Have we reached 'Peak genealogy'?

Mick Tator

Prior to Ukraine we heard lots about ‘Peak Oil’ -  defined as the hypothetical point in time when the global production of oil reaches its maximum rate, after which production will gradually decline.

Does this theory also apply to genetic genealogy? My matches have slowed to a crawl, the cM figures have shrunk considerably and fewer matches have trees.

Gedmatch – my most recent match on Kit 1 was 50 days ago, the one prior to that was 72 days ago. Kit 2 had single matches 20, 35, 36, 95 days ago. Almost all were <15 cM, so distant.

Ancestry – in the last week I have had 5 matches, 1 at 18cM and 4 at 9cM. The previous week was similar, 14 matches mostly 9 but a few up to 12 cM. just one at 18cM.

MyHeritage – about six matches in the last month, all but one (at 17.6cM)  marked ’Low confidence’.

FTDNA (Y-DNA) – Most recent match was 21st  March last; the one before that was in 2021 (June)!

FTDNA (Autosomal) – 10 matches since 20 June, all 9 – 13cM but for one at 24cM.

I’m beginning to think that global production of DNA testing has already reached its maximum rate, and meaningful results have started to decline. Or, ‘Peak genealogy’??

standardg60

Peak genealogy interest i'd have thought

pinkypinky

Things have certainly slowed down but I'm not sure we're there yet.

I'm still getting plenty of work from people who are using DNA to try and find unknown parents/grandparents.

I think your title would be more accurately 'Peak DNA testing?'. A lot of people are working on their ancestry without DNA testing.

VirginiaB

In the last few months, I've only gotten 1 match above 20cM--Ancestry's cut-off for 4th-6th cousins or closer. I do get a fair number of 8 or 9cM but almost none have any kind of tree and usually have no shared matches. FamilyTree has been useless since day 1. Worse, the boards like this which were so active ten or more years ago and from which I learned so much, are moribund or even non-existent. Not sure why....

I do think a lot of people who start doing genealogy discover that it is--work! And they want a hobby that's not work. It's also expensive to subscribe to all the necessary sites. For myself, it has been the thrill of a lifetime to learn so much about my ancestors, with so much more yet to learn.

pinkypinky

I think a lot of genealogy is happening on more modern social media than a message board system. Rootschat is still pretty active though.

If you look at Facebook communities, there's a lot going on, and #AncestryHour on Twitter is enormously vibrant.

Hermy

Based on my own matches (and those of several others I manage) it certainly seems as though the numbers getting tested has decreased significantly.

It was particularly noticeable the last two years that there wasn't the usual 'top up' after Christmas that there had been in previous years.

Furze99

Maybe OP - you're just exhausting your potential DNA matches. You've hit the people most likely etc - the old 80/20 rule.

Mick Tator

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119315151#Comment_119315151

No, that’s not correct. Genealogy and genetic genealogy should be segmented. ‘Plain’ genealogy always will plod on, dead customers drop-off and are replaced by new intake. Genetic genealogy (GG) is new, fills a much smaller niche and after an initial surge has hit a brick wall with very few new customers.

Like VirginiaB and Hermy, I’ve found a huge decline. I belong to a couple of surname projects on FTDNA. They are dead, with zero recent new members/feedback. Another, a maternal line surname group >5k members on Facebook that has the usual Gedmatch tools has a dire quality of post content, members being ‘awed’ when finding <7cM matches and wondering what it means. Two other regional FB sites (Irish-county & town) on GG are equally dead.  

So why are match numbers falling? I suggest it is because:-

·The majority of those who have a genuine interest in GG have now tested.

-DNA tests have not fallen in price. They should be lower, due to technology & economies of scale.

·Those who were somewhat curious now know that DNA will not tell them much without considerable input/work (as noted by VirginiaB)  That is why professionals like Pinky are seeing an increase in work.

· Geno companies have done little to clearly explain/simplify DNA results. I accept that a degree of knowledge is required, there is jargon to learn, but the ‘go-to’ sites for GG education are written by outsiders, not the GG companies.

Instead of taking notice of the foregoing, geno companies are concentrating on ‘up-selling’ (selling add-ons to existing customers), not on ‘caring’ for them.

New tests will be done but mainly by those interested in ethnicity. Those are people who do not realise the result is a guess, not proof. They do not care about genealogy, they want to be ‘Irish’ or ‘Scots’ or ‘Native American’ without the work.

It will be interesting to see what happens next.

pinkypinky

DNA is just one angle, and similar to people they tell you have their 'Irish clan tartan' or their 'family crest', there's different levels of use and understanding.

If someone wants to do a test and be able to say 'I'm 75% Irish' that's fine. I may still be able to use their results to assist me or clients, even if they don't engage.

I just bought a test for an aunt this weekend. It was €78 including the shipping. That's a pretty small price compared to 5 or 10 years ago.

Mick Tator

I guess that test is from Ancestry which currently has a sale , kit price is €69, down from €95.

The current half-price sale at MyHeritage is €44. From personal experience MyH is useless unless loaded onto Gedmatch.

FTDNA prices are

Y-37   $119 (a rather ineffective level of testing, need to go higher)

Y-111   $249

Big-Y  $449

Add postage to all the above plus forex charges for the USD.

I still think my point on pricing is valid.

pinkypinky

There are offers all the time - you never need to pay full price.

MyHeritage has made me some good leaps. It's not useless, but I'd always start with Ancestry and transfer to them.

WJL

I wouldn't think so, still huge interest.

Mick Tator

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119323763#Comment_119323763

Two things -

Offers all the time - agreed, they are as predictable as bank holidays, so why bother?

MyHeritage - I bought on a BOGOF MyH offer and still have the second one sitting here because (a) the results of the first test were so poor and (b) their system is so clunky. Also their database (or their search engine metrics) s awful for Ireland.

I'm confused by your closing comment, one cannot transfer to Ancestry, they do not allow it.

mindhorn

I think they mean get a test with Ancestry and transfer to MyHeritage. That's what I ended up doing as well.

pinkypinky

Yes, that's what I meant. Buy on Ancestry and transfer to MyH.

I don't use their record database at all: just DNA matching (now circa 13m), which has some better features than Ancestry:

Chromosome browser

Automated triangulation of matches

Ability to see what a match shares with another match

They also have a clustering tool with nice graphics

VirginiaB

Just now, I got a dump of 10 new matches on Ancestry, all low cM. Not one shared match in any of them. A couple had trees but no joy there either. So I suppose that means some continued interest in genealogy.

mindhorn

I get extremely few decent matches these days (over the past year really). I've recently been in contact with some people whom I'm related to who have no interest in taking a DNA test but the amount of research they've done is incredible. New DNA matches would be great but it's not the only source, so I don't think we're near peak genealogy at all.

Mick Tator

I agree that the ‘clusters’ tool from MyH is good/useful. However, Pinky’s response partly proves my comment  on the poor customer offer of many geno companies – she admits ignoring MyHeritage’s main product (a poor database) and using them just for their genetic tools.

I never denied that new people will take up genealogy, but they simply will replace those who give up or die (genealogy hobbyists tend to be older!). The number of customers globally will not grow by much unless change occurs.  That is not happening and is why new matches have slowed down.

I agree that some do great work on paper based records- all of us who have been around for a while fit into that category. However, ignoring genetic genealogy today is worse than ignoring new online record sources was a few years ago. It appears that all the serious genealogists who realise this have tested their DNA but it’s still a relatively small number, hence the low number of new matches and the paucity of interest beyond 'ethnicity'.

Mick Tator

It’s almost year-end so I’ve reviewed my 2022 DNA match results.

The decrease in match numbers continues and from the low count below I’m inferring further proof that DNA testing has slowed.

Globally, the biggest operator is Ancestry, claiming more than 3 million paying subscribers, about 125 million family trees and DNA records on more than 22 million people, the world’s largest consumer DNA database (23andme has 12 million). In the last 3 months Ancestry found no match higher than 22 cMs. Last week I had 37 matches, every one of them ‘Unassigned’ and except for one at 13cMs all are below 11, mainly around 8cMs. In the previous week I had 12 new matches, again all were ‘Unassigned’ and none closer than 10cMs. Almost all of them have no ‘shared matches’.   Is Ancestry churning its database to throw up ‘new’ matches at low levels of cM?

On my MyHeritage account the matches have completely dried up to about 2 or 3 distant ‘Low confidence’ matches monthly. It is impossible to track match dates/numbers using filters.

On my FTDNA Autosomal account, during 2022 there were just five matches above 20 cMs –two at 24 cMs (in March and June); two at 22 cMs (in Sept & Oct.) and one at 21 cMs in May.

On my FTDNA Y-111 marker test  I had no new matches during 2022. At that level, I’ve got 11 matches, six of them with different surnames, 2 individuals share a surname, as do another 3. That’s eight (very) diverse surnames out of my eleven Y-DNA 111 matches; none of them are remotely near my surname. The most recent match was in June 2021, almost all the others were before 2018.

Although Gedmatch is a tool, it is a good indicator of what is happening at an ‘educated’ research level. It has given me four new matches in the last year (age in days 36, 207, 229, 302 – the next was 598 days ago). They ranged between 42 – 33 cMs. (I know Pinky has said pro’s do not use it much, but I suggest that is more than outweighed by the Facebook community using the family group tool.)

If people are continuing to test at the same rate, I should (statistically) be getting a similar number and range of matches as heretofore. That is not happening. Is this why some firms are now pushing services such as ‘Traits’, photo-trickery, the services of ‘Ask an expert’ and offering genealogy tourism?

Fr Tod Umptious

I know nothing about any of this but I'm interested in my family history and have done a bit of research over the years on Ancestory when they had a free trial etc.

But I've noticed over the last few years a total drop off in advertising for DNA test kits on TV or online.

They used to be fairly prevalent around this time of year.

I think people are coming to realize that their DNA is no unique to them and there are considerations about sharing your DNA.

My wife found out about a first cousin she never knew she had because another first cousin did a test and it all was revealed. It caused a fair bit of upset within my wife's family.

So who within a family has the right to share the family DNA?

I think people are realizing this and are shying away from going full on with DNA tests.

pinkypinky

I figured out a 25cM match this week & have added approx 30 new people to my tree.

It is slowing, yes, but I'm not worried. There's still a lot to be found and DNA is just one of those tools.

FraserburghFreddie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119315032#Comment_119315032

I`ve been interested in family history and DNA matching for quite a while.When you mention other matches you manage do you mean other family members?I hope you don`t mind me asking this as I struggle to find connections with many of my DNA matches and have only been able to get back as far as UK census results allow.

pinkypinky

Autosomal DNA matches are only going to get you to about 6th cousins (and the 4-6 range is much harder to prove).

By testing other members of your family, preferably older ones, you can gather more info.

For preference, you start with the oldest members of your family. I never got to do any of my grandparents or my Dad, but I do have a now late great-aunt tested. I've also collected my mother, brother, myself. My parents have 6 siblings between them and I have 5 of them tested now. I also have a cousin on each side for each of my parents. This allows a really good chance of narrowing down a match to a set of my great-grandparents.

I didn't do all of these people at once or on the same site. You want to fish in all the pools. Some of these people paid for their own test, but I paid for most of them. I manage their kits.

Hermy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120041754#Comment_120041754

No I don't mind you asking at all Freddie.

The other DNA tests I manage include a sibling who like me is adopted and one who's not as well as tests belonging to my in-law's.

If you have any particular brick walls you'd like some help with feel free to start a new thread about them and I'm sure you'll get some good advice on how to break through them.

blue5000

I think the slowdown could be due to people going back to work since the pandemic ended.

cobham

Just reading over this topic for first time. I wonder if DNA testing is getting a bad press these days is the use of data bases to identify criminals. Also there are a lot of TV programs about family background/inheritance/adoption that might make people shy away from any potential skeletons in family history or even present day family secrets?

pinkypinky

I think people are still remarkably ill-informed about what DNA testing can uncover.

I'm always careful to highlight this to new clients - even a few generations back, if you work at it enough, you can find that skeleton.