A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

PokeHerKing

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121847588#Comment_121847588

I'm not complaining about anything. Just responding to posts claiming business model for banks is different now to pre GFC.

herbalplants

https://www.businesspost.ie/tech/irish-founded-inscribe-lays-off-40-of-employees/?utm_content=sked_65f6e3fd48566464eda7c8e1&utm_medium=social&utm_name=sked&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR2zzyUTchfBlHrdjPQA6hgZnxSBU3dWEAg0tpotfPOTZNry_2fdIvDD4mo

Laying off 40% staff

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121906481#Comment_121906481

Most start ups fail.

Dohnjoe

I like how this has gone from selectively posting "bad" financial news to selecting quoting any lay-offs.

Almost as if some are attempting to will a global recession into existence..

893bet

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121908704#Comment_121908704

Not to mention that the layoffs before are not related to any type of recessionary forces…..the opposite…….…due to technological advances of AI.

The “S curve” trajectory. AI truely is a disruptive technology that should make a lot of people nervous.

CatLick

This is likely to happen. However, after 2 years, AI will fall flat on it's face similar to the dot com boom. Companies will then resume hiring meat based workers as they know what they are getting.

herbalplants

Nuts.

Turkey's central bank unexpectedly raised interest rates by 500 basis points to 50% today, citing a deteriorating inflation outlook and pledged to tighten further if significant and persistent deterioration in inflation is foreseen.

The hawkish surprise came 10 days before nationwide local elections and was seen by analysts as a signal that the central bank was independent from any political constraints and determined to tackle price rises.

SharkMX

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121806653#Comment_121806653

There is always a graph to say the sky has fallen in the past. The problem they have is they cant actually tell you the next time it will fall. But people love posting them as some sort of proof that they know when the sky will fall again.

SharkMX

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121917016#Comment_121917016

Our company were going to outsource about 30 jobs this year. Some bright spark said that AI would do the job for them within 2 years.

Company cancelled the outsourcing plans kept on the staff they were going to lay off and will lay them off "when" AI can take over in 2 years. The staff concerned know nothing of it.

Being privy to the detail I can tell you that it was attempt to save money by outsourcing, but then they moved to thinking they can save even more money by not outsourcing and getting AI to do the job. Its never going to work, but some charismatic AI evangelist got to speak to the decision makers and made them see dollar signs.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121925862#Comment_121925862

...due to the complexities involved, nobody can accurately predict such events, as was the case with the 08 crash, but some did realise its causes were evident prior to, and surprise surprise, those same voices are once again being ignored, we really do have a serious problem with credit/private debt!

brickster69

Euroclear are not going to give away someones interest earnt to a third party now. Fancy spending 2 years on such a stupid idea which could put at risk a whole financial system. How some of these politicians have a job i never know.

https://www.politico.eu/article/euroclear-missing-profits-ukraine-eu-russia-assets/

Deub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121927652#Comment_121927652

Which voices though. They are several people claiming a recession is imminent because of X or Y or Z. Few will be right and most will be wrong. Which one to believe ?

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121945434#Comment_121945434

Biting your nails about Russia's ill gotten earnings and posting over and over about the fate of it here [on a minor Irish website thread] is a bit pointless.

Ukraine are going to get it eventually I think. 😊 It is hardly going to cause this massive global meltdown whatever happens.

Get Real

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121906481#Comment_121906481

Recession=layoffs.

That does not mean layoffs=recession.

In the article "Additionally, the advances in AI in 2023 present one of the largest opportunities for the financial services ecosystem — enabling improved customer experiences, more efficient processes and fairer decisions.”

Key phrase-more efficient processes (AI)

The firm also has a total of 60 staff.

Don't quite think a layoff of 24 people really indicates a global recession...

There will of course, be a matter of pure timing in this forum at some stage, where articles or theories happen to align with an actual global recession.

And those people will be able to claim they predicted the horizon. When all they really did is throw up the same type of post that has been posted for coming up on two years now.

limnam

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121947199#Comment_121947199

Recession on the horizon or not.

I don't think there's much value in trying to knock credibility of people making the prediction claims.

Raghuram Rajan is often touted as one of the first on the 2008 crash as he was beating the drum from early 2005.

The fact it took another 3 years for the rest of the world to realise what hit them doesn't make his thoughts and opinions any less credible.

We saw it here in Ireland and everywhere else a gang of people warning about it and a gang ignoring it.

eightieschewbaccy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121945434#Comment_121945434

Whenever the war ends, I'm pretty sure some equivalent of the Marshall Plan will need to be utilized. Using Russian oligarchs ill-gotten gains isn't a bad way to do it.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121948520#Comment_121948520

An act like that would shatter confidence in lenders and other financial institutions, which is why most are against it. Only politicians are trumpeting this solution, because politicians only care about votes

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121948608#Comment_121948608

Are "most" against it (am referring here to general idea of taking Russian assets in West or the earnings from them and giving it over to Ukraine, perhaps most likely after the war ends, not specific issue in Brickster's politico article)? The politicians are hardly irrelevant and are the ones who should (and will) make the decision on it.

On the other side the experts (in US/EU/UK financial industry) and its lobbyists and such will be never be for taking any of these assets (or the profits) off Russia because it is obviously going to affect their profits [maybe permanently, for a long time into the future]. It will reduce all investment coming from countries that are hostile to US/EU/UK and may have their own wars and invasions planned for the coming years. It will be another nail in the coffin of the period of globalisation that they (finance) did so well out of (too well imo).

As regards breaking confidence, it would also break the confidence of likes of Russia [and China and others], that the Western countries are in the end completely weakened and made powerless by their own massive greed, and are a bunch of idiots.

They can rob Western companies and investors blind + use the power of the state to cheat them and it seems to barely cause a ripple and is accepted as the natural order of things (somehow), but govt.'s here dare not answer it and always have to respect their rights, no matter what.

rob316

Bored of saying it but 2008 wasn't a recession it was a global financial meltdown. Recessions happen all the time, we are technically in one right now but it's just a cooling down of the economy.

Maybe change title of thread to

"Global financial meltdown on the horizon?"

herbalplants

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121951006#Comment_121951006

Sorry but investopedia called it the Great recession.

What Was the 2008 Great Recession?

The Great Recession was the sharp decline in economic activity that started in 2007 and lasted several years,

Recession and not meltdown!

fly_agaric

Believe period was also called the "Global Financial Crisis"? That sounds more dramatic [if not quite up to level of a "meltdown"].

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121951183#Comment_121951183

Semantics

Recessions happen all the time, but 2008 was more than that, it was a systemic crash, like 1929. It has a whole bunch of names, but just think of it as a global recession + systemic crash.

In early 2023 when several banks started to have issues (stemming from SVB) and that contagion spread to Europe and affecting CS/UBS - some thought it was "2008" all over again. These things come in many different sizes and types.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121953031#Comment_121953031

in fairness it never really spread to Europe. The CS/UBS was down to totally different reasons.

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121954034#Comment_121954034

When it came across the Atlantic, it was a toss-up between DB and CS. Bank stocks were taking a hammering. Neither bank was on the brink of a SVB situation, their fundamentals were relatively "ok", but they'd just both been in the "bad books" for a few years due to bad news. Perceptions. SVB and the ensuing market jitters were most certainly the catalyst.

The Swiss had to "over-respond" but that's the nature of panic, money had to be thrown in the window.

brickster69

Hopefully inflation does not start going higher. It soon adds up with these interest rates and 8 trillion more to be refinanced this year.

https://twitter.com/blackhawkce457/status/1774536875266462069

Deub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121962513#Comment_121962513

and what would happen if the inflation was going up?

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121963384#Comment_121963384

It would mean there would be "alert sirens" on the tweet of the next scary graph. Serious territory.

greyday

They can be broken up by regulators but their positions are so dominant at this stage that it is unlikely, the USA also protects their tech companies very strongl.