Trial Races

backthathorse

Hi, I’m a newbie to this forum.

I’m very into trial races for major races. I identify the trial races by looking for those where the most number of runners who ran in the target race had ran in the most recent run of a trial race.

For example it’s the Navan Boyne Hurdle on Sunday and over the last 20 years or so 39 horses have ran in the Leopardstown Frank Ward Memorial Christmas Hurdle Stakes at the end of Dec and then gone on to run in the Boyne the following Feb.

Below is my report showing what I view as the trial races for Boyne and various stats plus the final column shows the runners declared for the Boyne on Sunday who ran in the most recent instance of the trial race.

Have a look see what you think

howareyakid

The 3 mile Grade 3 Surehaul Mercedes-Benz Novice Hurdle goes to post this Thursday in Clonmel at 2:15. Previous winners of the race include Allaho (2019), Monalee (2017) and Don Poli (2014). Don Poli followed up by winning the Martin Pipe at Cheltenham in 2014, before going on to win the RSA Novices’ Chase the following year, and Monalee went on to finish second to Penhill in the Albert Bartlett after winning here in 2017. 2019 proved to be an excellent renewal of this race, as the first two home that day went on to fill two of the top three places in the Cheltenham equivalent a few weeks’ later. Minella Indo turned the form around with Allaho that day, to give Rachael Blackmore her first Grade 1 success at Cheltenhm, winning at odds of 50/1. These odds seemed absolutely crazy with the benefit of hindsight considering he only had four lengths to find on Allaho who was sent off at 8/1. I still didn’t back the horse, though, opting instead for Philip Dempsey’s Derrinross who finished sixth and hasn’t been seen on a racecourse since. But how and ever! Last year’s winner, Shanturesse, went the Albert Bartlett route also, finishing a distant tenth in the race that was won by The Nice Guy. 

 

All in all, when looking at these trends, this race has often been an important trial for the 3 mile Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham, however. It may be no different this year with two of the current ante-post market leaders, Hiddenvalley Lake (9/2JF) and Corbetts Cross (6/1), having entries for Thursday. Gigginstown House Stud – who have won this race six times since 2010, with the aforementioned Don Poli included – enter Search For Glory who is a current 25/1 shot for the Cheltenham 3m novices’ hurdle showpiece. Monty’s Star – from the same connections as Monalee – also has an entry for the Albert Bartlett (16/1), as does Walk In The Brise for Willie Mullins (25/1). 

backthathorse

I had a look at the Surehaul Merc Benz race at Clonmel tomorrow to see how it looks as a trial race for others, by looking at the runners in each run of the Surehaul since 2000 and looking at which of those went on to run in very next instance of a target race. Then order it by the target races with highest accumulated number of runners in who ran in the last instance of the Surehaul.

As such I count 11 horses ran in the Surehaul Merc Benz and then went on to run in the next Albert Bartlett, 1 won and 3 placed.

Keeping note of tomorrow's runners and seeing if any pop in next Feb's Navan Ten Up Novice Chase Stakes, seems to have the most potential, but it is a low sample size to date.