A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119111231#Comment_119111231

The poster (not the OP) was quoting aggregate deposit rates from 2021, without reference to where the savings were on the income distribution.

He's refusing to countenance how radically the economic picture has shifted since 2022. It's not news that aggregate deposits were up in '21.

Median and lower income families of course are seeing their savings from the previous year shredded. Only the most obtuse would refuse to acknowledge that with inflation running at its current rate.

Pussyhands

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119110489#Comment_119110489

Correction, 100k houses to be available.

If the foreign tech workers leave and the foreign students start to leave, that's going to free up accomodation. Then when downward pressure on prices happens, government will phase out the 30k HTB meaning prices drop even more.

Then suddenly people turn from "get a mortgage at all costs as prices are only going up" to "sure maybe renting for another couple years isn't so bad as who knows if there'll be job cuts at my company and house prices seem to be coming down now"

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119110054#Comment_119110054

This is the type of complacency that does not appreciate the risk of populism gaining ground. For a low paid worker that is renting, the last 7 years they have had a job, yes that's fine, but they have progressively gotten poorer because their salary has not increased meaningfully while their rent and their general cost of living has. Effectively, these people feel that the system is working against them and they have no reason to support the economic growth model the government are arguing for and implementing. They have no stake in a booming property market as they rent; and they have no interest in hearing MNC workers are high earners as that makes no difference to them. This is why I can understand why some people would indicate that a recession might not be such a bad thing as they would see cheaper housing costs, cheaper goods etc.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119108406#Comment_119108406

yes most older generations are indeed far better off, but public policy is more aligned with their wants and needs, but this is coming at a cost to younger generations, i.e. their own kids, grandkids, nieces and nephews. this approach is now starting to collapse, which means older generations are also gonna be in deep sh1t very very soon, as they age, their needs may not be fulfilled, i.e. their health care needs etc etc..... so get ready!

FintanMcluskey

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119111514#Comment_119111514

During which recession they will have no jobs regardless.

Housing gets cheaper during a recession but it doesn't get any more affordable, neither do goods or services.

NSAman

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119110482#Comment_119110482

Females treated no more than cattle? Really? While the church was still in power to a degree, it was a time when questioning and examination for most people started.

you really think the society is better now? Maybe gay rights, perhaps the loss of church power, in many other respects society was much poorer but more stable than now.

anyhoo, off topic.. considering Leo’s comments at Davos (a slowdown) it proves the guy cannot read all the signs that are there.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119111748#Comment_119111748

ah i d say people like leo know full well whats very likely to happen, but since our financial and economic systems are so easily spooked, we must tippy toe around the place!

Pussyhands

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119111720#Comment_119111720

Foreigners will emigrate at the first sign of economic trouble. In April 2009 - April 2010, 75% of emigrants were foreign nationals.

No idea how you say things don't get more affordable. Rent was far more affordable in 2012 than it is now. In 2012 I paid 55 a week for accommodation in a house as a student. A job I had for a few hours a week paid my rent.

NSAman

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119111853#Comment_119111853

Maybe in the past rent was more affordable PH, with the flood of private landlords leaving the system all that are left are the corporate (tax free) landlords. While rents would have fallen now the “return” is what’s important.

i don’t see any of this ending well for any renter.

thjis is not just an Irish issue, I see it playing out in many countries.

FintanMcluskey

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119111853#Comment_119111853

 In 2012 I paid 55 a week for accommodation in a house as a student. A job I had for a few hours a week paid my rent.

How much higher was the rent in 2006 for the same standard of accommodation? Id guess not much higher

After the last recession house prices dropped by 50% but rents only dropped by 20%

https://www.rtb.ie/images/uploads/general/prtb-rent-index-report-2007-2012.pdf

In addition the declines in house prices are more severe than the decline experienced in rent. From quarter 3, 2007 to quarter 4, 2012 house prices have fallen by close to 50 per cent, while market rents have fallen by just under 22 per cent.

Is a 20% rent drop really worth the recession fantasies some here have?

I certainty don't think so, and I sure as **** don't think its fair to wish negative equity on those who have worked and saved their bollix off to buy a house recently, all in the name of a 20% rent reduction

Pussyhands

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119112009#Comment_119112009

Past performance does not indicate future results.

I have no idea of the rental market before I started renting but I'd imagine that rent pre crash was low anyways considering everyone thought rent was dead money and everyone was given any amount of money for a mortgage.

Boggles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119111748#Comment_119111748

you really think the society is better now? Maybe gay rights

Everybody's rights.

Boggles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119111664#Comment_119111664

Half my estate left school at 16 or before and got the boat.

We have never had the wealth of educational and employment opportunities like we do now.

Honestly anyone claiming that the 80s were better than now, either didn't live through that horrific decade or have some serious drugged to the eyeballs tinted glasses on.

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119111514#Comment_119111514

Well said. I don't think the government have any idea how much anger is out there at the state of the rental/housing market. Some people will be wishing a recession in order to change the situation no matter the other consequences.

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119112399#Comment_119112399

Yep I did my Leaving Cert in the 1980s and it was grim, very grim. With an air of menace too (especially in Dublin). For the majority you left school and you left the country.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119112399#Comment_119112399

...once again, the argument isnt about the 80's being better than now, it certainly wasnt in many ways, i know, i lived it myself, and amongst fairly serious poverty at that, thankfully my family was reasonably well sheltered from it, but i definitely seen many neighbors in dire straits, and many still area, possible even worse...

again, wealth inequality is now far worse, which means its now becoming impossible for many people to meet their most critical of needs, most evident in property, i.e. access to education and training is now far easier, but even with that, securing property needs is now rapidly declining, with no clear solutions in place

yes, employment is definitely far more abundant now, but the quality of a lot of that work is actually very poor, and arguably rapidly declining, particularly in relation to pay and conditions, compared to the cost of living, labour markets has now been suppressed so much, we re now experiencing a rapid increase in people unable to meet their most critical of needs, yet also experiencing a rapid growth in wealth, hence leading to a rapid growth in wealth inequality. we ve effectively taken one step forward but two steps back

Boggles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119112858#Comment_119112858

.once again, the argument isnt about the 80's being better than now, it certainly wasnt in many ways

But what are you referencing what you think is todays problems now with?

You say something like this

but the quality of a lot of that work is actually very poor, and arguably rapidly declining, particularly in relation to pay and conditions

Are you saying working conditions and pay are worse now than in 1980s Ireland? 😕

When it comes to housing, the market is a basket case, it wasn't that long ago we were bulldozing estates. Now there is a shortage, who would have thunk it.

Inflation will decrease, the worlds supply issues will over correct and more houses will be built.

In 10 years time we will probably have too many.

85603

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119107722#Comment_119107722

If you're hoping for the EU to break up don't bother. even if it broke up on a Monday by Friday there'd be a newly modelled European institution that looked very similar.

Nobody wants the hassle of visas and border taxes. The very best case scenario for EU skeptics now is the EU somehow dies, but then you just get some sort of new acronym/initialism, the United Group of European Countries or whatever.

Too much trade and population intermingling between the big continental countries. They're so interdependent now that the point has been reached where interdependence is the new-normal, the default.

And once the big lads are in then the smaller economies naturally get pulled in by trade gravity.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119113630#Comment_119113630

If you're hoping for the EU to break up don't bother. even if it broke up on a Monday by Friday there'd be a newly modelled European institution that looked very similar.

He said a return to the particular focus of the EEC as an economic zone instead of the more bloated EU we have nowadays. Not that it would break up.

Tony EH

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119107740#Comment_119107740

There needs to be a drastic reset in how we do things economically. We really do need to abandon this neo-liberal boom and bust faux economics approach where bubbles are allowed to form and then pop, leaving only those with enough wealth to weather the storm until the whole nonsense starts again, while the rest have their lives shattered and have to just get by.

Prices keep getting jacked up and up and in the space of just 15 years we're back to where we were in 2008. The Putin/Russia thing is just the icing on the cake, because prices were going up before he started his little crusade.

It cannot keep going like this.

joseywhales

Is it time to start burying gold bars in fields yet?

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119114400#Comment_119114400

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pAxkpE96Wj0&t=17s

I got the gold right here Pa

Fandymo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119113630#Comment_119113630

So you are countering my argument that the EU should just be a free travel/trading bloc by saying that the best we can hope for is that it reverts to a free trade/travel bloc??

Countering my argument, with my argument. Interesting debating technique

Mullinabreena

If a recession happens I don't think it will be like 2009 where property prices crashed too. There was an abundance of houses back then unlike now. I'm sure there will be a drop in prices but nothing like the last recession.

Pussyhands

The media still haven't copped on.

Here we have RTE saying the World Bank says the Ukraine war MAY trigger a recession but when you read his quote, he says it's hard to see us avoiding a recession

"As we look at the global GDP, it's hard right now to see how we avoid a recession," Malpass said. He gave no specific forecast.

"The idea of energy prices doubling is enough to trigger a recession by itself," he said.

Fertiliser has over doubled already.

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2022/0526/1301249-world-bank-on-ukraine-war/

Amenhotep

Can't they just say **** it , and do business with Russia again, that'll at least reduce prices on energy a bit ...

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119115529#Comment_119115529

We were facing a recession before both covid and Ukraine came along... it was merely deferred until later, and will likely be worse than it should have been because of it. The EU and the world economy has been stumbling for quite a few years now, and Ireland is very connected to both.

hayse

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119115684#Comment_119115684

If you are happy to deal with people who rape one year olds work away.

Pussyhands

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119115777#Comment_119115777

The yanks did the same thing out abroad too.

Somehow all the bad things the yanks do is forgotten.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119112948#Comment_119112948

rapidly rising wealth inequality is a very complex thing to explain and understand, i still struggle with it myself, but i can certainly see it in action, i believe us humans feel it more than actually see it. humans tend to feel this effect in rising levels of anxiety and stress, which tends to lead to rising levels of whats called 'maladaptive copying strategies', i.e. dysfunctional social behaviors etc etc etc.

again, yes work conditions were very poor in the 80's, but the difference in pay and the ability of people being able to afford their most critical of needs such as the security of property werent as much as they are now. for example, as you said, many of your friends were forced to leave the country during the 80's, in order to provide themselves with their needs, i suspect many of those eventually were able to do so, i.e. were able to eventually purchase their own homes, even though this was extremely difficult for most, it more than likely eventually happened for most. we re now in a situation whereby a growing number of people, particularly younger people, are now unable to do this, the difference between pay and the actual cost of doing so are simply too great, and it doesnt matter what they do, or dont do, many simply may never be able to. this is exactly what rising wealth inequality is and does.

again, completely agree, our housing situation is a complete basket case, and sadly, this actually was foreseen, countries such as america have been dealing with this long before we have been, its been clearly obvious for decades now, that our approaches to property were going to fail, at the height of the previous crash, it was actually known that the dublin region was quickly running out of availability, while most of us were talking about ghost estates!

we have no clue whats going to occur, in regards inflation, many seem to be stuck into thinking current inflation is similar to the 70's, yet our world is now radically different, and both eras are now no longer comparable, baring in mind, current inflation is more so due to supply and energy shocks, and the fact since the 70's, we have flooded the planet with primarily credit based debt, the methods used to control inflation in the 70's/80's, raising rates, more than likely will fail. the most likely outcome of this approach is the increase in defaults, in both the public and private domains. baring in mind, all of our most critical needs and now in rapid decline, i.e. our property needs, our health care needs, and of course our environmental needs. a rapid increase in investment, particularly in the public domain, is currently needed to resolve these issues, but we re now in the process effectively of declining, and rapidly in many ways, i.e. we re effectively going in the wrong direction.....

you seem so sure of this correction, but wheres your evidence to support this? we ve known about these issues for decades!

again, we ve known about our property problems for about 15 years, and the situation has rapidly deteriorated!