders

must have been something amiss on next run, as ended up p/u after been keengoing early on

was well supported over CD lto, but trying to make all probably didn't help, but was only 6 runner race. nine go to post in few mins, and i'd imagine there'll be something else that can go on

hard to give anything else strong claims here - looks wide open.

don't know what to make of fav's form from ~2 1/4m on heavy o'er in France

:)

howareyakid

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120533272#Comment_120533272

Now it was easy to pick the first three but glad to see them all get the job done! Impervious was mightily impressive and State Man very professional as well. Didn’t see the full novice hurdle race but Imapire Et Passe seemed to have to work but always doing enough! Unlucky with Uncle Phil, you made a few bob with the place anyway!

hayrabit

ta 😊

ur odds on ones might've been obvious , but that ~ 5/1 winner pick deserves some credit 😁

never looked like winning, my pick, but nice to get the place tbs on Uncle Phil 🤣

howareyakid

3:10: Mercury Lane 6/1

3:50: Echoes In Rain 5/2

4:25: Ballykeel 12/1 e/w

5:00: Lossiemouth 8/15

5:30: Seddon 9/2

6:05: Sorrentino 1/1

3:10: Sir Bob has been running well at 11 years old and he came well into the calculations here, as did My Design who finished second in the Ulster National last time out. I landed on MERCURY LANE for Paul Nolan eventually though. He has won over 3 miles, last month in Wexford on yielding, and he seems to have been supported in the market so far, so hoping he may be able to step up here from the bottom of the weights in what's a tougher race.

3:50: She didn't run too badly to finish fourth at Cheltenham, and if there isn't much rain today, I think we will see ECHOES IN RAIN to better effect in ground on the better side, so I am giving her the vote in what looks like a very deep and competitive mares' race.

4:25: BALLYKEEL is in here at the bottom of the handicap and seems to be closely matched with the favourite at the weights, so I'm hoping he might have an each way chance. He seems to be running quite consistently despite fading out in the Kim Muir last time out, but that wouldn't completely put me off the idea of him running his race here.

5:00: Similarly to the three shorties yesterday, LOSSIEMOUTH's claims are impossible to knock, and if she runs to a similar level to Cheltenham, she wins here. I will put her in a double with Sorrentino in the bumper.

5:30: SEDDON ran a cracker to win the plate at Cheltenham last time and is off a lower hurdles mark here. With Ben Harvey claiming another 5lbs, he looks a fairly strong favourite. Interesting to see Paul Townend choose Heia over Risk Belle, which may be a tip in itself.

6:05: Very tricky bumper with very little rules form on offer. Goldinthemountians has been well backed for Pat Doyle, but Willie Mullins' newcomer, SORRENTINO, has also been strong in the market to date, and with the incredible form of his horses – which we are almost taking fro granted at this stage – he gets the vote.

Good luck all for what is the last day of the Irish National Hunt season!

hayrabit

hot damn! as ye yankees say 'Kid'

on fire this week 🙌 👊 👍️

great pick on Seddon, ta v much 😊

a long way to go to match that day ya had at Chelty Festival ~ 2yrs ago - that was something else!!! like of which we'll hardly see again 🙂

howareyakid

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120536272#Comment_120536272

Cheers! Was a nice winner and had a decent week overall, so you have to enjoy the good days!

Ah yeah that was definitely one of the good days! Bob Olinger, Monkfisk, Heaven Help Us, Put the Kettle On, Sky Pirate and Sir Gerhard if memory serves me correctly! On St. Patrick’s Day as well! ☘️ I’ll try to find a few more winners next season as well hopefully all going well!

hayrabit

glad ya made a few bob, and thanks for all the effort in putting selections up here 😊

MacDanger

Yeah, cheers @howareyakid, appreciate the posts 👍