Wed, 11th May, 2022

Konny Rool

For any and all meets tomorrow 😊

One I likee is in the 3.25 at Worcester. That is the favourite HIGH STAKES not to win (or lay) . Race is over 2m 7f over hurdles. High Stakes likes to lead, as does No No Maestro (perhaps moreso when chasing) . The third favourite, Go Sacre Go, of NH also is one who may well make/try make the running. It's likely Warren Greatrex's hurdler is the best on show here, but if he's put under pressure, then who knows what'll happen? Hard to see the 2nd and third favs win on known form (although No No Maestro would have a live chance on his chasing tilts). Very hard to make a case for any of the other three.

As well as High Stakes possibly being pressurised, he doesn't really have any form on good going. This is the key for me here. High Stakes last three races have been in classes/grades 1 and 2, and although his jumping has been relatively sound the last twice, he wasn't fluent at times in the first of his four hurdles runs; plus he also fell in his second run. If he's good enough, he could skate in under no pressure - but early on, and the likely faster pace on good ground may well see him err. Also, if good ground aint to his liking, then he might find himself 'in a race' and thusly make a mistake. Or possibly, he may not even be good enough.

4/7 on the probable sp, and is now a general 8/15 shot, he's worth a small lay if money comes and he can be backed at less than 1.5. Have no other opinion on that race, as far as which of the other ones might hit the line in front.

OK , good luck all 😀

Konny Rool

In the Newton Abbot 3.45 the best priced, with 365, 8/11 fav ROSY REDRUM may well win as she likes, she was very impressive (according to footnotes) in her first bumper in a Class 5, came 2nd in an even better one the time after that, and lto she flopped in a quality NH flat race at Aintree. Hard to see her lose, and, to clutch at straws here, all three of them runs were all on close to, or as good as 'good to soft' going; good-good to firm in places tomorrow may find her out, but tis unlikely. I'll try and chance a three place lay anyhow.

One who I feel is a massive price in this is JW Mullins '2nd string' SHARP NOTE and a case can be made for her having sound aitch weigh claims on what will be just her second bumper outing (has had two runs in PtP's). She was out the back, and keen early on lto. Then 5fs out she went wide to track t'leaders. Ended up being beaten only about 14lgths into 5th. Crucially, as I like to say, that was on good ground that Fakenham run, and in a fastly ran race.

If she settles early tomorrow, and is closer to t'pace, then who knows? Available to back at as big as double carpet 33/1, she's a fine e/w bet to mine eye, and SHARP NOTE also worth a lil e/w at 18s or so w/out jolly. Will give her NAP vote 😊

Konny Rool

7.30 Bath DELAHOUSSAYE 9/2

8.00 Bath PLANSINA 5/1

singles and e/w dble for me folks

Good Luck

Konny Rool

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119042743#Comment_119042743

One who I feel is a massive price in this is JW Mullins '2nd string' SHARP NOTE 

Available to back at as big as double carpet 33/1, she's a fine e/w bet to mine eye

Tried to sleep, but just managed a couple of hours, and awake now about two ☹️ 😒

Was expecting to see 25/28-1 before I checked prices - and even then I thought that was well good - and was well happy to see 33s with the 'Book.

Could hardly believe when I saw the previous prices - looks like 66s and 40s were available earlier on in the evening 😲 Flippin eck! Now looks like a best-priced 22/1 shot 😮

Just........ maybe.... possibly.... hopefully 😋

Konny Rool

DABANA 9/4 can get Weld backers off to a flyer in the first at Gowran 1.35. Will forget her last two runs as they were on virtually soft ground, with the latest after an absence. Am putting a lot of stock into her 2yr (a similar showing wouldn't be enough at 3yrs, especially going on the 'clock' , so to speak, but we can only play with the cards that are dealt - true in all walks of life, sadly 😆) old form here where she was an unlucky third over C&D on her first ever run. She came 2nd next time over a mile at Naas on good ground, where she was in the lead until inside the last furlong. Heard it rain last night in my ROI central location, so hopefully it's still dry and the ground is good at the Kilkenny venue. As it stands, and she's currently best-priced 5/2 with 365, a case could be made for her being a 15/8 shot; so we takes our chances.

Warren Beach 6/4 (the reason I looked closer at this race, as when I seen her price, I was thinking about 'lay' possibiliities - serendipity perhaps mebbe 😋) has questions to answer stepping down in trip, so not for me.

Amanirenas 7/2 is absolutely not w/o a chance on only her third run. Didn't run as a 2yr old, and came 4th over today's trip, at Cork, at the start of April. Came 2nd lto at Dundalk over 7fs lto, and was well backed that day. She ran free early there, and was well ahead of the third, and had every chance, but was beaten 1/2lgth by an outsider.

Chestnutter 11/2 has several runs to her name, and been fav for 4 out of 7 of them, and is yet to win. Am not really sure what sort of trip and ground she wants - perhaps 6fs on soft?? I'll defer to the layers here, and consider her 4th best of the raced ones. Ran in some quality races as a two year old, and her 2nd at Leopardstown over 7f does read well enough here. Not for me today, and will leave her off for another time.

EDIT : PS Zaghraf 15/2 of Hogan's doesn't make any appeal on his two runs to date - but it's Hogan, so who knows.

I was going to give Dabana a #NB (as I've already given others a Nap and NB I think) , or a co-NB you might say 😃, but there's reasons (the ground not the least of them) to not go too overboard on anything here.

EDIT no.2 (am tired haha 🙂 ) for some reason Natalie Lupini's unraced 33/1 shot LECALE'S DESTINY is (and I don't know why) lepping off the page. Small enough e/w on this one in a very open/tricky race.

I might have done enough damage, so I'll leave any lays outta the equation 🙂

gd luck

nd gd luck again 😁

Konny Rool

Think I'll leave the rest a Gowran alone - Irish racing, big fields, going "concerns" 😊 - the negative trifecta hit here !

in case I aint mentioned it - good luck to me, j@utis, pottokblue and leffesem and every other punter/boardsie who tunes/chips in, on the "dailies" 🙌

Now I might sleep for the rest of the day - my work is done here 😎 Might keep myself "on call" , just in case 🙂 😃 Is that a cheer or a groan I hear? 😁

Konny Rool

7.10 Perth and MONSIEUR CO 6/1 is the first and #only one I looked at here, and Keith Dalgleish's nine yr old gelding does look a solid e/way bet here at 6is 😃 Seems to have taken a long time in his (38 in total in the sphere) chase career to have stepped up to 2 1/2m's + , and though he hasn't won at the aforementioned trip, and above, as of yet; since his 4th placing at Sedgefield in January, he has acquitted himself mighty fine in defeat, with his staying on third over two+ furlongs lto at Ayr in a higher grade being a decent piece of form in t'context of today's race... unexposed at nine?? who'd a thunk it 🤗 Looks 'progressive' to me, and has Hughesie on top.

#Only three above the pick in the betting, so was obliged out of probity to give those three a look. Have to say the 5/2 fav Seemingly So from the in-form Morgan stable looks the one to beat, but he carries a penalty and has to lump a massive 12-8 -with no cond or amateur jock to offset that burden. No reason to think it, but could well be a non 😋 Just a wild speculative guess.

Having had a look, it seems that racing prominent is the way to go at this track, and the selection MC did just this at Muss (over shorter) three runs back, and finished a very close 3rd. Monsieur Co has raced mainly round mid-div in his last two races, so will hope he's 'in the van' today, or 'the box seat' / whatever.... up with the pace anyhow.

Speaking of Perth, and being ''up with the pace'' , and with reference made to having looked at the ''three above him in the betting'' , I'm thinking that this won't suit the 7yr old mare Calle Malva 5/1, who has flopped in her two most recent runs at that Scottish venue, has that "hold-up merchant" - Looks, and they can be deceiving, to be a 'banker' as regards a place-lay here. #Nothing doing there unfortunately atm on BF, as her 'win' price with the books is nowhere near commensurate [for want of a correcter word 😂 ] to the price one would expect they might get to 'lay her for a place' .. We'll hold fire on that one so.. Can back her at 3.8 (just over 11/4) to fill one of the first three atm, so obviously others are thinking the same as me - I doubt she'll even get down to 5/4 (2.25 on the machines) as far as pl-lays go, and even that is bigger than what i'd like... Can be backed at just above evs (2.03) for 4 places, so might put her in at 11/10ish (2.1) and hope for some takers!

Speaking of lays; in my OP I tried to get the 8/15 fav beat, and stated that High Stakes was worth a lay at 1.5 or less - I've gone against mine own advice, and laid him at various prices in the 1.7s region. I think the ground gets the best of Warren's horse here 😕

I'm still awake - how much longer I don't know, and I don't particularly care about anyone who doesn't care 😁 If it wasn't for a bit of 'waxing lyrical' about the 'topic at hand' and inanities in general, then there'd be little point in posting 🤣

gd luck

Good luck with your picks Konny, esp that bumper one! ya gots a noice proice dere 😁

Enjoy your bitta kip, if ya've vaynchoored to your 'laba' 😁

Liked your write-ups in the York Thread - very informative 👍️

I'm a Bielsa fan meself,,, hope he does the biz for messrs Ryan and Stott 🙋

Not been doing a stellar amount of study me - will try and chip in now and again :)

gluck everybody 😊 ,,,,, and WD potto on your recent massive pot !! some touch that 😲!

j@utis

5:30 Bath - I'm torn between Street Parade and Equally Fast to reverse the tables with the fav Symbol of Hope, they're 9 & 8 pounds respectively better off today. Strike rate of Street Parade's trainer/jockey combo is very discouraging with 0 winners last 12 months here. Equally Fast is 10yo veteran, so yeah. I dunno, maybe just go with fav 🤣

Konny Rool

I think it's between no's 1 and 2, Symbol Of Hope 5/2 and Equally Fast 11/1 in the 5.30 Bath. Hooray Henry a possible for his recent owner and career long trainer, on his third run for 'owner' H Candy. Symbol Of Hope win, Hooray Henry win, Equally Fast each way..

Can't see the well-backed Clashaniska doing much here; don't see the 6yr old getting involved (2 far back early?) on his first run for Wintle - but it aint as if I've not called stuff wrong already today. place lay.

Think it's pillar to post for Symbol Of Hope today

good luck, have fun, and don't invade threads to start arguments with posters 🤣

j@utis

I ended up backing nothing in that 5:30, and it was right thing to do at the end. Symbol of Hope drifted crazy and not without a reason.

Konny Rool

Life's A Beach , Bear To Dream and Amjad for mes in the last at Bath